Tag "bond yields"

Macro Outlook: Are Corporate Earnings Peaking?

The following article is a part of my Gone Fishing Newsletter that I provide to fishing club members each week to identify macro inflection points and actionable micro trade set-ups.   Reflections and Inflections The daily island reversals on the SPY QQQ and IWM on Tuesday April 17 (think SPX $2717) led…

Markets In Flux: What Happens At 3.0%?

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield appears to be rising into the 3.0% level. Now a number of market chatters have pointed to 3% as a critical threshold, from a resistance level and for a potential negative feedback loop onto the equity markets. Looking at the chart below, it is easy…

Flash Global PMI Says “Carry On Bonds”

This week we’re looking at some fresh flash economic data. The Markit flash PMIs. Using GDP weights we can construct a “global flash PMI” and the reason for doing so will become obvious very quickly… And given the dynamics playing out in global markets right now this article is particularly timely. The…

US Treasury Yield Curve Is The Talk Of The Town

The following chart and data highlight non-commercial commodity futures trading positions as of April 17, 2017. This data was released with the April 20 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). Note that these charts also appeared on my blog. The chart below looks at non-commercial futures trading positions for the 10 Year Treasury Note…

High Yield Bond Investors Get Wake Up Call

There has been a lot going on this year, and while the stock market has grabbed most of the headlines, something has been going on in a corner of the market that should not be ignored. US high yield credit ETFs (also known as junk bonds), have seen what almost…

Sovereign Debt Stew: U.S. Treasuries Are Not Without Risk

The Earth is flat Cigarettes are healthy Leeches are the cure for everything The universe revolves around the Earth California is an island Red wine is healthy, unhealthy, healthy… Facts are essential as they offer humans a sense of stability in a chaotic world. For instance, we find comfort in…

Market Divergence: U.S. 10-Year Yield Premium Widens vs Dollar

US yield gap continues to widen versus countries like Japan, Germany, and the rest of the G-7. Over the last several years both the yield premium over G-7 and the US dollar have moved together. Recently, the pair has diverged with the dollar declining and the pair widening. Assuming we…

Investors Better Buckle Up, There’s Turbulence Ahead

U.S. Treasury securities across the maturity spectrum are reaching yield resistance levels that have proven for decades to be extremely valuable to investors engaged in technical analysis. I believe it is possible the reaction of interest rates to these resistance levels will hold important clues about future economic activity and…

TED Spreads May Be Signaling Risk-Off For Equities

The following article is a part of my Gone Fishing Newsletter that I provide to fishing club members each week to identify macro inflection points and actionable micro trade set-ups. Early February of this year, stocks got hit while the VIX had its 2nd biggest rally ever, all while bonds hardly budged….