Posts From J. Brett Freeze

J. Brett Freeze
J. Brett Freeze is the principal of Global Technical Analysis. Mr. Freeze has 21 years of experience, having managed capital in both major financial institutions and private investment funds across the major asset classes. He has managed capital autonomously and collaboratively through multiple complete market cycles with a focus on risk management and generating positive investment returns.
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S&P 500 Records 3rd Most Overbought Reading In 10 Years

Since double bottoming 14 months ago, S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) has been on a persistent path higher. This rally has the pushed the large cap index into overbought territory on multiple time frames. Today we’ll focus on a longer-term “monthly” chart of S&P 500 Futures to highlight how overbought this move…

Return On Invested Capital (ROIC): Its Role In Market Valuations

Return: Measurement and Uses In Fiscal Year 2015, companies in the S&P 100 Index, ex-financials, posted Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) of $678.9B. In isolation, this number conveys no information regarding the economic performance of the underlying companies. In order to assess economic performance, we need to calculate Return…

A Crude Awakening: Inside The Bullish Trend For Oil Prices

Our analysis suggested shorting crude oil futures in July 2014 with a break of $101.95 and our model remained short for 6 quarters. On January 20, 2016 (9:43 am) we notified our followers about a potential bottom in oil prices on Twitter: “Using multiple methods, ~$22 seems to be the price…

S&P 500 Valuation Review For April: Still Overvalued

Before we get into the monthly update and charts, let’s discuss a little bit of background on our model and method of analysis. First and foremost, the following is not created with predictive near-term price action in mind. It gets at the heart of current stock market valuations based on a number…

S&P 500 Performance: The Market Correction vs 2016 Rally

The high price in the S&P 500 Index, 2127.83, was reached on May 15, 2015. Over the following 9 months, the S&P 500 declined 14.04% with low price being reached on February 11, 2016. Since that day, the stock market index has rallied 11.56% through the close of trading on March…

Principal Component Analysis For Portfolio Composition

At Global Technical Analysis, our investable universe of futures contracts includes 28 individual markets across 7 asset classes. They can be categorized as follows: Agriculture: ZC, ZS, ZW, HE, LE Energy: CL, NG Equity Index: YM, ES, NQ, TF Foreign Exchange: 6A, 6E, 6B, 6C, 6N, 6S, 6J Interest Rates:…

Forecasting Inflation: A Cyclic And Historic Analysis Of CPI

The past seven years has seen extraordinary monetary policy employed by the Federal Reserve to satisfy its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. The unemployment rate has declined from 10.0% in October 2009 to 4.9% in January 2016. The number of employed persons has increased from 129.974 million…

Japanese Yen Futures: A Historical Trend Perspective

On January 1 we highlighted that “in our opinion, 6JH6 is the single most important currency to watch in 1Q 2016” (i.e. Japanese Yen Futures). What peaked our attention is the fact that after a prolonged trade in both price and time, yen futures settled above our proprietary measure of quarterly…

The Consumer Debt Service Ratio Is Flawed: Here’s Why

Let us start with this simple example: We have a 10-person economy, and 7 people earn $2,000 with $5,000 in debt and 3 people earn $3,000 with $6,000 in debt. All debts require a minimum payment of 2%. In aggregate, total income equals $23,000 and total debt service payments equal…