Investing Research

Market Masters: Trade The Chart, Not Your Heart

“Man, I wish I’d gotten out of that trade when price dropped under that support level.” Does this sound familiar? Have you ever let a trade get away from you? Of course you have and so has yours truly. If you’ve ever traded the stock market, there is  a 100% chance you’ve mismanaged a trade and paid dearly for it. Looking back over the last 15 years, I know I’ve made

2 Charts Revisited: The Put Call Ratio And VIX Term Structure

Back on October 7, I wrote this piece that focused on two bearish indicators and I said we could see some near-term weakness in the market. After a quick 4% drop in a week, we bounced and formed a nice looking V-bottom. Check out this chart of the S&P 500 (SPX):   I said at the time that I wanted to see both the CBOE options equity put/call ratio and

Emerging Markets ETFs At Technical Crossroads

Emerging market stocks came alive during the mid-point of 2014 that led to significant relative strength versus domestic equities. However, since topping in September, the Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) has pulled back to its 200-day average as it seeks to define the next path forward. VWO is currently sitting at a technical crossroads that includes shuffling near its long-term trend line along with a significant point of support near

Point And Figure: Caution, But SPX UpTrend Still Intact

Recently I posted a piece for trend followers using Point and Figure charts to highlight the strength of the S&P 500 (SPX) over the past two years. And wouldn’t you know it, less than two weeks later we got a double bottom sell signal when the SPX printed 1889.51 So does this mean that investors should go short? For starters, adhering to point and figure guidelines, it is not advisable to initiate a short

Apple Earnings To Decide Several Key Technical Patterns

Ahead of Q3 earnings after the bell today, Apple (AAPL) is setting up as a technical cliffhanger across multiple timeframes. On a weekly timeframe, AAPL has just broken down from a Symmetrical Triangle back into a harmonic Bearish Bat potential reversal zone (at D, below) it broke above in August. Overthrows above broad-ranging harmonic patterns like this are common. However, the break below Q2/Q3 2014’s rising trend line support coupled with an escalating 6-month

Market Masters: Using COT Data To Identify Turning Points In The Market

While I’ve been writing for See It Market for several months, it’s a great honor to write a “Market Masters” article. With my focus being towards technical analysis I am constantly watching the latest price action and in search of the best risk/reward relationships. These can be derived from momentum or breadth setups, which I’ve written about quite a bit, extremes in market sentiment, as well as within the actual positions

Big Moves Expected in Brazil ETF (EWZ)

The ishares Brazil ETF (EWZ) has a 30 day implied volatility of 70%. This means that the options market is pricing in a move of plus or minus 20% on EWZ within the next month. The precise calculation to find the expected move based on the IV30 percentage is (IV30/sqrt12) ~ (70/3.464) = 20.2%. Recent news surrounding the Brazil elections is obviously casting uncertainty on the Brazil stock market. Looking at the

Market Capitulation: Did Investment Managers Just Throw In the Towel?

Various sentiment measures are flashing previous levels of fear we’ve seen at recent major lows.  Andrew Nyquist went over a few here, but one more that I’d like to mention is the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index.  This measures the overall equity exposure for active managers. Although NAAIM’s website claims the Exposure Index is “… of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will

NYSE Composite Breadth: Deeper Stock Market Correction Ahead

A favorite breadth measure of technicians that’s often cited as we search for clues about the underlying quality of rallies and severity of sell offs is the net quantity of New Highs – New Lows among the 2000 or so components that make up the NYSE Composite Index (NYA). There are lots of ways to slice the simple datum NYSE New Highs-New Lows spits out.  One way discussed amidst last week’s sell off

S&P 500 Moving Averages: Is The Rally Cleared for Liftoff?

No sooner did the S&P 500 (SPX) run above it’s 200-Day Simple Moving Average (it’s 3rd longest streak since 1950) end has market sentiment appeared to finally flip into the much sought-after “excess pessimism” of a short-term capitulation as denoted by such developments as NAAIM’s Exposure Index plunging to single digits, CBOE’s Total Equity Put-to-Call Ratio popping above 1.5 and a spike in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)