Posts From Michael Lebowitz

Michael Lebowitz
Michael Lebowitz, CFA is the founder of 720 Global. 720 Global is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management. 720’s objective is to provide professional investment managers with unique and relevant information that can be incorporated into their investment process to enhance performance and marketing. 720 assists our clients in differentiating themselves from the crowd with a focus on value, performance and a clear, lucid assessment of global market and economic dynamics. Michael has over 25 years of financial markets experience. In this time he has managed $50 billion+ institutional portfolios as well as sub $1 million individual portfolios. Throughout his career he has been an astute follower of markets and developed a keen sense for the macro factors that drive markets and economies. You can read more about Michael on his website www.720global.com.
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Echo Chamber: Why The Market’s Optimism Is Misplaced… Again

Echo Chamber Since the U.S. economic recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, institutional economists began each subsequent year outlining their well-paid view of how things will transpire over the course of the coming 12-months. Like a broken record, they have continually over-estimated expectations for growth, inflation, consumer spending and capital…

Villanova versus Kansas: Outcome versus Process Strategies

Outcome versus Process Strategies It is that time of year when the markets play second fiddle to debates about which twelve seed could be this year’s Cinderella in the NCAA basketball tournament. For college basketball fans, this particular time of year has been dubbed March Madness. The widespread popularity of…

Party Like It’s 1999: Equity Valuations At Historic Levels

Valuations Compared with Fundamentals “Today’s equity market valuations have only been eclipsed by those of 1929, and 1999.” Given the continuing equity market rally and multiple expansion, the quote above from prior articles, had to be modified slightly but meaningfully. As of today, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Cyclically Adjusted Price…

The Sure Thing: What Could Possibly Go Wrong For Investors?

The New England Patriots pulled off a stunning come-from-behind victory in Super Bowl LI, and one that was truly unprecedented in American football. Throughout modern NFL history, playoff teams that had a 19 point lead or greater in the fourth quarter, as the Atlanta Falcons did, were 93-0. A Patriots…

“Fed Up” Book Review: Taking A Look Behind The Curtain

Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Dallas Federal Reserve official, released a new book this week entitled Fed Up. The book, a first-person account of the inner-workings of the Federal Reserve (Fed), provides readers with unique insight into the operations, leadership, and mentality of what is unquestionably the world’s most powerful…

The Lowest Common Denominator: Debt

At a recent investment conference, hedge fund billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller predicted that interest rates would continue rising. Specifically, he suggested that, consistent with the prospects for economic growth, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could reach 6.00% over the next couple of years. Druckenmiller’s track record lends credence to his economic…

Great Expectations: S&P 500 CAPE Ratio In Historic Territory

“Never ever lose sight of long term relationships” Paul Krake – View from the Peak Throughout 2016 we highlighted that various measures of equity valuations are at historically high levels and present an unfavorable risk/reward profile. Comparing valuation metrics to their respective longer term averages is a good way to…

Why Wall Street’s S&P 500 Price Forecasts Don’t Add Up

As we dig through several 2017 S&P 500 price forecasts, we discover that a majority of “Wall Street’s top strategists” are calling for a year-end S&P 500 price in the 2,300-2,450 range. None of the forecasters expect a down year for the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX), but that’s an article…

Hoover’s Folly: How Trump’s Trade Policies May Effect Stocks

Donald Trump’s rhetoric about current and future trade policy has been strong (and critical). And considering that this has been one of his major talking points, it’s important for investors to understand the full scope of implications. Herein, we provide in-depth research on how Trump’s trade policies may effect stock…