Stocks & Bonds

Stock Market Outlook: Weekly Reversal Leaves Technical Damage

What a difference a week makes. The market ended the previous week on a strong note. And the S&P 500 seemed poised to follow the Nasdaq Composite and push to new all-time highs. But these and any other bullish hopes for the stock market were swiftly extinguished as the market put in an ugly reversal last week that resulted in a good deal of technical damage. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq

20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Caught In Limbo

Last week, non-commercials went net long 10-Year Treasury Note futures for the first time since September 2014. For reference, they were net short north of 183,000 contracts as early as early May and 261,000-plus at the end of last December (see chart 1 below). So this is quite an about face in their sentiment. In fact, back in September last year, these traders went net long only briefly – twice

Unusual Options Activity: CHK, COP, HLT, TWTR, And More

It’s time to review several stocks that had unusual options activity over the last week. Although traders can never be sure why these trades take place (and who’s making them), I believe it’s important to be aware of notable options activity as an indicator for directional bias. Here’s a weekly recap of 10 stocks that had unusual options activity and what, if any, significance these trades may have. Unusual Options Activity: 10 Stocks With Notable

The COT Report: Commodities Slump, Treasuries Catch A Bid

The following is a recap of The COT Report (Commitment Of Traders) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of July 21, 2015. Note that the change is week-over-week. 10-Year Treasury Note: Is global growth slowing? The ongoing slump in commodities seems to suggest that. In this scenario, it would make sense for investors to be gobbling up Treasuries on the long

The Rotation Report: Are Clouds Moving In Over Market?

The action in the mega cap leaders has just been absurd of late. For example, take Amazon (AMZN). It was already significantly overbought on its weekly time-frame leading into earnings and it just happened to gap up 100 dollars and open 15 percent above the weekly upper bollinger band (the most since 1999). You don’t see this action very often. Sure seems like late stage bull market stuff. But how

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: A Look Ahead For Stocks

Like clockwork, the S&P 500 ran out of gas at the top of the price range that goes all the way back to February. As a technician, I have been trained to make a call on the market, generally up or down. Maybe the toughest call of all is sideways. Why? It just doesn’t happen that often for an extended period of time, but as I have discussed in many

Top Trading Links: Killer Research And Making Progress

What is progress? Progress in education is when you look back and you see things differently. As George Bernard Shaw said “Progress is impossible without change and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything”. To be a better market operator, you’ve got to be willing to constantly re-shape (A) how you think and (B) your thoughts. Whether it’s about how the market is acting, how the world works

Stocks Hit Crossroads In 2015: Key Resistance Levels To Watch

Yesterday, I noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been bumping up against a key technical resistance level all year – its 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (around 18,200). But this may be a more important price point for stocks than many think. Check out the chart below. It dates back to 1970 and highlights a key trend line for the Dow Jones, connecting from the 1987 highs through

Soaring U.S. Corporate Bond Issuance – The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

U.S. corporate bond issuance is on track for yet another record year this year. In the first half, corporate bond issuance totaled $877.7 billion, comprised of $697.8 billion in investment-grade and $179.9 billion in high-yield. Annualized, both categories, as well as the total, are on track for a record 2015 (Chart 1). If the first-half pace sustains in the second half, we are looking at corporate bond issuance of $1.76

What’s Next For The VIX? Checking In On The Volatility Index

Of late, volatility has been volatile. In the past month, the Volatility Index (VIX) has done a complete round trip – surging 68 percent in 11 sessions and then giving it all back in the next eight. As the fear premium related to Greece and Chinese stocks came out, there was less need to buy protection – at least this is the impression one gets looking at how market participants