Posts From Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. While at Georgia Tech, he gained five years of valuable experience at IBM. Chris also worked for the Georgia Tech Physics department as a teaching assistant leading an undergraduate lab. After accepting a position with Morgan Stanley in Atlanta, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. After five years at the large wire house, he founded his own money management firm, Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), in late 1999. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 600,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.


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Is CAPE Valuation Indicator Portending Bad Things For Stocks?

In this week’s market video, we analyze Shiller’s PE, or the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio (CAPE). Stock valuation measures are generally poor indicators for market timing.  Just take a look at a chart of the standard Price to Earnings ratio.   Standard Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Chart So how…

2018 Market Outlook: What Can We Learn From 2017?

  Stocks Can’t Keep Going Up, Right? Given the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and NASDAQ were all up over 10% in 2017, it might be tempting to think stocks will struggle for gains in 2018. Therefore, it is prudent to see what we can learn from market history. What Happened…

Bull Market Update: Are Long-Term Stock Signals Still Bullish?

For several months, we’ve been highlighted and discussing the bullish case for stocks. We haven’t done this blindly. Our bullish has been based on probabilities. When stocks are trending higher and above key moving averages, it tends to produce favorable outcomes for investors. Back in 2016, the S&P 500 triggered…

Market Breadth and Volume Still Bullish For Long-Term Investors

An August 2016 analysis outlined a long-term bullish signal for stocks that has occurred only ten other times in the last thirty-five years. If we fast-forward to December 2017, is market breadth/volume aligning with or contradicting bullish data we have in hand? The chart below shows up/down volume (1996-2010) for the NYSE…

[VIDEO] Should Investors Be Concerned About Longer-Term?

Stocks have persisted higher for several months since the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) bottomed in 2016. So persistent that investors haven’t seen many traditional 3-5 percent pullbacks. It’s been a very strong run for stocks. But is the great bull market coming to an end? Are long-term charts warning investors? In…

The ‘Average Stock’ Is Breaking Out: 3 Charts For Investors

With the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Nasdaq, and Dow Industrials making new highs once again, I thought it would good to review some key indicators and look across assets. Today, I will go beyond the S&P 500 Index and look at the Value Line Geometric Index (INDEXNYSEGIS:VALUG).  We will look…

Breakout! Price Indicators Favor Stocks Over Bonds

There’s been plenty of conversation around stocks and bonds over the past 7-10 years. Many analysts are point to high valuations for stocks or to low yields for bonds. Much of this is also followed by opinions and noise. As I’ve pointed out many times, despite valuations, prices continue to…

[VIDEO] Rare Set Of Bullish Stock Market Signals Trigger

The past week has once again seen several major media headlines hinting at market tops and extremely bearish outcomes.  This wouldn’t be so hard to take seriously if those same sources hadn’t been posting the same for the past several months… while the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Dow Jones Industrials…

What Bubble? Household Stock Ownership At Multi-Year Lows

A Euphoric, All-In Bubble? Once a year, Gallup conducts a poll that provides some insight into the sustainability of the bull market in stocks. The concept of an investment bubble implies irrational investor confidence. Therefore, if skepticism and fear were near all-time, bubble-like lows, we would expect a very high percentage of…

“Very Long-Term View”: Massive Bull Market Breakout

Today we’ll take a look at the big picture for stocks… and the implications of a long-term bull market breakout. The charts will focus on the broad based NYSE Composite stock index (INDEXNYSEGIS:NYA). Short-Term View The NYSE Composite stock index traded near the bottom of the orange box shown below…