Posts From Paban Raj Pandey

Paban Raj Pandey
Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 18 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on macro, equities, technical analysis, and derivatives. He shares his thoughts and ideas on his blog www.hedgopia.com.
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S&P 500 Breakout Remains Unlikely Near-Term, Here’s Why

Market dips continue to get bought, as volatility struggles to hold on to gains. On the S&P 500 large cap index (INDEXSP:.INX), bulls forced a break out of 2400 five weeks ago.  Just a few days afterwards, the breakout was defended (Chart 1 below). So far this month, downward pressure…

The COT Report: 3 Charts For Commodities Traders (June 2)

The following are non-commercial futures trading positions as of May 30, 2017. Note that the data were released in the June 2 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). Below are 3 charts of futures trading positions for commodities traders, including Crude Oil, Gold, and the US Dollar. Crude oil: Currently net long 434.8k,…

Inside The COT Report: The Latest Futures Trading Positions

The following are non-commercial futures trading positions as of May 23, 2017. Note that the data were released in the May 26 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). 10-year note May 26 COT Report:  Currently net long 362.5k, up 122.5k. FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting were released Wednesday.  Post-statement,…

S&P 500 Sector Review & Short Interest Update

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the May 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors.   SPDR S&P Materials ETF  (NYSEARCA:XLB) Support at 51-plus was defended yet again on May 18.  At the same time, bulls are having trouble in genuinely rallying XLB (52.89)…

The COT Report: Gold, Crude Oil Rally But Data Mixed

The following is a recap of the recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at Commitment of Traders data and commodity futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of May 9. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this…

COT Report Data (May 5): 3 Charts For Commodities Traders

The following is a recap of the recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at Commitment of Traders data and commodity futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of May 2. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this…

COT Report Data (April 21): 3 Charts For Commodity Futures Traders

The following is a recap of the recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at Commitment of Traders data and commodity futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of April 18. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this…

COT Report Futures Analysis: Gold, Crude Oil, and The US Dollar

The following is a recap of the recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at Commitment of Traders data and futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of April 11. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this blog…

S&P 500 Bottom Indicator? Watch For A VIX Spike Reversal

Wednesday witnessed several potentially important developments in the markets, but the message is not clear-cut. After straddling the 50-day moving average for nearly three weeks, the S&P 500 large cap index (INDEXSP:.INX) lost it yesterday, albeit not by much.  This was the first time the index closed under that average…