Global Markets

U.S. Corn Futures Weekly Outlook: All Is Quiet

Last week, May Corn futures closed down 2 1/4 cents per bushel, finishing at $3.86 1/4. The April WASDE report had few surprises and Corn may be in for some additional consolidation.  Here’s a recap of the WASDE report along with my analysis and short-term forecast. On Tuesday the USDA…

Alcoa’s (AA) Rallies As US Sanctions Spur Aluminum Prices

Alcoa’s (AA) stock price traded 7% higher on Monday morning, after Aluminium prices popped by as much as 3%. The market is evaluating the impact of the recently-announced US sanctions to be imposed on Russian oligarchs. The sanctions include Oleg Deripaska, who owns a stake in the world’s second largest…

U.S. Corn Futures Weekly Market Outlook: Bulls Dig In

Last week MAY corn futures closed UP ¾-CENTS per bushel week-on-week, finishing at $3.88 ½. It has been a rough ride lately for the corn market as volatility has picked up due to tariffs and trade war rhetoric. But the bulls are hanging in there pretty well. Weekly Highlights and…

Market Divergence: U.S. 10-Year Yield Premium Widens vs Dollar

US yield gap continues to widen versus countries like Japan, Germany, and the rest of the G-7. Over the last several years both the yield premium over G-7 and the US dollar have moved together. Recently, the pair has diverged with the dollar declining and the pair widening. Assuming we…

U.S. Corn Futures Market Outlook: Brazil Is The Wild Card

May corn futures closed down 7 3/4-cents per bushel week-on-week, finishing at $3.82 3/4. Let’s review the latest corn news, usda data, and analysis for the week ahead (March 19). Weekly Highlights and Takeaways: 1.  Weekly export sales in corn totaled 98.6 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year, which…

U.S. Corn Futures Weekly Outlook: Pullback Odds Rise

May corn futures closed up 10 3/4-cents per bushel week-on-week, finishing at $3.85 1/4. Let’s review the latest corn news, USDA data, and analysis for the week ahead (March 5). Weekly Highlights and Takeaways 1.  The resurgence in U.S. corn export business continued this week with weekly U.S. corn export…

Global Trade Indicators Point Another Year Of Growth In 2018

A few data points have come out on global trade over the past week so it’s worth taking a look at what has been a really key theme for the global economic recovery and acceleration that we have been seeing. Indeed, the global trade slowdown (basically a near-miss global recession) in 2015/16…

U.S. Corn Futures Weekly Outlook: Into Price Resistance

March corn futures closed up 5 1/2-cents per bushel week-on-week, finishing at $3.67 ½. Corn bulls will look to extend the near-term rally but overhead price resistance looms (3.69 / 3.75). A strong move above 3.75 could put 4 dollar corn back on the radar. Let’s review the latest news,…

Chinese Market Concerns? 3 Charts To Watch

The latest official PMI data out of China showed a slowing of momentum in the manufacturing sector (51.3 in January vs 51.6 in Dec and a peak of 52.4 in Sep 17), while non-manufacturing improved further (55.3 vs 55 in Dec). The improvement in non-manfacturing was largely a services story,…

Global Markets Rally In Face Of Tightening Central Banks

The stock market continues to celebrate tax reform, as corporations are starting to release improved earnings due to reduced tax bills. The financial markets are hungrily anticipating and receiving share buybacks to accompany improved earnings. But at the same time, central banks are shifting into slowdown mode. The Federal Reserve…