Investing Research

Caution: These Two Key Market Leaders May Be Topping

I am a big believer in following market leaders for both investment prospects and indicators. As investments, they can bring big profits. And as indicators, they can help us protect against losses. For example, when market leaders start to lag, they can have a big effect on the performance of the broader markets. Recently, we’ve seen this show up in the Biotech sector (U.S. equities leader) and are on watch

Volatility Hits Financial Markets As Stocks “Chop”

The market had a rough day yesterday, with recent leadership sectors getting hit hard. The small caps (Russell 2000) was down 2.34%, while the Biotech Index was down 4.14% and the Semiconductors Index down 4.47%. Needless to say, market volatility emerged a winner again. Considering that type of punishment, it will likely take some time to heal the internal damage (i.e. breadth). But there have been visible warning signs that active

Is The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Poised To Roll Over?

On the stock exchanges in the United States and globally, many of the equity indices we monitor are displaying potential topping patterns and signals. Some have reached significant upward targets and resistance levels. Others appear ready to create lower highs this month. Among the U.S stock market indices, the Russell 2000 (RUT) offers one of the clearest examples of an index that may be on the verge of a major

Biotech Sector (IBB): The Anatomy Of A “Blow Off” Top

Recent price action in the Biotech Sector ETF (IBB) and select biotech stocks has attracted a lot of attention and with good reason: it is not often that we see such a powerful and sustained move spanning multiple years. Many articles have been written lately (including by yours truly) about the potential top in the Biotech sector and my intention is not to rehash any of those fundamental or technical

Secular Bull Market Study: How Long Before A Bear Market?

Could the S&P 500 continue to advance to 3615 – 3944 before a cyclical bear market? Yes, that’s possible based on historical precedent. To better understand the current secular bull market, it’s a good idea to revisit past ones for size, scope, and quantitative comparison. Let’s start with the 1950’s secular bull market. 1949 – 1956 In June 1949 the S&P 500 launched a new secular bull market that rallied

S&P 500 Update: Cloudy With A Chance Of Meat-Bulls

Although the S&P 500 is just 1.5% off its all time highs, it’s fair to say that 2015 has been a chop-fest for active investors. And this doesn’t solely apply to the equity markets – it has been choppy for bonds, currencies, and commodities as well. Without regurgitating all the details, it’s also fair to say that investors have had A LOT of noise to deal with. This is the primary

The Amazing Run In Biotech Stocks

Biotech stocks have been on fire in 2015. In the Biotech & Pharmaceuticals sector of the Russell 2000 Growth Index, there are over sixty stocks up by more than 30% this year. More than thirty stocks are up greater than 50% while six have more than doubled. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) is already up more than 20% less than 3 months into the year. But this is nothing new

Much Ado About IPO Lockup Expirations: Data and Stats

IPOs are back in vogue and this is putting it mildly. According to Renaissance Capital, 275 companies went public in 2014, almost ten times more than the number of offerings in 2008 and the highest level since 2000. As the interest in IPOs has increased among the investing public there has been a predictable rise in attention-grabbing headlines about different aspects of the IPO process and their potentially sinister and

Why A Chipotle Stock Top May Be In the Works

The stock market has climbed back to (or near) all time highs with several stocks making new highs. However, one stock that is missing from that list is Chipotle (CMG). And this shouldn’t be a big surprise as I highlighted a potential Chipotle stock top in early February. At the time of that post, CMG was in the midst of a sharp decline. But since then, Chipotle’s stock has completed a typical

Are Natural Gas Prices Basing For A Move Higher?

Natural Gas prices started trending sideways at the beginning of the year. This was in the context of a downtrend from a peak in early 2014. The sideways movement indicates supply and demand came into balance. These periods are usually followed by breaks until the next supply/demand equilibrium is found at a higher or lower level. Consider the case of a break higher: everyone who bought during the sideways period