Tag: u.s. economic data

Wicksell’s Elegant Model… And What It’s Saying About Today’s Economy

“It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life.” – Mickey Mantle Introduction The word discipline has two closely...

Everyone Hears the Fed but Few Listen

“See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” Currently, investors appear to be covering their eyes, ears, and mouths and ignoring the Federal Reserve’s...

Are Booming Corporate Profits Masking A Valuation Bubble?

“Better to paralyzed from the neck down than the neck up.” – Charles Krauthammer It is easy to be upbeat about the stock market. Currently, as...

U.S. Equities Macro Update: Economy Supporting Stock Prices

The stock market broke out of a two-week losing streak last week with the S&P 500 Index (INDEXCBOE:.INX) gaining 1.5%. Stocks have been locked in...

Consumer Cycle Indicator Flashing Early Warning Signs

If consumption is approximately 70% of US GDP, then inputs to the consumer are critical to the stability and growth of the economy. So let's...

Employment Data Isn’t As Rosy As One Might Think

“Fed Officials Worry Economy Is Too Good. Workers Still Feel Left Behind” – New York Times 4/27/2018 This coming Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics...

Market Divergence: U.S. 10-Year Yield Premium Widens vs Dollar

US yield gap continues to widen versus countries like Japan, Germany, and the rest of the G-7. Over the last several years both the yield...

Leading Indicators: Is The Global Economy Slowing Down?

The latest round of OECD Composite Leading Indicators was just released, and given how useful these indicators can be in shedding light on the state of...

Debt Hangover: Here’s Why Deficits Do Matter

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased the Fed Funds rate by 125 basis points or 1.25% since 2015, which had little effect on bonds...

U.S. GDP Growth Is Not As Rosy As It Seems

Last Friday, Gross Domestic Product (GDP or the domestic economic growth rate) for the fourth quarter of 2017 was released. Despite being 0.3% short...

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