Posts From Dan Neagoy

Dan Neagoy

Dan is an independent options trader who believes in questioning and deconstructing assumptions. He is frequently agnostic about market direction and trades in a way that reacts to, rather than predicts, the market. He focuses on controlling risk and trading high probability strategies that allow you to sleep at night. Dan is the founder of ThetaTrend where he works to help retail options traders improve their consistency. He is also a reluctant CPA with a background in Tax Accounting and Economics.


Follow On: Twitter | Google Plus

Weekend Market Commentary: Diversification In Trading

Big Picture: One of the truths of markets is that we don’t get to choose the market environment. Investors want markets that go up all the time, traders usually want volatility, and premium sellers want implied volatility higher than realized volatility. Not all of those environments exist simultaneously and diversification helps us…

Weekend Market Commentary: Reading The Volatility Tea Leaves

The Big Picture: If we were sitting around at dinner right now, I’d be satisfied with the appetizer and ready for more. As many faithful readers know, I’m frequently bearish and almost always like it when we get red candles. At the same time, we all know that the entire…

Weekend Update: Market Indicators vs. Market Frustrations

“If it wasn’t this, it’d probably be something else . . . ” – A line from Elizabethtown. Yes, I’m embarrassed to quote a cheesy, mainstream romantic comedy and, sadly, it’s the most fitting quote for today. And on that, all I’ll say is that I’m sure glad that it’s…

Weekend Update: Stop Guessing Where Stocks Are Headed

The Big Picture: Does it seem like it’s hard to make sense of what’s going on in the market?  Guess what?  The market has no idea what it’s doing either. Recently I’ve seen numerous headlines saying the market is “complacent” and I don’t think I can take another one. The…

Weekend Update: Exploring Trends In Market Volatility

The Big Picture: Recognizing our biases in the context of what’s playing out is essential for long term success in the markets. For example, I recognize that I almost always believe stocks should decline. At the same time, I understand that historically they’ve moved higher. The entire investment industry is built…

Weekend Update: Gauging Sentiment For Stocks And Gold

Market Overview: Frustration is a common feeling to experience in trading. Shorter term traders can experience it on an intraday basis and for slightly longer term traders it can take days or weeks to play out. This year the S&P 500 Index fell around 11% and has nearly recovered that…

Weekend Market Commentary: Stocks Rip Higher Again

I’m away from home this week so today we’ll go with the short form weekend commentary with charts and some brief comments on stocks and the market. I’ll be back with a full market commentary next weekend. The relentless rally in Russell 2000 (RUT) caused me to close my April…

Weekend Update: Successful Trading Starts With You

Trading is one of the few areas where people believe a small amount of knowledge or simplicity will immediately make them money. As a result, many traders early in their careers tend to seek out overly simplistic advice and guru’s who make the process seem easy. I’m certainly not advocating…

Weekend Market Commentary: When Trends Turn Into Whipsaws

One of the more legitimate reasons I started trading options is that I wanted the ability to adapt to changes in the market by adjusting positions.  In other words, I wanted to avoid hoping trades would work or simply exiting when the didn’t immediately work. February has been a challenging…

Market Recap: Volatility May Hold Key To Bottom In Stocks

The Big Picture When the market seems uncertain, it’s helpful to step back and ask yourself what participants might be thinking at different price levels rather than just focusing on what the market is doing. The stock market talks to us in terms of support, resistance, consolidation, and trends, but…