Tag "unemployment"

Is The Unemployment Rate “Right”?

The topic of the unemployment rate has come up a lot recently with regards to debates around full employment, wage growth, inflation, the stage of the business cycle, and of course monetary policy. These are all critical inputs into the macro backdrop which is of great relevance to most of…

Chart Spotlight: Hurricane Hit Areas Add To Initial Jobless Claims

The employment data has been released and Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas added 34.27K to the Initial Jobless Claims roll this past week. Clearly the hurricane hit areas are suffering economically. That said, the overall level of claims remains well below 300K, a mark most analysts and economists view as…

Employment Trends Weakening: 14 Must-See Charts For Investors

On November 4, 2016 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment data for October 2016. Economists rely heavily on employment trends & data to help gauge the health of the economy. Investors believe the data provides valuable insight into the likelihood that the Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy…

The Employment Trend May Not Be Your Friend

Loan Delinquencies may be Signaling Recession On June 2, 2016 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stunned economic prognosticators and the financial media when it reported that 38,000 new jobs were created in May. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was 160,000 new jobs, with estimates ranging from 110,000…

Labor Market Momentum Fades As Hiring Cools Down

Key Takeaway: Reported jobs growth fell short of expectations in May, but monthly jobs report data are noisy. Slowing jobs growth and rising compensation may reflect labor supply issues rather than weaker labor demand. Broader measures of labor market health have cooled, and this could keep the Federal Reserve on…

U.S. Economic Update: Higher Wages A Boon For Workers

Key Takeaway: Job openings are back to record levels and this is giving workers confidence to voluntarily leave their job to look for better opportunity. Higher wages are also being seen and this appears to be relatively broadly-based (and not just in lower-paying industries). The hullabaloo over last Friday’s employment report…

Weak Q1 GDP Growth May Obscure Underlying Economic Strength

Key Takeaway: First quarter GDP growth could fail to meet forecasts, but Q1 weakness in GDP is becoming a recurring theme. Other measures of the economy point to improving conditions or persistent strength. While our recent experience has been over-optimistic forecasts, such has not always been the case. The initial…

Market Update: Focus Shifting To Economic Fundamentals

Focus Shifts to Economic Fundamentals The popular averages suffered the first downtick in six weeks last week with the damage limited to less than 1.00%. Stocks entered the holiday-shortened period sitting on top of a huge 12% gain since February 11 that pushed stocks into a technically overbought condition. We…

The Current State Of The Labor Market: Holding Steady

Key Takeaway: Monthly changes in employment data are mostly noise and do not deserve the attention they get. Longer-term trends show continued (or even increased) strength in the labor market. Both employers and employees are showing increased confidence in the economic recovery. Despite the attention it gets, there is really…

U.S. Economic Update: Are We Due For A Recession?

Key Takeaway: Federal Reserve studies suggest expansions are lasting longer and do not die just from old age. No one knows what the future will hold, but current evidence suggests recession risk remains minimal and even some of the weaker areas of the United States economy are seeing signs of…