Tag "u.s. economic data"

Key Takeaways: Emerging vs Developed Markets In 2018

With the December round of PMI data recently released, it’s a good time to take a look at some of the key macro and market metrics for developed vs emerging markets.  Aside from the timeliness aspect, there are some very interesting trends underway across both Emerging Markets (EM) and Developed Markets…

U.S. Economy: Squeezing The Consumer From Both Sides

The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate on December 13, 2017, marking the fifth increase over the last two years. Even with interest rates remaining at historically low levels, the Fed’s actions are resulting in greater interest expense for short-term and floating rate borrowers. The effect of this was…

2017 Market Review & Update: The Year Of Investor Cheer

There was a lot of good news for the stock market in 2017… and even some good news sprinkled in for the bond market. Our 2017 market review is brief, yet hits some major highlights. 2017 Market Review Global central banks were either adding stimulus (Bank of Japan, European Central…

Investing & Economic Outlook Into 2018: Key Themes To Watch

Beyond the calm that persisted in the financial markets for the bulk of the year, 2017 was a season of real life hurricanes. Whether the financial markets can avoid stormy weather in 2018 remains to be seen… with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) at all-time highs, it safe to say that investors…

Will Federal Reserve Tightening Slow Capital Markets In 2018?

Last month marked a historic first, although it was a rather quiet entrance. Reversing course from the money printing programs of QE1, QE2 and QE3, the Federal Reserve pulled $10 billion from the capital markets. I call it ‘money destruction,’ since it is the exactly opposite of ‘money printing.’ The…

U.S. Economic Surprise Index Higher as Hard Data Concerns Grow

The Economic Surprise Index soars higher on increased survey readings. We have seen an overall surprise beat from consumer confidence, empire manufacturing surveys, and the Dallas Fed survey. This further emphasizes the hard data versus soft data debate. Hard data being those data points which are not survey based and…

U.S. Energy Trade Deficit Nears Zero As Options Expand

This US energy update was power by data from my firm Avory Research. The chart highlights the shrinking energy trade deficit, the drop in solar prices, and the increase of total US crude production. The US energy trade deficit is nearing zero as U.S. production of crude oil, coupled with…

Is The Unemployment Rate “Right”?

The topic of the unemployment rate has come up a lot recently with regards to debates around full employment, wage growth, inflation, the stage of the business cycle, and of course monetary policy. These are all critical inputs into the macro backdrop which is of great relevance to most of…

Chart Spotlight: Hurricane Hit Areas Add To Initial Jobless Claims

The employment data has been released and Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas added 34.27K to the Initial Jobless Claims roll this past week. Clearly the hurricane hit areas are suffering economically. That said, the overall level of claims remains well below 300K, a mark most analysts and economists view as…

Are U.S. Consumers Getting Exhausted… By Debt?

Consumption Exhaustion When people use the word catalyst to describe an event that may prick the stock market bubble, they usually discuss something singular, unexpected and potentially shocking. The term “black swan” is frequently invoked to describe such an event. In reality, while such an incident may turn the market…