Bonds

Riding The Downward Trend In US Treasuries

Our Elliott wave forecast for treasury bonds continues to hold up well. In June 2017 we described the minor rally during the first part of that year as probably a correction within a new downward trend. Here we chart the two most prominent Elliott wave scenarios for the iShares 20+…

Intermarket Chart Attack: Not Done (Part 2)

This is an Intermarket Analysis chart review that I provided to my fishing club members Wednesday to prepare for the stock market downdraft I expect to continue. These charts are meant to graphically represents relationships (strong and weak) that can foretell how the currents are moving to better identify how stocks/sectors/indices will move! You…

Bond Yield Spreads Don’t Bode Well For Equities

With the recent equity market turmoil, many traders and investors are looking for signposts. Is the sell-off contained to equities and VIX-related ETPs or is there a larger market shift underway? One place to look for clues is in the bond market (roughly twice the size of the global equities…

Are Rising Interest Rates About To Hit A Wall?

Rising interest rates are finally getting some attention here, and by all accounts, investors are concerned! The rate with which treasury yields have moved higher has caught many off guard and may be part of the recent uptick in market volatility. Will interest rates pull back now that the market…

Treasuries Update (TLT): Bond Bulls Have Work To Do

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) On the daily chart (shown below), TLT remains extremely subdued, showing little change over the past seven months. Range bound markets are great to trade after the fact but not the easiest to predict when they are coming. Looking at the chart, you…

Market Seasonality Composite Charts For Stocks & Bonds

Earlier this week, I shared some stock market seasonality charts on my research blog and Twitter feed.  I’d like to highlight a couple of those right here on See It Market. The charts below look back over the past 27 years (1990-2017) and put together a composite yearly seasonality chart….

Stocks To Bonds Ratio (SPY/TLT): Parabolic Rally

One of the more interesting relationships to watch is the price relationship of stocks to bonds. Investors can watch this performance battle using a ratio of the S&P 500 (SPY) to the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). If this SPY/TLT ratio is heading higher, stocks are preferred to bonds….

Macro To Micro Trading Update: Market Themes & Insights

Note that this post went out to my “Gone Fishing” newsletter subscribers this weekend.  You can subscribe here.   Reflections and Inflections The Bloomberg Commodity Index started the year by setting a fresh record for consecutive gains, pushing it up more than 4% over the past month. This helped bring the US 10-year…

Top 10 Charts For Investors To Watch In 2018

I spent a lot of time this past week looking back across 2017.  I reviewed some of my best charts and market/macro calls of the year (along with some of my worst!). I also reviewed some my favorite charts. This article provides a look at some of the most important charts…