Tag: unemployment
Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?
In February 2023, we wrote Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE. The article walks through Michael Kantrowitz’s HOPE model. HOPE, or Housing, New Orders (ISM), Corporate Profits, and Employment,...
2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?
The following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning: Here’s why economists don’t expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create inflation.
In...
Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently stated: “You don’t have a recession when you have the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years.” Let’s HOPE she...
A Dose of Reality About Employment Data and Lost Jobs
The language used to describe recent employment data is confusing. The Bureau of Labor Services (BLS) reported that the U.S. regained 9.3 million jobs...
The Decade Long Path Ahead To U.S. Economic Recovery (Part 1)
This article is the first of a four-part series on the vectors driving future economic growth. Forthcoming articles will tackle Depression, Demographics, and De-globalization.
Part...
Goldilocks and the 3 Bears of “Layoffs, Unemployment Claims, and Payrolls”
The following article is a part of my Gone Fishing Newsletter that I provide to fishing club members each week to identify macro inflection points and...
Employment Data Isn’t As Rosy As One Might Think
“Fed Officials Worry Economy Is Too Good. Workers Still Feel Left Behind” – New York Times 4/27/2018
This coming Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Is The Unemployment Rate “Right”?
The topic of the unemployment rate has come up a lot recently with regards to debates around full employment, wage growth, inflation, the stage...
Chart Spotlight: Hurricane Hit Areas Add To Initial Jobless Claims
The employment data has been released and Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas added 34.27K to the Initial Jobless Claims roll this past week.
Clearly the...
Employment Trends Weakening: 14 Must-See Charts For Investors
On November 4, 2016 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment data for October 2016. Economists rely heavily on employment trends &...
