Stocks & Bonds

What Major Stock Market Tops Look Like

Stock Market: Markets Don’t Peak Quietly   Over the past few weeks in my newsletter, “On The Mark,” I discussed some things that generally occur at major stock market tops. Here is a brief synopsis. Major stock market tops are generally accompanied by lengthy divergences with respect to market internals and longer-term…

Did Volatility Traders Overreact Again Last Week?

Volatility expectations took record jumps during Wednesday’s “big” selloff. Last Wednesday saw the stock market break out of its historically tight trading range – and it did so in dramatic fashion. After, for example, trading in a 16-day low-high range of barely 1%, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) nearly doubled that…

Treasury Bonds: Will This Triple Bottom Prove Bullish?

Treasury bonds have underperformed other major asset classes since topping last summer.  But the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) may be finding some footing. That is, IF the chart pattern show below is confirmed. I shared the chart below last Wednesday. And, as you can see, bonds (via TLT) are…

S&P 500 Market Outlook (May 19): Breadth Deteriorating

In this investing research note, we will analyze key stock market indicators, consider the current trend of the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX), and discuss emerging themes that we are watching in our investing research. Here’s a summary of the highlights: Breadth Deteriorating as S&P 500 Moves Toward Support – The S&P 500 has…

Market Update: Stocks Rally But Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Market Trading Update – Friday, May 19 We’re seeing another day of bouncing in the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and other broad equity indices. Elsewhere, European stocks are also rallying while Asia is largely mixed. The U.S. Dollar Index (CURRENCY:USD) is getting hit hard yet again vs both the Pound Sterling and…

Are Emerging Markets Equities (EEM) Running Into A Wall?

Recent leader, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (INDEXNYSEGIS:EMX), is hitting a major confluence of resistance at the moment. One theme we’ve been all over in 2017 is the good relative performance of international markets. That includes emerging markets, individually and collectively, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EM)….

Tracking Sigma Scores Of Price Changes For Regime Shifts

Measuring price moves is the name of the game. However, measuring price moves given recent context can add additional benefits to your trading performance. At times, the market can get very quiet which can make a 1% price drop feel like a 10% price drop (think summer trading). At other…

Political Rumblings Awaken Sleep-Walking Stock Market

Stocks are reacting to increased uncertainty in the U.S. with political developments dominating the headlines. While this may be the catalyst for stock market weakness, it likely does not represent an underlying cause for sustained selling. Political headlines tend to be more noise than news and we are hesitant to…

S&P 500 Chart Update: Is A Deeper Pullback Underway?

Yesterday’s whoosh doused some water on the near-term prospects for a bullish breakout on the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX). I was leaning toward an upside resolution to the current trading range, but that’s not in the cards. It’s possible that the larger stock market pullback I had been looking for…