Tag: u.s. economic data

Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?

In February 2023, we wrote Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE. The article walks through Michael Kantrowitz’s HOPE model. HOPE, or Housing, New Orders (ISM), Corporate Profits, and Employment,...

2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?

The following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning: Here’s why economists don’t expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create inflation. In...

A Market Crisis Is Coming: Who Will Be Swimming Naked?

We recently wrote The Lag Effect Unveiled to appreciate why it takes time for higher interest rates to inflict economic damage. We follow that up with...

Wage Inflation: The Stats and Underlying Implications

While the UAW strike continues, and the debate on how much it matters in the scheme of things rages on, other wage trends are...

Risk Free Government Debt: Fact Or Fiction?

Most investors believe that U.S. government debt is risk free. Why shouldn’t they, every economic and financial textbook, media outlet, and bond guru say...

Inflation and Deficits and QT, Oh My (Part II)

Part one of this article discusses the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could...

U.S. Economic Data Insights: The GDP, PCE, ADP Waltz

Conference Board Economic Forecast:  Looking into 2024, we expect the volatility that dominated the US economy over the pandemic period to diminish. In the second...

Stimulus and Consumption Are Fueling Economic Resilience

The economy has marched forward, ignoring higher interest rates and consistent calls for a recession. Credit goes to “We The People,” the citizens of...

4 Market Trends To Follow This Summer

This week we share 4 charts depicting market trends into summertime... because we could not stop at 3. Zoom sees record in-app monthly revenue... Apparel retail foot...

May 2023 U.S. Economic Data Trends and Analysis

The following research was contributed to by Christine Short, VP of Research at Wall Street Horizon. Global economic surprises suggest that GDP growth could be...

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