Posts From Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Chris Ciovacco graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. While at Georgia Tech, he gained five years of valuable experience at IBM. Chris also worked for the Georgia Tech Physics department as a teaching assistant leading an undergraduate lab. After accepting a position with Morgan Stanley in Atlanta, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. After five years at the large wire house, he founded his own money management firm, Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), in late 1999. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 600,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.
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How Does 2017 Compare To Stock Market Peaks In 2000 And 2007?

2000 Dot-Com Market Peak: The 200-Day Moving Average Was Helpful “I think one of the secrets to trading success is cutting down the number of trades you make.” –  Michael Marcus, Market Wizards A market’s 200-day moving average (thin red line in charts below) can assist in monitoring investors’ net…

Are Investors Staring A Generational Opportunity In The Eye?

We Tend To Make The Same Mistakes Over And Over If you are perplexed by the post-election strength in U.S. stocks, it may be helpful to take a giant step back. From The Wall Street Journal: Many of the financial mistakes people make are caused by a fundamental shortcoming: They can’t…

Will Small Caps And Mid Caps Continue To Underperform?

Outperform vs. Underperform Outperformance occurs when asset A is more profitable than asset B. For example, small caps (blue) and mid caps (green) both outperformed the S&P 500 (red) between November 7, 2016 and February 14, 2017 (see graph below). Note the red is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY);…

2017 Stock Market: Low On Volatility, High On Upside?

A Sign Of Complacency? Markets have experienced very low volatility for the first five months of 2017. What does history tell us about low volatility markets that are also posting new highs?  See the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) chart below – you can also check out the VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX)….

The Long-Term Bullish Case For Stocks (In Charts)

This post was edited on May 31, 2017 at 7:47 am to add the author’s video commentary. Similarities To Previous Major Market Turns The chart below shows up/down volume (1998-2017) for the NYSE Composite Stock Index (), along with its 50-week moving average (thick blue line). Notice how all-things-being equal,…

S&P 500 In Stare-Down With Defensive Stocks Like Consumer Staples

Short-Term Outlook Remains A Mixed Bag While the primary trend still strongly favors the bulls, the bears have made some progress on the momentum and vulnerability fronts. The chart below shows the performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) relative to defensive-oriented SPDR Consumer Staples Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLP). From…

How Concerning Is The Equal Weight S&P 500 Underperformance?

Lagging Equal-Weight In 2011 Over the past few months, the Equal Weight S&P 500 has lagged the standard S&P 500 Index (cap-weighted), which is a legitimate concern for stock market bulls. Underperformance can precede weakness in the stock market as it did in 2011 (see chart below). After the ratio…

Should Investors Be Concerned By The Latest Bond Binge?

Is The Trump Trade Overcrowded And On The Ropes? Given the Trump trade is based on expectations for reduced regulation, lower taxes, and faster economic growth, if investors had moved all their chips to the Trump table, we would expect strong outflows in defensive-oriented bonds over the past several months….

Bull Market Update: Trend Indicators Still Favor New Highs

This Is What Increasing Fear Looks Like The chart below shows the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average (blue), 200-day (red), and 300-day (green) during the transition from a favorable period to an unfavorable period (2005-2008). As you can see, 2008 confirmed a deep move lower for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX),…