Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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Major Bear Market Indicator Back To neutral For Now…

Investors: Keep An Eye On The Credit Markets In a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes we looked at one indicator that has in the past served as a bear market warning for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX):  The Fed SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey). Prior to the dot-com bust, and the…

Global Markets Update: 5 Charts To Watch Now (February 15)

It’s time for another round of macro technical charts as investors attempt to weigh the risk to reward ratio in several markets (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at 5 charts with key technical price developments.  Even if…

Commodities Speculative Positioning At 10 Year High

The below chart shows average speculative futures positioning (standardized against open interest*) across 15 different commodities – giving effectively an asset class view for commodities. The main takeaway is that speculators are the most net-long commodities they’ve been in more than 10 years. Commodity speculative positioning (futures) at a 10…

5 Global Charts For Active Investors – February 7

It’s time for another round of macro technical charts as investors move further into the month of February (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at 5 charts with key technical price developments.  Even if you’re not technical analysis…

5 Charts To Watch This Week: Breakouts & Divergences!

It’s time for another set of macro technical charts to watch as we prepare for the month of February (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will include 5 charts and look at key technical price developments.  Even if you’re…

5 Charts For Traders: Gold, US Dollar, CBOE SKEW and More

It’s time for another set of 5 macro technical charts to watch as we move toward the end of January (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at technical price developments.  And even if you’re not technical analysis minded I believe…

5 Charts For Global Investors: Key Market Trends

It’s time for another set of 5 macro technical charts to watch as we move further into the month of January (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at technical price developments.  And even if you’re not technical analysis minded…

5 Charts For Investors: Around The Global Financial Markets

I’m back with another set of 5 macro technical charts to watch as we move further into the near year (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at technical price developments.  And even if you’re not technical analysis minded…

Global Earnings Cycle Weak… But There’s A Silver Lining

This article takes a unique perspective on the global earnings cycle, looking at the proportion of countries seeing expansion or contraction in earnings and economic activity. The charts come from the 2016 End of Year Special Edition (one-off free download). The key finding is that the post-global financial crisis environment…

US Dollar Update: These Two Charts Point To Further Upside

When the US Dollar (CURRENCY:USD) rallied 25%across 2014/2015 it triggered a series of ripple effects that reverberated across global markets and economies, weighing heavily on commodities and forcing tightening of financial conditions in the US and emerging markets. As an investor having good handle on the outlook for the US…