Posts From Callum Thomas

Callum Thomas
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven investment insights and unique charts. Callum's vision in creating Topdown Charts is to serve as a vital resource for portfolio managers on idea generation and in informing their macro view. Callum is based in Queenstown, New Zealand.
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The Difference Between Emerging Markets and Developed Markets

Anyone who has been paying attention to emerging markets will have noticed the very interesting price action going on there. But since it’s getting more and more attention, it’s worth revisiting the very definition of EM [Emerging Markets] vs DM [Developed Markets]. The chart in this article comes from a…

Global Bond Markets Are Breaking Down

After the big reflation reset in positioning, global bond markets are showing more signs of breaking down. We previously talked in detail about the idea of the reflation reset in the context of a decent global growth and inflation outlook which would likely set the scene for growth assets to outperform defensive/income assets. Now…

FAANG Stocks Not Even Close To Dot Com Mania

There’s been a lot of talk about the so-called FAANG stocks and parallels being drawn against the 2000’s dot com bubble. As a reminder, the FAANG stocks include: Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) With S&P 500 valuations steadily pushing higher vs history and relative…

S&P 500 Sector Analysis: Rising Inequality

When you say the words ‘rising inequality’ it raises all sorts of connotations and thoughts, but in this investing ChartBrief we look at a peculiar angle on inequality – inequality in sectors in the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX,). There has been an interesting uptrend in the gap between the largest and…

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads Low – As It should Be?

Most people are probably aware that US High Yield credit spreads are trading at the bottom end of the range – almost 1 standard deviation below the long term average.  This is a fact.  But what is not a fact is whether credit spreads are *too* low… It’s worth examining…

Institutional Investor Confidence Dogged By Asia

The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index [SSICI] readings show a relative ambivalence among global institutional investors. As a reminder, the index “provides an objective, quantitative measure of global risk tolerance of the world’s sophisticated investors”. As such, it brings in additional info vs the more mainstream retail and advisory investor surveys….

Small Caps PE10 Valuation Ratio Getting Lofty

A number of analysts and commentators have been discussing the increasingly high levels of the “Shiller PE”, also known as CAPE or PE10, for the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX). Indeed the CAPE has historically been a good predictor of longer term forward equity market returns. But in this article we’ll…

Crude Oil Trading Outlook Across Multiple Time Frames

In a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report I talked about the likelihood of further short-term downside in the oil price based on a few factors. However this is a tactically bearish view and our view is that oil will go higher over the medium term as the market slowly…

Fed Funds Sweet-Spot Indicator Still A Tailwind For Stocks

Whether it’s “3 steps and a stumble” or just the fact that the Federal Reserve is thinking and talking about going from QE to QT, there is a growing sense that ‘policy normalization’ is increasing downside risk for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX). But as I talked about previously, the Fed Funds…

Global Property Prices and How They Correlate To Bank Stocks

In this article I’m going to look at how global property price trends influence financial sector stocks, and perhaps more interestingly – what the outlook is. The chart comes from a broader discussion on global property price trends in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. The chart below…