Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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Flash Global PMI Says “Carry On Bonds”

This week we’re looking at some fresh flash economic data. The Markit flash PMIs. Using GDP weights we can construct a “global flash PMI” and the reason for doing so will become obvious very quickly… And given the dynamics playing out in global markets right now this article is particularly timely. The…

U.S. Fund Flows: Is Another Round Of Sell Everything Coming?

The market continues to wobble, reflecting a high level of uncertainty. One indicator that offers us a glimpse comings and goings across assets is fund flows. U.S. Fund Flows – Stocks vs Bonds Looking at rolling quarterly fund flows for stocks and bonds, they both seem to be rolling over….

Trouble Brewing in the “SCANNZ Economies”

You’ve probably heard of the “BRIC Economies” – the kings of the new paradigm in emerging markets, and no doubt are sick of hearing about the “PIIGS Economies” – the Eurozone crisis culprits, but have you heard of the “SCANNZ Economies”? This grouping of: Sweden, Canada, Australia, Norway, and New…

5 Macro Themes: China, Inflation, The Dollar and More

Here’s a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of my Weekly Macro Themes report. There’s a lot going on across the financial markets and asset classes right now. Note that you can stay up to date on macro investing themes and trends (both technical and fundamental) through my…

Global Economic Power Struggle: Emerging vs Developed Markets

If it feels like there’s a power struggle underway between developed markets and emerging economies, it’s probably in part because the economic balance of power has already undergone a big change in the past 30 years. The chart in this article helps put some of the key geopolitical and macroeconomic…

High Yield Bond Investors Get Wake Up Call

There has been a lot going on this year, and while the stock market has grabbed most of the headlines, something has been going on in a corner of the market that should not be ignored. US high yield credit ETFs (also known as junk bonds), have seen what almost…

The Fed and the Markets: Leaving the Sweet Spot

One thing I am fond of is creating my own indicators, and today’s chart features one of my many favorites – the Fed Sweet Spot Indicator. As the Fed is pressing on with monetary policy tightening, and as heightened volatility permeates the markets, it’s a great opportunity to revisit this…

Margin Debt Update: A Peak And A Pullback

NYSE Margin debt is one of those old stock market indicators that has been around for a long time with history back to 1950, and many analysts making use of it through the ages as another data piece to understand the lay of the market land, investor leverage, and investor…

The Global Equities Bargain Bin (Developed Markets)

With the correction in global stock markets still running its course, it is worth surveying some valuation statistics across Developed Market equities. Indeed, the current stock market correction could easily go further, purely on investor sentiment. And this process could cheapen valuations across the board. But in the meantime, this…

Two S&P 500 Indicators Reach Extremes In 2018

For some time we have talked about 2 specific extremes in the S&P 500: Market Volatility & Investor Sentiment. But as a confluence of 3 key themes have transpired to reveal a more complex and dynamic risk environment so far in 2018 we are steadily seeing a reset of these stock market…