Tag "credit markets"

Corporate Credit Markets: Party Like It’s 2017!

It has been quite a while since I have written about the state of the corporate bond market. Longtime readers know that I follow the corporate credit markets very closely as the main tell of what drives equity markets. And considering the noise surrounding the markets, it probably a good…

Major Bear Market Indicator Back To Neutral For Now…

Investors: Keep An Eye On The Credit Markets In a recent edition of the Weekly Macro Themes we looked at one indicator that has in the past served as a bear market warning for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX):  The Fed SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey). Prior to the dot-com bust, and the…

Credit Markets Update: European Financials Firm After BREXIT

I thought I’d provide a quick update on the credit markets in the aftermath of BREXIT. In particular European financials. The attached chart below shows the price of an index of credit default swaps (CDS) on subordinated debt of European financials, and the price of the iShares MSCI Europe Financials…

Market Update With DeMark Indicators: Where To Next?

It’s been a while since I posted a market update using DeMark analysis. And since the stock market has been red-hot since the February lows, there’s probably no better time than now. Feel free to read my primer on the basics of DeMark indicators.  Below I run through several markets…

Catching Up On The Credit Markets – Week Of April 8

I’ve been busy with travel and non-market stuff for the last several weeks but wanted to provide a quick update on how the credit markets are faring into April. Here is a summary of my thoughts looking across the credit markets… with a final note on what it may mean for…

Corporate Credit Markets Set For Extended… Period Of Balance?

Over the last couple of weeks I’ve been tweeting about the relentless improvement in the corporate credit markets and credit derivatives. It all started on February 16, when credit bears toying around with the Investment Grade CDX above 120bps were caught offside by a sudden $22B binge of new corporate…

What Deleveraging? Student Loans And Government Debt Surge

Both student loans and automobile loans made a fresh new high in 4Q15.  That shouldn’t be viewed as “new” news.  Both these loans have been trending higher in the current cycle. When Great Recession ended, student loans were $710.9 billion. At the end of the fourth quarter last year, they stood at…

Margin Debt Peak Could Hit Stocks And Commercial Loans

NYSE margin debt dropped 2.5 percent month-over-month in December, to $461.2 billion. The S&P 500 declined 1.8 percent in the month. Regardless if margin debt followed stocks lower or it was the other way round, what matters is that momentum is coming out of the former. And the stock market…

Bond Market Concerns Growing: A Peak Under The Surface

Even if your focus is squarely on equities, understanding what’s taking place in other markets is an important factor when it comes to managing a portfolio. It’s often said that the bond market leads stocks and the first moves to a major change in trend, whether it’s the trend in…