Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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Implied Correlation Index Flashes Buy Signal

I’ve talked about the CBOE implied correlation index a few times before, but it’s very timely to revisit this indicator as the February correction has created quite the shakeup. Indeed we have seen a move in the index similar in magnitude to that seen in the heart of the financial…

Investor Sentiment Update and Outlook: 5 Charts

The much awaited and widely predicted correction (that no one really ended up predicting) has turned 2 weeks old now, and driven the S&P 500 down almost -12% top to bottom. So it’s timely to take a snapshot of where market sentiment is sitting across a number of key indicators…

Cyclical Stocks vs Defensive Stocks: The Next Shoe To Drop?

The February stock market correction has investors scrambling to find the reason behind the rapid fall in the major indexes, with various rationale being suggested. Truth is, sometimes you get technical-driven corrections without a “reason”.  But the other thing it does is increases scrutiny of existing known facts, such as…

Chinese Market Concerns? 3 Charts To Watch

The latest official PMI data out of China showed a slowing of momentum in the manufacturing sector (51.3 in January vs 51.6 in Dec and a peak of 52.4 in Sep 17), while non-manufacturing improved further (55.3 vs 55 in Dec). The improvement in non-manfacturing was largely a services story,…

Age Of Expensiveness: U.S Stocks, Bonds And Real Estate Overvalued

If it seems like just about every asset class is expensive, then you’re probably paying good attention to reality. Our indicators show a curious situation where 3 of the major asset classes; stocks, treasuries, and property, are all overvalued. There’s a couple of good reasons why this has come to…

Copper Stocks Aren’t Buying Dr. Copper’s Rally

Something interesting has been going on in one of our commodity intermarket models. While the price of copper has surged back from the lows of 2016, it seems that copper stock analysts don’t quite buy the rally. A significant divergence between the copper price and copper stocks relative performance has opened…

Unusual Credit Indicator Reports Big Drop In Demand

As I was going through and updating the various indicators that I monitor something in the credit space surprised me. The NACM CMI (think of this as the credit manager’s version of the ISM PMI), saw a major drop in a number of its key sub-indexes in the December report. The chart…

Market Seasonality Composite Charts For Stocks & Bonds

Earlier this week, I shared some stock market seasonality charts on my research blog and Twitter feed.  I’d like to highlight a couple of those right here on See It Market. The charts below look back over the past 27 years (1990-2017) and put together a composite yearly seasonality chart….

Key Takeaways: Emerging vs Developed Markets In 2018

With the December round of PMI data recently released, it’s a good time to take a look at some of the key macro and market metrics for developed vs emerging markets.  Aside from the timeliness aspect, there are some very interesting trends underway across both Emerging Markets (EM) and Developed Markets…

Top 10 Charts For Investors To Watch In 2018

I spent a lot of time this past week looking back across 2017.  I reviewed some of my best charts and market/macro calls of the year (along with some of my worst!). I also reviewed some my favorite charts. This article provides a look at some of the most important charts…