Currencies

USD/JPY Currency Chart: Is Elliott Wave 2 Over?

I’ve been watching the US Dollar Index (CURRENCY:USD) and Japanese Yen (CURRENCY:JPY) for many years.  And I’ve had several trading run-ins with the USD/JPY. Those who follow me know that my current working thesis is that the Dollar/Yen currency pair put in a major bottom. So where are we now? My…

The COT Report: Stocks Overheating, Gold Oversold

The following are charts and data showing non-commercial futures trading positions as of October 3, 2017. This data was released with the October 6 Commitment of Traders Report (CoT). Note that these charts also appeared on my blog. The 4 charts below look at non-commercial futures trading positions for the S&P 500,…

A Seasonal Second Wind For The U.S. Dollar?

In this article we look at a couple of key potential catalysts that will shape the tactical view on the US Dollar Index (CURRENCY:USD) at a time when the US Dollar bull market is looking very tired. The chart in question appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes…

Stock Market Update: One More Push Higher?

Stock market futures traded up near yesterday’s highs this morning, a sign that bulls are defending the bears attempts at lower prices. That said, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) remains largely unchanged for the last couple weeks… a tough tape to trade. Bond Yields & Currencies Treasury bond yields have broken…

Bitcoin Bounces As Bulls Look To Regain Momentum

Bitcoin peaked earlier this month around $4,950… but last week was brutal for short-term bull traders. A slight slip in early September gave way to a slide into mid-September as Bitcoin (CURRENCY:BTC) fell briefly by nearly 40% (peak to recent tough), briefly touching just under $3,000 on Friday. So today’s…

U.S. Equities Trading Update: Upside Limited

S&P 500 Outlook (2-3 Days):   BEARISH Upside is likely limited into Expiration as the rally stalls. There’s been no change in thinking given lack of movement here lately. While near-term trends have been positive, prices have the potential to reverse course into early next week. As stated yesterday, further gains likely…

U.S. Dollar Index Most Oversold Since 2008

Lots of indecision around the Dollar right now.  I’m honestly in the “I don’t know” camp when it comes to the current major trend in the US Dollar Index (CURRENCY:USD). For instance, did the dollar just finish a multi-year A B C upward correction and is it now headed for…

Gold / U.S. Dollar Ratio Racing To A Near-Term Peak?

Two of 2017’s major investing themes thus far are the return of Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and the prolonged weakness in the U.S. Dollar (CURRENCY:USD). Year-to-date, Gold is up 15.72% while the U.S. Dollar is down 9.57%.  This follows a multi-year decline in Gold and a multi-year rise in the Dollar. The…

U.S. Equities Update: Bulls Need To See Follow Through

How things can change with a new week. After struggling last week and posting losses, the major US stock market averages are off to the races this week. The S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) closed up over 1 percent on Monday. Of interest are the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (INDEXCBOE:TNX)…

The U.S. Dollar Trade: A Macro To Micro Analysis

Note that this post went out to my “Gone Fishing” newsletter subscribers this past weekend. After hitting a 14-year high at the end of 2016, the US Dollar (CURRENCY:USD) has lost 11% in 2017. Whether a reaction to Trump talking it down post inauguration, US real disinflation, Euro melt-up (which…