Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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Bond Market Sentiment Slides On Outlook Concerns

This article looks at a unique market indicator that we’ve put together on the bond market. It provides a nice gauge of expectations for bonds in 2017 and beyond. It is designed to capture Bond Market sentiment and it does a fairly good job of flagging short-to-medium term turning points in…

Interest Rate Hikes Don’t Matter Until They Do…

Well it looks like the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is finally underway in earnest this time, with the March hike making the chart of interest rates look a little more familiar to the previous 2 hiking cycles, rather than the 1997 one-and-done hike. I previously highlighted a rule of thumb…

Bearish Market Breadth Divergence A Warning For Commodities?

Every now and then you come across a chart that goes against your bias or your previous assumptions, and often times these charts are particularly worth paying attention to. I previously presented a bullish case for commodities, and continue to hold a bullish bias for a couple of reasons, but…

S&P 500 Sector Level Analysis: Where’s The Bubble?

With all the talk of market bubbles and comparisons to the year 2000 and the dot-com mania, it’s worth taking a look at an interesting chart that showed clear signs of market mania toward the peak of the last two major market cycles. The chart, which appeared in the latest…

A Sweet Spot For Interest Rate Hikes And The S&P 500

This chart comes from the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes in which I talked about why another Federal Reserve rate hike is inevitable based on a couple of key charts which show an increasingly tight US labor market and a general rise in inflationary pressures. For most investors…

The Gold Market Is Getting Complacent: Watch This Chart!

A little too quiet for Gold… Gold came to my attention for a couple of reasons this week. First was the sentiment signals in the latest sentix survey – I tweeted the chart here.  Second I decided to feature it in the latest edition of the Tuesday Macro Technicals report. I…

Inside The Markets: 5 Charts For Active Investors (February 22)

It’s time for another round of macro technical charts as investors attempt to weigh the risk to reward ratio across several markets (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at 5 charts with important technical price developments.  Even if you’re not…

Major Bear Market Indicator Back To Neutral For Now…

Investors: Keep An Eye On The Credit Markets In a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes we looked at one indicator that has in the past served as a bear market warning for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX):  The Fed SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey). Prior to the dot-com bust, and the…

Global Markets Update: 5 Charts To Watch Now (February 15)

It’s time for another round of macro technical charts as investors attempt to weigh the risk to reward ratio in several markets (including stock market indices, sectors, individual commodities, currencies, bonds, and other benchmarks and market indicators). This chart review will look at 5 charts with key technical price developments.  Even if…