Posts From Michael Lebowitz

Michael Lebowitz
Michael Lebowitz, CFA is the founder of 720 Global. 720 Global is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management. 720’s objective is to provide professional investment managers with unique and relevant information that can be incorporated into their investment process to enhance performance and marketing. 720 assists our clients in differentiating themselves from the crowd with a focus on value, performance and a clear, lucid assessment of global market and economic dynamics. Michael has over 25 years of financial markets experience. In this time he has managed $50 billion+ institutional portfolios as well as sub $1 million individual portfolios. Throughout his career he has been an astute follower of markets and developed a keen sense for the macro factors that drive markets and economies. You can read more about Michael on his website www.720global.com.
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Rewriting History: The Federal Reserve’s Epic Policy Bet

Chasing the Dragon “There is no other agency of government which can overrule actions that we take.” – Alan Greenspan The Federal Reserve (Fed) currently expects real economic growth for the foreseeable future to average below 2.00%. Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European region are forecasting an even more…

Fed Gibberish… And The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma

#FedGibberish Recently on my Twitter feed, @michaellebowitz, I introduced the hashtag #fedgibberish. The purpose was to tag Federal Reserve members’ comments that highlight desperate efforts to rationalize their inane monetary policy in the post-financial crisis era. This past week there were two quotes by Fed members and one by the…

Are U.S. Consumers Getting Exhausted… By Debt?

Consumption Exhaustion When people use the word catalyst to describe an event that may prick the stock market bubble, they usually discuss something singular, unexpected and potentially shocking. The term “black swan” is frequently invoked to describe such an event. In reality, while such an incident may turn the market…

Monetary Stimulus: How Much Is Too Much?

The amount of monetary stimulus increasingly imposed on the financial system creates false signals about the economy’s true growth rate, causing a vast misallocation of capital, impaired productivity and weakened economic activity. To help quantify the amount of stimulus, please consider the graph above. Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary stimulus comes…

Why A Recession May Be Right Around The Corner

An Indicator of Peril Thanks to Jesse Felder, we recently stumbled upon a measure of economic conditions that has reliably signaled every recession since 1948. The data point, Real Value Added, is currently in negative territory and may, therefore, be a harbinger of an economic downturn. If it is a…

Complacency: 22 Troublesome Facts About This Market

Below are 22 realities to explain why 720Global does not recommend following the herd. From stock market valuations to U.S. economic data to Federal Reserve policy, investors are taking on more risk. And they are being lulled into complacency with high prices and sooth-sayers.  Careful here. Without further adieu, here…

Bonds With Equity-Like Risk/Returns: High Yield IEDs

“What we’re seeing is an increase in the evolutionary pace of IED (improvised explosive device) design. It’s increasing at a pace we previously haven’t seen.” – Ben Venzke The traditional benchmark asset allocation is 60/40 – 60% in stocks, 40% in bonds. Such a “balanced” allocation is considered to be…

Decoding Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve Message

“I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant” – Alan Greenspan On July 12, 2017 in her semiannual testimony to Congress, Janet Yellen stated the following: “the Federal Funds rate would not…