Posts From Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Chris Ciovacco graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. While at Georgia Tech, he gained five years of valuable experience at IBM. Chris also worked for the Georgia Tech Physics department as a teaching assistant leading an undergraduate lab. After accepting a position with Morgan Stanley in Atlanta, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. After five years at the large wire house, he founded his own money management firm, Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), in late 1999. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 600,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.
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Are Bonds Flashing A Warning Sign For Stocks?

What Does Fear Look Like? Typically, when markets move into a long-term risk-off phase, the conviction to own defensive-oriented bonds begins to increase relative to the conviction to own growth-oriented stocks. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, the chart below shows trends in bonds (20+ Year Treasury Bond…

S&P 500: Rare Bollinger Band Signal Clears Important Hurdle

Part One: The Squeeze A November 30, 2016 analysis highlighted a very rare long-term occurrence on the monthly S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) chart below (1982-2016). Notice how the Bollinger Band Width only reached 2016 levels on three other occasions (1984, 1995, and 2005). In each case, the S&P 500 consolidated…

Rare Stock Market Indicator Flashes Bullish Signal

Only Three Other Occurrences Since 2002 The True Strength Index (TSI) is a momentum oscillator based on a double smoothing of price changes. As shown in the monthly S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) graph below, a positive momentum crossover (black moves above red) has only occurred four times since 2002. In the…

Should Investors Be Concerned About Market Breadth?

All things being equal, during a healthy rally, we prefer to see a high number of stocks participate in the move (strong market breadth). In recent weeks, you may have come across something similar to the MarketWatch headline below: Market breadth can be tracked in numerous ways. One of the…

Will 2017 Turn Into Another 1982 Bull Market Breakout?

Stocks Must Overcome 2017 Gloom Even with the backdrop of numerous positive technical developments, it may be difficult to envision the stock market moving higher given skepticism has been lingering for several years. The tone of reporting from this week’s World Economic Forum has had a decidedly pessimistic slant. How…

How Much Do Stock Market Valuations Historically Matter?

Stock Valuations Drift Higher… How Concerned Should Investors Be? As the markets kick off 2017, there are some common themes making their way from watercooler to watercooler. Two of the most common are: (1) stocks are expensive from a historical perspective and thus risky, and (2) if earnings do not…

Making Sense Of Several Recent (and Rare) S&P 500 Signals

Another Piece Of Long-Term Evidence In recent months, several pieces of longer-term bullish evidence have surfaced, including a rare S&P 500 signal that has only occurred ten other times in the last 35 years, a clear and factual message about stocks, a reliable contrarian indicator, weekly charts (1982-2016) painting a bullish…

History Says Bull Market May Have Room To Run

Consolidation And Confusion Often Precede Big Moves In Stocks The S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) recently broke out of a multiple-year consolidation box, similar to the bull market breakouts in 1995 and 1985 (see three charts below). The possible relevance for 2016-2017 can be seen by reviewing the historical charts in…