Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas

Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts – a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum’s vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.


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Bond Market Update: Glimpses Of A Maturing Business Cycle?

Lots of talking heads are pointing to a lower yield curve as a warning sign. While the yield curve is relatively good indicator for the business cycle, a compressed (or even inverted) yield curve isn’t an immediate signal for bears. It need to find confirmation in other data. Today we’ll…

Should Investors Believe The Oil Hype?

The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East is fluid to say the least, and this fluidity has helped the black fluid undertake what is looking like a potential upside breakout as the news/noise levels remain high. But do you believe the hype? In this article we check out a chart…

Global Investing Insights: 5 Macro Themes I’m Watching

The markets continue to be noisy and indicators are mixed for equities. There’s reason to be on alert as this rally is getting extended. But the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) continues to hold near its highs.  And until it breaks its uptrend in a meaningful way, investors should simply stay tuned….

Here’s The Problem With Tight US High Yield Credit Spreads 

In my conversations with clients a common topic of interest is that of US high yield credit spreads. Indeed, it’s almost the opposite issue of the stock market – if you think S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) PE ratios are too high, you probably also think that US High Yield credit spreads…

NYSE Margin Debt Makes New Highs… But Growth Slows

One of the most watched, yet misunderstood, pieces of investing research is NYSE Margin Debt. Hitting new highs or all-time highs gets a lot of buzz… and bears point to it as a sign of an impending market top. But it’s been making new highs for months now. And it’s typically…

Investor Bullishness Rises As Euphoria-Meter Makes New Highs

Investors have shown a steady capitulation toward the bullish side of the ledger… whether it is bulls getting more bullish, neutral folks becoming bullish, or bears turning less bearish. These things happen in strong bull markets where stock price continually rise. Just look at the past 12-18 months on the…

Passive Investors: Beware of Sector Lopsidedness

A curious trend has emerged within one of the world’s major equity benchmarks: the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX). And one that beckons attention from the passive investing world. As passive or index investors should be well aware, their portfolios will change over time as the index changes. So it’s arguably a…

Around the World: 5 Macro Themes I’m Watching

With stocks pushing higher and the world on edge politically, there’s a lot of news / noise out there. So it’s always a good idea for investors to “ground” themselves in some macro themes and considerations that are present in the marketplace. Here’s a look at 5 themes I’m watching…

Is The Unemployment Rate “Right”?

The topic of the unemployment rate has come up a lot recently with regards to debates around full employment, wage growth, inflation, the stage of the business cycle, and of course monetary policy. These are all critical inputs into the macro backdrop which is of great relevance to most of…

Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Points To Higher Volatility

This article reviews the data from the latest weekly sentiment survey I conduct over on Twitter. The survey measures respondents’ equity and bond positioning/view – differentiating between whether the view is bullish or bearish for technical or fundamental reasoning. The latest results showed a further decline in net bullishness on the equity survey, driven…