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COT Report: Non-Commercials Long $SPY, Very Short $VIX

The following are charts and data showing non-commercial futures trading positions as of October 10, 2017. This data was released with the October 13 Commitment of Traders Report (CoT). Note that these charts also appeared on my blog. The charts below looks at non-commercial futures trading positions for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX)…

Stock Market Trading Update: Prepare For Volatility

S&P 500 Trading Outlook (2-3 Days):  BEARISH Short-term market top looks near. And an uptick in volatility (INDEXCBOE:VIX) could be on the way next week. There’s no real change in near-term outlook despite the push back to new highs for Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) and above-average strength for S&P 500…

Using RVX Small Cap Volatility Index to Time Your RUT Entries

With the Russell 2000 index (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) sitting at record highs, many traders are wondering how much longer it can continue to climb without a meaningful retracement. Aside from a 0.75% pullback in early September, the move has been straight up. While no trader wants to miss out on a strong…

Are Consumer Staples Signaling A Volatility Omen?

Will October see a volatility spike? We’ve been trading in extremely low volatility for some time… so this is a fair question.  Especially because one of my favorite ratios (indicators) is flashing caution here. That’s the ratio of Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) to NYSE Composite (NYA).  When the “staples” underperformance…

Russell 2000 Volatility Index Hits Record Lows: Trouble Ahead?

Small-Cap volatility expectations just smashed previous record lows. I’ve written a fair amount lately on various themes related to volatility expectations in the stock market. Many of these posts focused on the behavior of volatility expectations relative to their underlying stock market indices, including one last week on the “stand-off” between the Russell…

Is Market Uncertainty Showing Signs Of Complacency?

There are several ways to process, measure, and analyze market uncertainty. Today we’ll look at two charts that show investors uncertainty through different lenses:  One focused on economic uncertainty, the other focused on the VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX). The first chart looks at the global trend in uncertainty related to…

Stocks Rebound But Volatility Shakes Investor Confidence

The equity markets rallied last week breaking a two-week losing streak. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Dow Jones Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI) gained 0.7% while the Russell 2000 Index climbed 1.45%. Investors have seen an uptick in stock market volatility (INDEXCBOE:VIX) in August. And from the early action this week, that news…

Stock Market Volatility Index (VIX) Surges as RSI Tops 80

After periods of extreme complacency, we are often met with times of severe reversals. This has been the case for the VIX Volatility Index () which is often called the “fear gauge” over the course of the last several years. This morning, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the VIX…

Stock Market Update: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?

The second straight quarter of double-digit profit growth has supported the Dow Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) move to new highs. Broader-based indices including the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) haven’t been able to keep pace but are holding up. The jobs report on Friday easily beat expectations. The unemployment…