Investing Research

2017 S&P 500 Operating Earnings Outlook: Estimates Lowered

Stocks keep making new highs, and corporate earnings keep getting downwardly revised. That about sums up the current state of affairs in U.S. equities.  With momentum as strong as it is, markets have turned a blind eye to multiples. Consequently, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 large cap…

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2017 S&P 500 Operating Earnings Outlook: Estimates Lowered

Stocks keep making new highs, and corporate earnings keep getting downwardly revised. That about sums up the current state of affairs in U.S. equities.  With momentum as strong as it is, markets have turned a blind eye to multiples. Consequently, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 large cap…

Chart Spotlight: Is Inflation Lurking Around The Corner?

Monitoring Inflation I was scanning through some charts today and found something that I found quite amazing in regard to inflation expectations. The chart below depicts the spread between the ten-year U.S. breakeven minus the five-year U.S. breakeven inflation rates. What are inflation breakevens? These indices are calculated by subtracting…

Investor Sentiment Indicators Suggest Near-Term Caution

The equity markets enter the second half of the first quarter sitting at new record highs. Stocks were supported last week by stronger-than-expected economic reports. Improving business conditions and the outlook for tax and regulatory reform are fueling confidence among investors, consumers and manufacturers. The popular averages have made a string of…

Inside The Markets: 5 Charts For Active Investors (February 22)

It’s time for another round of macro technical charts as investors attempt to weigh the risk to reward ratio across several markets (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at 5 charts with important technical price developments.  Even if you’re not…

Stock Market Futures Trading Outlook For February 22

S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Considerations For February 22, 2017 Bullish action still holds with higher support today. We tested a new high and pulled back a bit, but charts hold steady.  Caution with breakouts are still advised and looking to support zones to initiate longs remains the best bet for risk averse trading. Buying pressure will…

S&P 500 Valuations Highest Since 2002… But Does It Matter?

his post was written by Derek Benedet of Richardson GMP. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is now trading at 17.7x consensus estimated earnings for the next 12 months. That is the highest valuation for the S&P since 2002, over 14 years ago. But should we care? In this edition of the…

Crude Oil Price Compression: A Big Move Is Coming

We have an oil market in indecision. Indecision = compression. Crude oil price compression is building energy for a big move. There a variety of influences at play in the crude oil market: (i) with Permian-mania as a new swing producer (quick production switch back on and total production costs…

Major Bear Market Indicator Back To Neutral For Now…

Investors: Keep An Eye On The Credit Markets In a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes we looked at one indicator that has in the past served as a bear market warning for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX):  The Fed SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey). Prior to the dot-com bust, and the…

Stock Market Futures Trading Outlook For February 21

S&P 500 Futures Market Considerations For February 21, 2017 ES_F– Bullish action still holds with higher support levels building today.  We have been trapped in a channel after reaching a new high in the Globex event (holiday yesterday).  Pullbacks on the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) will still be bought. Although the chart is not…

Crude Oil Technical Update: Market Bulls Face Hurdles

There’s been very little change in the outlook for crude oil over the past week. Fundamental and technical hurdles remain but from a price perspective, traders are awaiting a major “break” in either direction. Crude Oil Technical Picture West Texas crude oil (WTI) is trading just above $53 per barrel, as it…