Investing Research

Trading The Russell 2000: Here’s A Timing Strategy

In our previous article, we looked at using the small cap Russell 2000 Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:RVX) to better time long entries in the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT). The Takeaway:  Waiting for a 20 day or 50 day peak in the RVX proved to be a consistently favorable long entry on…

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Trading The Russell 2000: Here’s A Timing Strategy

In our previous article, we looked at using the small cap Russell 2000 Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:RVX) to better time long entries in the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT). The Takeaway:  Waiting for a 20 day or 50 day peak in the RVX proved to be a consistently favorable long entry on…

Is The Unemployment Rate “Right”?

The topic of the unemployment rate has come up a lot recently with regards to debates around full employment, wage growth, inflation, the stage of the business cycle, and of course monetary policy. These are all critical inputs into the macro backdrop which is of great relevance to most of…

Stock Market Update & Weekly Trend Outlook – Week 42

THE BIG PICTURE The major stock market indexes are in still moving higher and in strong uptrends. Although we are overdue for a pullback, the best thing for traders to do is follow the price action and avoid getting caught up in the noise and anticipating the next move. If/When…

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For October 16

Stock Market Trading Considerations For October 16, 2017 The grind higher continues to open the week, as the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) ticks up a few points in early morning trade. Key price pivot levels (support and resistance) for today are located below. Check out today’s economic calendar with a full rundown of…

Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Points To Higher Volatility

This article reviews the data from the latest weekly sentiment survey I conduct over on Twitter. The survey measures respondents’ equity and bond positioning/view – differentiating between whether the view is bullish or bearish for technical or fundamental reasoning. The latest results showed a further decline in net bullishness on the equity survey, driven…

U.S. Corn Futures Market Outlook: Are Traders Too Bearish?

U.S. Corn Weekly Highlights and Outlook: On Thursday (10/12) the USDA released the October 2017 WASDE report, which contained updated national and state yield / production estimates for both corn and soybeans. The highlights are as follows: In corn the USDA increased the 2017/18 U.S. corn yield to 171.8 BPA…

COT Report: Non-Commercials Long $SPY, Very Short $VIX

The following are charts and data showing non-commercial futures trading positions as of October 10, 2017. This data was released with the October 13 Commitment of Traders Report (CoT). Note that these charts also appeared on my blog. The charts below looks at non-commercial futures trading positions for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX)…

[VIDEO] Stock Market Update: Where The Big Money Is Made

The stock market continues to make new all-time highs and investors continue to scratch their heads. There’s plenty of room for a pullback, but the broader trend of the market is bullish and moving higher. Beyond that, it is our job to look at the macro picture and discuss the…

S&P 500 Weekly Outlook: Breadth Improving, Sentiment A Concern

In this week’s investing research outlook, I will analyze the current trend of the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX), check in on market breadth and investor sentiment indicators, and discuss current themes and news that we are watching in the financial markets. Here’s a summary of our findings for the week ending October 13, 2017:…

Chart Spotlight: Financial Sector ETF (XLF) Turns Lower

CHART SPOTLIGHT: The Financials Sector ETF – $XLF The S&P Financials Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLF) took a further step down in a move which largely has followed what Treasury yields have done over the last few days. XLF sent a warning on Thursday when it undercut the lows of the prior…