Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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Asian Equities Meet Their Make Or Break Moment

The MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index is approaching familiar territory. The 750 level was last reached at the height of the Chinese stock bubble in 2015, and prior to that at the height of the previous Chinese stock bubble in 2007! So the question is will the 750 level turn out…

Are Commodities Undergoing A Positioning Reset?

Commodities are at a crossroads (as an asset class, i.e. looking at the broad investable index, in this case the GSCI Light Energy Index).  Speculative futures positioning has collapsed from the most bullish (net-long) point in more than 10 years, and market breadth measures have rolled over. Could a commodities…

This Market Volatility Indicator Is At A 21 Year Low

Another look at market volatility that will leave you scratching your head In this article I look at an alternative view of volatility, and it’s a view that frankly has me scratching my head… The chart appeared in a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report in which we talked about…

The Last Time This Happened Global Equities Corrected…

This article looks at a unique indicator for global equities that captures quite a different kind of market breadth: market valuation breadth. The main takeaway is that it has moved into the danger zone. The chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report and points to an elevated…

Gold Bugs: Keep An Eye On The Shadow Fed Funds Rate

This week I thought I would focus on a particularly interesting chart for the outlook for the gold price.  I think it is particularly interesting, because both bulls and bears will be able to take something away from it to suit their case! But I will say, as a pre-warning,…

Is A Bubble Brewing In Income Assets?

With the search for yield, low interest rate environment, and central bank asset purchase programs it’s a question worth asking. Taking one step to answer this question I turned my attention toward the burgeoning ETF market. The chart below, which appeared in the Weekly Macro Themes report, shows the total amount…

Asset Allocation: Trends & Insights For Investors (April 2017)

This article looks at two lenses on individual investor asset allocations. Doing this allows us to have a gauge for where the average investor is, compare and contrast our own allocations, and get an insight into any signals that may be present. Both charts below appeared in a discussion about…

Margin Debt: Forget The Level, Watch The Change!

For some reason there seems to be a lot of people obsessed with and almost losing sleep about the level of US margin debt.  In fairness it made a new all time high in absolute nominal terms in February. Margin Debt All Time Highs… But Watch This Signal Instead Is…

Is Silver On The Cusp Of A New Bull Market?

Silver Starting To Shine Again Probably a lot of people look at the longer term chart of silver and the first thing they see is the massive bull market that peaked in 2011, rising over 400% off the 2008 bottom and almost 10x off the early 2000’s bottom.  It’s tempting…

Protectionist Headwinds? Global Trade Is Accelerating!

One thing I’ve been watching closely over the last couple of years is the pace of global trade growth. In the lead up to the market turmoil in late 2015 and the near-miss recession in 2016 there was effectively a “mini recession” in global trade growth. I talked about this…