Tag "bond yields"

Economic Spotlight: Rising Oil Prices & Treasury Yields Concerning

CONSUMER WATCH: Below I present a chart showing a potentially deadly duo for the economy and consumers… At least if the current trend doesn’t slow. The chart below looks at the average rise in Crude Oil prices and 10 Year Treasury Yields plotted against US recessions. A combined average rise…

S&P 500 Trading Update: Pause And One More Rally?

S&P 500 Trading Outlook:  BULLISH Yesterday’s pullback failed to do much technical damage, closing at, but not below prior days lows. As well, Demark counts are incomplete in the bullish month of December. While another 2-3 days of weakness very well could happen, no trends have been broken, and anticipate…

Bond Market Update: Glimpses Of A Maturing Business Cycle?

Lots of talking heads are pointing to a lower yield curve as a warning sign. While the yield curve is relatively good indicator for the business cycle, a compressed (or even inverted) yield curve isn’t an immediate signal for bears. It need to find confirmation in other data. Today we’ll…

Stock Market Update: One More Push Higher?

Stock market futures traded up near yesterday’s highs this morning, a sign that bulls are defending the bears attempts at lower prices. That said, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) remains largely unchanged for the last couple weeks… a tough tape to trade. Bond Yields & Currencies Treasury bond yields have broken…

Is The Bond Market Wrong About The Global Economy?

The September round of flash manufacturing PMIs saw our composite “global flash PMI” rising +0.4pts to 54.7 – the same level it got to in January before ranging as low as 53.9. Looking at the breakdown, all 3 major components were up in September: Eurozone +0.8 to 58.2 USA +0.2…

Chart Spotlight: U.S. Treasury Yields Under Pressure

As many of you know, I like to share charts that on trend lines. Whether price is testing, retesting, breaking out, or breaking down through a trend line, there’s a lot to be gleaned from them. Further, the 30 Year U.S. Treasury Yield (INDEXCBOE:TYX) is attempting to break through its…

Treasury Yields Poised To Grind Upward

Last September, we showed the support area where we expected long-term yields to begin a possible reversal. Soon afterward, the index rallied from the zone and broke through initial resistance, but it has spent most of 2017 until now in a corrective retracement. Now it appears that rates may be…

Global Bond Markets Are Breaking Down

After the big reflation reset in positioning, global bond markets are showing more signs of breaking down. We previously talked in detail about the idea of the reflation reset in the context of a decent global growth and inflation outlook which would likely set the scene for growth assets to outperform defensive/income assets. Now…