Stocks & Bonds

Gasoline ETF (UGA) Surges Higher, Outperforming Stocks Like Apple!

After months of falling Gasoline prices, February saw a bounce higher in the Gasoline ETF (UGA). And it has been a big one. I wrote about gasoline’s biggest 3 day rally in early February and how the power of the pattern continued to suggest higher prices… and a rally for the Gasoline ETF. The pattern showed Gasoline was bouncing off a major long-term channel support. Well, it’s now the end of

5 Reasons Value Investors Should Avoid ‘Sum Of The Parts’

Value investors are always on the search for clues. Seeking out undervalued securities involves relentless digging, scratching, and a myriad of valuation techniques to derive conclusions. In frothy markets, value managers are also notorious for spotting red flags and smoke signals urging caution. I’d like to share one of those signals with you. As a value manager, there is no phrase that makes me shudder more than “sum of the

10 Reasons Bull Markets SteamRoll Bears

Sure all bull markets have pullbacks. And it’s not uncommon for bull markets to have a few corrections. But each one breeds more bears with reasons and explanations for why the market shouldn’t go higher. And as bears build up short positions in bull markets, they often get steam rolled… adding steam to the bull market. Here are 10 reasons why bull markets often steam roll the bears: 1.  At all-time-highs

Is It Time To Buy Gold Again?

Gold has been a major topic of discussion thus far in 2015. We saw Gold prices make a violent move up at the beginning of the year only to fall just as quickly in February. It feels like Gold has been in a bear market for years and years, but amazingly, it’s been fairly stable for the last year and a half. To get a better idea of what is

Trading In The Information Age: Adjusting To “Quick Fix” Markets

Our society seemingly has given way to shorter time frames. We simply revel in looking at the next minute rather than “tomorrow”. In this fast-paced Information Age, we all want a little bit of instant gratification… and we want it sooner than now. I could digress into other areas of life as we know it, but that’s a broader societal question. What I want to write about is how our behavioral need for a

NASDAQ Trend Line Converging With 2000 High: Breakout Coming?

As the major stock market indices march higher, all eyes are on the NASDAQ Composite. This popular tech index is getting a ton of press lately because it’s approaching its former all-time “bubble” highs from 2000. Yep, it took 15 years to get back to these levels. I’m also seeing a lot of “buzz” about how it’s different this time. Well folks, since TIME really doesn’t exist I’m not sure what

Mutual Fund Investing: Not All Behavior Gaps Are Created Equal

I spend a lot of my time writing about the common mistakes made by investors because I operate under the assumption that cutting down on unforced errors could drastically improve portfolio performance for a majority of investors. The behavior gap between reported fund returns and actual investor returns that results from poorly timed purchases and sales is probably the most pervasive problem facing investors today. Well-known funds such as the Fairholme Fund

Euro Stoxx 50 Index Shows Topping Pattern

Many of our readers know that our big-picture charts for equity and commodity markets fit together to imply a somewhat pessimistic scenario for the global economy in coming years. We’re not gloomy by nature, but we go where the charts tell us. At present, global equity markets show topping patterns. Meanwhile, declining prices for major commodities match expectations of an economic slowdown. Although we see potential reversal signals in most

Global Equities Rise As Investor Fears Take A Back Seat

As we look around the globe, we are seeing stronger global equities markets that have benefitted from what investors perceive to be a safer playing field. And this has shown up in lower bonds and gold prices, and a falling Volatility Index (VIX). The net result: The S&P 500 is up nearly 6 percent for February, on pace for it’s best February showing since 1998. Note that this post went out to our email

More Upside For The Russell 2000? Try A Bullish Butterfly

Small caps have finally broken out from their resistance level with the Russell 2000 (RUT) so far holding above the important 1220 level. Bullish momentum may carry the index another 2-3% higher, but that should be about it. The RUT has rallied from 1153 to 1232 for a gain of 6.85% in the last 16 trading days. For traders that think this rally might have another small leg higher, a