Oil & Natural Gas

Stock Market Futures Trading Update: Watch Those Divergences!

Market Outlook for January 16, 2018  The S&P 500 and broad market indices are seeing some bullish continuation after the long holiday weekend. However, there is some technical divergence playing out. Buying on pullbacks provides the least risk today. Note that you can access today’s economic calendar with a full rundown of releases….

Crude Oil: Large Speculators Most Net Long Ever

The following chart and data highlight non-commercial commodity futures trading positions as of January 9, 2017. This data was released with the January 12 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). Note that these charts also appeared on my blog. The chart below look at non-commercial futures trading positions for crude oil. For the week,…

Natural Gas Update: Cold Weather Brings Heavy Demand

Prompt-month Henry Hub Natural Gas prices have traded up 30 cents in the last 2 days as cold weather looms next week. And this comes on the heals of an already budding rally in Natural Gas. There are two key charts to look at here for Natural Gas – Price…

Macro To Micro Trading Update: Market Themes & Insights

Note that this post went out to my “Gone Fishing” newsletter subscribers this weekend.  You can subscribe here.   Reflections and Inflections The Bloomberg Commodity Index started the year by setting a fresh record for consecutive gains, pushing it up more than 4% over the past month. This helped bring the US 10-year…

2 Energy Stocks Ripe For Mean Reversion

A candidate for my favorite chart entering 2018 is the Energy Sector’s (XLE) performance relative to the S&P 500. I believe we are working on a false breakdown below 2001 and 2003 resistance. This could be a big deal in 2018 and beyond. Just imagine if the sector that has…

S&P 500 Futures Trading Update: Time For A Breather

The broader stock market futures indices have stalled out at new highs made Sunday night. Stocks should find support at lower levels. S&P 500 Trading Considerations For January 8, 2018  As mentioned, I suspect value buyers will come in to participate at less elevated prices once more, so I am looking…

Stock Market Futures Trading Update & Outlook – December 27

S&P 500 trading considerations for December 27, 2017 Stocks are trading sideways in early morning action across the major stock market futures indices. The holidays have brought quiet trading but our trading process hasn’t changed. See key futures trading levels and commentary below for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and crude…

Futures Trading Update: S&P 500 Eyes Key Level, Oil Rests

Stock Market Futures Considerations For December 21, 2017 The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is recovering some of yesterday’s losses with a morning rally to start the day. 2700 is the big round number to watch again today – definitely some psychological trading resistance there. Once again we’ll watch how price reacts…

Natural Gas Prices Breakdown As Seasonality Weighs

The decline in Natural Gas prices has been stealth. And the correction may continue for a while longer. Natural Gas futures prices are moving lower yet again today. And this move lower has seen a key price support level fail (at $2.72). I highlighted this level in my last update…

S&P 500 Trading Update & Outlook – December 12

Stock Market Futures Considerations For December 12, 2017 The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is holding near the highs today as the Federal Reserve kicks off its two day meeting. Buyers look emboldened and the price action is still bullish. In the commentary below I break down the trading setups for S&P…