Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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Economic Chart Spotlight: Global Monetary Policy Converges

The big focus this week is on whether the Fed will either hike rates, announce Quantitative Tighening (QT) aka balance sheet normalization, do both, or do nothing…. but a bigger set of trends are playing out at a global level in the monetary policy space. The key chart in this article came…

Consumer Sentiment Follows Global Equities To New Highs

Over the weekend, I shared a chart brief on my website looking at two sentiment charts while discussing their role alongside the rally in global equities in 2017. The two charts pit the Ipsos Consumer Sentiment vs Global Equities (All-World), along with the same consumer sentiment charted against the Global…

Economic Noise Striking Cautionary Tone For Investors

This article discusses an unusual but interesting indicator I designed to gauge the background economic noise emanating from an economy and show how it impacts on sentiment and reflects key underlying trends. The chart comes from the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes where we also looked at the indicator for…

Is Market Uncertainty Showing Signs Of Complacency?

There are several ways to process, measure, and analyze market uncertainty. Today we’ll look at two charts that show investors uncertainty through different lenses:  One focused on economic uncertainty, the other focused on the VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX). The first chart looks at the global trend in uncertainty related to…

Credit Conditions & Demand Holding Up

In this week’s chart spotlight I want to share a couple charts with you regarding current credit conditions. In the August report from the National Association of Credit Managers (NACM), its Credit Managers Index (CMI) ticked higher. But there were other data points within this report that caught our eye…

Global Equity Profits Rebounding At The Margin

As global equity markets have moved higher and higher since what was arguably the start of a new bull market in 2016, a number of concerns have surfaced. These concerns include higher valuations, dependence on monetary policy, and a range of other worries like geopolitics. But a key development has…

Is Bond Market On The Cusp Of A QT Tantrum?

As attention moves to the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (aka global central bank meet up) it’s worth taking a look at a couple of developments in monetary policy and bonds markets. The main reason, as I will explain, is that there is the very real prospect of a repeat…

Alternative Measure Of Market Volatility Turns Up

It’s not easy to see, so you have to look closely at the first chart below… but market volatility appears to be turning higher here (baby steps). The chart highlights a long-followed (and favorite) measure of volatility in the marketplace.  I wrote about this measure on my blog on Friday:…

Why The US Dollar Correction Might Be Over

The current setup in the US Dollar index (CURRENCY:USD) is rare in that a clear and logical fundamental and technical case can be made for a rally (or a move to the upside). Could this simply be a correction within an ongoing bull market for the US Dollar? At the…