Tag "bond yields"

Treasury Yields Poised To Grind Upward

Last September, we showed the support area where we expected long-term yields to begin a possible reversal. Soon afterward, the index rallied from the zone and broke through initial resistance, but it has spent most of 2017 until now in a corrective retracement. Now it appears that rates may be…

Global Bond Markets Are Breaking Down

After the big reflation reset in positioning, global bond markets are showing more signs of breaking down. We previously talked in detail about the idea of the reflation reset in the context of a decent global growth and inflation outlook which would likely set the scene for growth assets to outperform defensive/income assets. Now…

Global Bond Yields Rally: Is The Reflation Trade Back On?

This post was written with Craig Basinger of Richardson GMP. Over the past week we have seen global bond yields rally. This move higher has included an almost doubling of the German 10-year bond, from 0.25% to 0.46%, UK’s from 1% to 1.25%, Canada’s from 1.47% to 1.77% and to…

U.S. Equities Short-Term Outlook: Still Bullish

S&P 500 Futures: (2-3 Days)  Bullish It’s thought that the late day rally in stocks on Thursday should follow the breakout higher in Treasury yields (INDEXCBOE:TNX) and begin to trend up to new highs in the days ahead. While a neutral trend for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is an accurate depiction…

Market Update: Stocks Still Vulnerable To Near-Term Selling

Stocks are trading higher thus far this week but many indices are still below near-term trading resistance. The S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) will remain bearish until it can hurdle the 2350 area on the cash index. See analysis and short-term outlook for S&P 500 futures below. S&P 500 Futures: (2-3 Days)  Bearish…

U.S. Equities Short-Term Technical Outlook – March 20

Most of the world stock market indexes are fractionally today, including the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX). German and Italian bond yields are slightly higher, while the US Dollar (CURRENCY:USD) is largely unchanged vs most of the Majors. Equities have failed to show the kind of upside continuation that was thought to…

Treasury Bond Yields Near Lowest Levels Since November

The stock market’s 2017 advance slowed last week with the blue-chip averages gaining less than 1.00% while the rally in small- and mid-cap averages stalled. Nevertheless, the performance year-to-date continues to surprise on the upside. And the latest bump may be aided by lower treasury bond yields (INDEXCBOE:TNX). The equity…

German Bunds, US Treasuries: Yields Approaching Support

The bonds complex may be setting up for a near-term reversal of sorts. The charts below show the potential for a near-term low in yields and possible ensuing move higher. Let’s look at German Bunds and US Treasuries. GERMAN BUND YIELDS I suspect that the combination of both TD buy…

Why I Warmed Up To US Treasuries

During the summer, I put out a lot of very bearish commentary about the Treasury market. There were numerous technical reasons for the call. In addition, and I know it seems so long ago, was this almost universal opinion that yields on the long end of the curve were going to…