Bonds

S&P 500 Technical Trading Outlook: False Moves

Like I have been saying in recent editions of my “On The Mark” newsletter, there will likely be a lot of false breakouts and breakdowns as the market traces out a bullish base. This process takes some time and will stir some emotions as investors see false moves in both directions….

Slippery Signs Coming from the Junk Bond Market

High yield bonds can often serve as a leading indicator for the equity markets. And although indexes which track high yield returns have not yet broken down, the two largest junk bond ETFs have transitioned into a downtrend. The move lower in the junk bond market aligns with the corrective…

Treasury Bonds ETF (TLT): Near-Term Bounce, Long-Term Top?

Treasury bonds have gotten out of favor as investors continue to price in rising interest rates. This has the Treasury Bonds ETF (TLT) testing key price support in what could lead to a bounce near-term. But the broader theme also shows up over the past few years in a potential longer-term…

How To Use The Yield Curve As An Equities Risk On/Off Indicator

The drop in equity markets and subsequent V-shaped rebound has left many traders wondering: “Is it safe to increase long equity exposure?” With pundits on both sides making their case, we wanted to share a useful yield curve ratio to help with your equities positioning. The ratio of the 2…

Market Outlook: Stocks Set To Continue Bounce, Then Fail

The S&P 500 reversed course on Friday and rallied back to new 3-week closing highs. Look for stocks to extend gains into this week before stalling out. Volatility is likely to linger for a while yet. S&P 500 Analysis and Market Cycle Outlook: The S&P 500 moved higher last week,…

Riding The Downward Trend In US Treasuries

Our Elliott wave forecast for treasury bonds continues to hold up well. In June 2017 we described the minor rally during the first part of that year as probably a correction within a new downward trend. Here we chart the two most prominent Elliott wave scenarios for the iShares 20+…

Intermarket Chart Attack: Not Done (Part 2)

This is an Intermarket Analysis chart review that I provided to my fishing club members Wednesday to prepare for the stock market downdraft I expect to continue. These charts are meant to graphically represents relationships (strong and weak) that can foretell how the currents are moving to better identify how stocks/sectors/indices will move! You…

Bond Yield Spreads Don’t Bode Well For Equities

With the recent equity market turmoil, many traders and investors are looking for signposts. Is the sell-off contained to equities and VIX-related ETPs or is there a larger market shift underway? One place to look for clues is in the bond market (roughly twice the size of the global equities…

Are Rising Interest Rates About To Hit A Wall?

Rising interest rates are finally getting some attention here, and by all accounts, investors are concerned! The rate with which treasury yields have moved higher has caught many off guard and may be part of the recent uptick in market volatility. Will interest rates pull back now that the market…