Posts From Paban Raj Pandey

Paban Raj Pandey
Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 18 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on macro, equities, technical analysis, and derivatives. He shares his thoughts and ideas on his blog www.hedgopia.com.
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3 COT Charts For Commodities Traders (August 18)

The following are charts and data showing non-commercial futures trading positions as of August 15, 2017. This data was released with the August 18 Commitment of Traders Report (CoT). Note that these charts also appeared on my blog. The 3 charts below look at non-commercial futures trading positions for Crude Oil, Gold, and…

5 Charts That Spell Trouble For Stock Market Rally

Amidst 2Q17 earnings and elevated multiples, some signs of fatigue are showing up on major U.S. stock market indices. Is this leg of the stock market rally nearing an end? As of last Thursday, 2Q17 operating earnings of S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) companies were on course for $30.70.  In the year-ago…

Is The VIX Volatility Index Overdue For A Move Higher?

The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”.  If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990.  In its 27-year history, it closed below 10…

S&P 500 Breakout Remains Unlikely Near-Term, Here’s Why

Market dips continue to get bought, as volatility struggles to hold on to gains. On the S&P 500 large cap index (INDEXSP:.INX), bulls forced a break out of 2400 five weeks ago.  Just a few days afterwards, the breakout was defended (Chart 1 below). So far this month, downward pressure…

The COT Report: 3 Charts For Commodities Traders (June 2)

The following are non-commercial futures trading positions as of May 30, 2017. Note that the data were released in the June 2 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). Below are 3 charts of futures trading positions for commodities traders, including Crude Oil, Gold, and the US Dollar. Crude oil: Currently net long 434.8k,…

Inside The COT Report: The Latest Futures Trading Positions

The following are non-commercial futures trading positions as of May 23, 2017. Note that the data were released in the May 26 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). 10-year note May 26 COT Report:  Currently net long 362.5k, up 122.5k. FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting were released Wednesday.  Post-statement,…

S&P 500 Sector Review & Short Interest Update

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the May 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors.   SPDR S&P Materials ETF  (NYSEARCA:XLB) Support at 51-plus was defended yet again on May 18.  At the same time, bulls are having trouble in genuinely rallying XLB (52.89)…

The COT Report: Gold, Crude Oil Rally But Data Mixed

The following is a recap of the recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at Commitment of Traders data and commodity futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of May 9. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this…