Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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Asset Allocation: Trends & Insights For Investors (April 2017)

This article looks at two lenses on individual investor asset allocations. Doing this allows us to have a gauge for where the average investor is, compare and contrast our own allocations, and get an insight into any signals that may be present. Both charts below appeared in a discussion about…

Margin Debt: Forget The Level, Watch The Change!

For some reason there seems to be a lot of people obsessed with and almost losing sleep about the level of US margin debt.  In fairness it made a new all time high in absolute nominal terms in February. Margin Debt All Time Highs… But Watch This Signal Instead Is…

Is Silver On The Cusp Of A New Bull Market?

Silver Starting To Shine Again Probably a lot of people look at the longer term chart of silver and the first thing they see is the massive bull market that peaked in 2011, rising over 400% off the 2008 bottom and almost 10x off the early 2000’s bottom.  It’s tempting…

Protectionist Headwinds? Global Trade Is Accelerating!

One thing I’ve been watching closely over the last couple of years is the pace of global trade growth. In the lead up to the market turmoil in late 2015 and the near-miss recession in 2016 there was effectively a “mini recession” in global trade growth. I talked about this…

S&P 500: The Implications Of CBOE Implied Correlations

As the recent selloff in the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) looks to be over before it really even got started, I thought it would be worth highlighting an interesting, if unusual, indicator that has potential use in market timing for the S&P 500. It is the “CBOE Implied Correlation Index” –…

Global Equities Earnings Acceler-O-Meter Checkup

With the swings in sentiment and price over the last couple of weeks it’s important to keep sight of some of the trends in the fundamentals. Particularly so as a lot of markets are looking shaky short-term, with divergences showing up and key levels looking close to being breached. Indeed,…

Bond Market Sentiment Slides On Outlook Concerns

This article looks at a unique market indicator that we’ve put together on the bond market. It provides a nice gauge of expectations for bonds in 2017 and beyond. It is designed to capture Bond Market sentiment and it does a fairly good job of flagging short-to-medium term turning points in…

Interest Rate Hikes Don’t Matter Until They Do…

Well it looks like the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is finally underway in earnest this time, with the March hike making the chart of interest rates look a little more familiar to the previous 2 hiking cycles, rather than the 1997 one-and-done hike. I previously highlighted a rule of thumb…

Bearish Market Breadth Divergence A Warning For Commodities?

Every now and then you come across a chart that goes against your bias or your previous assumptions, and often times these charts are particularly worth paying attention to. I previously presented a bullish case for commodities, and continue to hold a bullish bias for a couple of reasons, but…

S&P 500 Sector Level Analysis: Where’s The Bubble?

With all the talk of market bubbles and comparisons to the year 2000 and the dot-com mania, it’s worth taking a look at an interesting chart that showed clear signs of market mania toward the peak of the last two major market cycles. The chart, which appeared in the latest…