Tag: inflation
Macro Market Update: Inflation Showing Signs Of Life
Key Takeaway: Inflation expectations have been muted, but core inflation measures have started to move higher. This could put some upward pressure on bond...
Forecasting Inflation: A Cyclic And Historic Analysis Of CPI
The past seven years has seen extraordinary monetary policy employed by the Federal Reserve to satisfy its dual mandate of price stability and full...
The Inflation-Factor In The History Of Interest Rates
Neil Irwin had a really good write-up at The Upshot this week about the history of interest rates. He made the case that low...
O Wage Inflation, Where Art Thou?
The labor markets have been improving steadily since the financial crisis. Some people would argue that the US is at or near full employment....
Are Low Inflation Expectations Limiting A Fed Rate Hike?
“Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime...
Michael Lebowitz Interview: Data Not Supportive Of Fed Rate Hike
With the FOMC meeting concluding and an announcement set to come shortly, I thought it would be worthwhile to share a recent interview that I did...
The Fed And Its Recent History Of Unrealized Expectations
The Echoing Conundrum
“With the Federal Reserve (Fed) conducting their regularly scheduled FOMC meeting this Wednesday, we point out an interesting contrast between the current...
Why The S&P 500 Is Really Flat The Past 16 Years
So the S&P 500 is just a good day away from new highs. Also, it is more than 33% above the previous major peak...
Federal Reserve Stays The Course But Economic Data Telling
Over the past several weeks, I have laid out details for why I feel interest rates will continue to trend lower. In a nutshell, I...
Inflation Adjusted Stock Market Returns At Historic Juncture
Some investors put capital at risk with the hope of outperforming the cost of living (i.e. Inflation). One of the more popular investments in...
