Another mini-pullback, another buy the dip rally? Monday’s price action felt a lot like more of the same. Although we won’t know until we get confirmation, the setup is in place. Since the April lows, the S&P 500 has formed a nice channel that has seen 3 pullbacks (including the current one). The first mini-pullback was followed by a 93 point rally, while the second lead to a 60 point rally. But we
Since the February lows, stocks have seen several shallow pullbacks. Most pullbacks have lasted 2 to 4 days, while the lone outlier lasted 7 days. This consistent patterning has shown up in longer spurts during this bull market and is otherwise known as buy the dip (or BTD). Looking at the chart below, 3 things stand out to me regarding recent pullbacks: 1. Since the April lows, the market has twice
While prices perked up after the intra-day lows on Thursday, I still believe another leg lower will unfold. With the S&P 500 e-mini trading marginally lower this morning, the forecast below seems to remain valid. But we need to remain open minded and should know more as Friday takes shape. It is worth noting, though, that wave 2 on the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) contract may have completed already. As well,
Despite yesterday’s selling, the NYSE Composite (NYA) is trading within 1% (and came within 0.1% at 06/11′s intraday high) of completing the massive harmonic ABCD pattern that has been unfolding on it since the March 2009 bottom. Up a cumulative +161.7% v. the S&P 500‘s (SPX) 193.25% over that period through Monday’s all-time highs, NYA is a broader cap-weighted index of 2000 issues carrying substantial foreign exposure (almost 20%, with
As the market reverses course today, I thought it would be important to post a harmonic pattern on the NASDAQ Composite that I’ve been following: the bearish bat pattern. The reason this pattern stands out is its high degree of symmetry in price and in time. Looking at the chart below, we can see that the Bat reversal Zone had a 95.7% accuracy in terms of the 5 points in the pattern.
It was 12 sessions ago that the S&P 500 broke out above 1900. And considering that the index closed today at 1943 (or just 2.3% above the breakout), many may be inclined to refer to the past few weeks as a cruel game of “wear the bears out.” Look no further than the multitude of hollow candlesticks post-breakout to feel the bears pain on a time continuum… like little paper cuts with each
Up 12 of the last 13 days at mid-day, equities are cutting through some rarely-tread waters today with the June S&P 500 E-mini futures contract (ES) battling to close >75 on it’s daily RSI amidst redlining momentum. This “overbought” reading (defined as anything >70) is commonly regarded as sign of an imminent bearish reversal: something a glance at ES affirms with few exceptions. But, anyone who has attempted to use
After a few days of slow-go consolidation, the S&P 500 is thrusting higher again today. Although it is just 2 percent above the breakout plateau of 1900, it’s adding some mental pain to traders that are short. Yes, the market is getting stretched on multiple time frames. But, as most seasoned traders know, the “unlikely” can continue for longer than you think… So let’s look at where the S&P 500 is currently,
As many investors begin to prepare for the long holiday weekend, the major indices are nearing a critical juncture. Is a breakout coming. Or will the key resistance levels continue to hold equities back into summer? With the recent rally in equities, the major indices are trying to extend the “Sell In May” theme by another month. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are near new highs and the
As the market continues to be choppy and rangebound, it certainly seems to be following certain levels. The S&P 500 is currently pushing up against a resistance band around 1885. And should it break higher, many will be left wondering if 3 times is a charm in breaking out to new highs? Looking at the chart below resistance lies at 1885 and 1900. And the move higher is supported by