Bitcoin cycles on weekly charts still point to a good possibility of weakness this year with next Spring being a high probability timeframe when the Cryptocurrency could bottom out.
As detailed back in July when daily cycles started to turn higher, the weekly cycles always suggested that this might be a counter-trend bounce.
While recent weakness this week hasn’t been sufficient to shake out longs thus far, regardless of DeMark based sells on daily charts, one should watch August lows for clues. That lines up with 43.9k in Bitcoin and 2952 in Ethereum. Breaks of those lows would argue that a more serious correction is getting underway this fall and could fall into November before a year-end bounce gets underway. While long-term trends from 2009 are still very much pointed higher, as we’ve seen over the years, Crypto can definitely show 50-80% drawdowns before moving back to new highs.
It’s thought that Regulation might be around the corner that might adversely affect Cryptocurrencies, and its thought that any Fall correction in Equities should be difficult for Bitcoin to ignore, as a flight to safety and out of risk assets takes hold. (For those interested in the actual cycles i used for this composite, i would point to the 43 week cycle and 86 week and various harmonics of this) These tend to have high Bartel scores and strength and have served the test of time for Bitcoin. Overall, keep August lows on the radar for stops for long trades. I’ll provide an update on Bitcoin and cycles later this year.
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