Posts From Andrew Kassen

Andrew Kassen
Andrew has traded privately for over 10 years. Well-studied in technical and quantitative analysis, as a trader he employs a rigorous price-based process for short-term trading of futures (with specialization in the Russell 2000 mini contract, TF) and spot Forex. As a writer his primary interests lie in the ongoing technical analysis of markets and at the intersection of philosophy, cognitive psychology and finance.
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S&P 500: Magnet at 2000 Setting Stage For Volatility Breakout

Despite – or rather, because of – Tuesday’s pop, a widely followed measure of volatility on the S&P 500 just printed it’s lowest value since January 4, 2007. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Daily Bollinger Bands - a gauge of the standard deviation of the index’s closing value from a given (usually 20-period) moving average -  closed today with a bandwidth of only .0143. This 7 year low – surprisingly lower than even Q2

Dow Transports: Generationally Overbought. What’s Next?

Though backed up against long-term trend line resistance, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) continues to grind higher in 2014,  moving from strength to strength in it’s largest nominal and real cyclical move higher since at least the mid-1980s. As a result “The Transports” have entered a rarefied, “persistently overbought” state on its monthly chart.  Since the Crash of 1987, DJTA has gone through 9 “persistently overbought” periods, defined here

Euro: Now Trading At Its Most Oversold, Ever

The EUR/USD Selloff Continues Unabated, But A Historic Extreme In Short-Term Momentum Signals A Euro Relief Rally May Be At-Hand.  EUR/USD tagged its lowest 14-day RSI reading ever (Since January 1999) today, signaling it is massively, historically oversold. Past RSI prints near 20 are few; but where they have occurred vicious short-covering rallies aren’t far behind – no matter the monetary/fiscal policy regime – registering double-digit gains in a matter

How Has NFP Friday Performance Fared Recently?

Just Ahead of Today’s NFP release at 0830ET, here’s a brief look at how Fridays featuring “the jobs report” have fared over the last 6 months (March-August): All Fridays: 25 Average overall: 0.05% 15 positive (60%) — Average positive: 0.36% 10 negative (40%) — Average negative: -0.47% Though May-July had a significant positive run, that period’s 10 consecutive positive Friday’s merely served to balance 2014′s scales, leaving Friday with zero

Break Points: Cyclical Setups for US Small Caps and the Greenback

Following yesterday’s nearly 20 point fade from the highs near 1190, the Russell 2000 Mini Futures (TF) consolidated during European trade in a narrow lateral channel between 1169-1171.  All that was lacking, it seems, was a catalyst worthy of notice which arrived in the form of renewed overtures of peace and a possible cease-fire between the Ukrainian military and their pro-Russian adversaries, even as the latter opens and advances along

Will September’s ECB Meeting Spark a Euro Rally?

The upcoming ECB policy meeting is arguably the most anticipated since last December’s FOMC where it was widely expected the Fed would begin tapering QE. This time around – amidst persistent signs of deflation and fresh off President Mario Draghi’s comment that “the risks of ‘doing too little’ outweigh the risks of ‘doing too much’” at this year’s Jackson Hole – speculation abounds over what accommodative steps the ECB’s Governing

Unbroken Cycle: Why Stocks Are Poised To Drop As QE Comes To A Stop

How do stocks react when the Fed begins to tighten rates?  How do they react when markets begin to anticipate the inception of a new tightening monetary policy regime? For years the FOMC has maintained a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), effectively relegating these questions to academic interest only, rendering them moot for investors and traders allocating capital and managing risk in an environment awash in dirt-cheap liquidity. A quick

Why Market Volatility Is About To Make A Big Comeback (In 50 Charts Or Less)

2014 continues to build it’s reputation as a year full of counterintuitive market dynamics: Q2′s zombie volatility has (finally?) subsided – just as the seasonal period known as the Summer Doldrums is scheduled to kick in. Some of the shine has come off broad momentum trades active investors have piled into such as High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG), Semiconductors (SOX) and Biotech IBB). Despite positively-received Q2 Earnings, Major Regional (KRE)

Negative Interest: Are Major US Banks Installing a Cyclical Top?

With Q2 Earnings out of the way for TBTF Banks Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI) in the US it’s time again for a brief checkup of the technical health of Money Center Banks. Amidst a faltering sector on the threshold of a (probable) cyclical tightening regime (with the reduction/elimination of IOER) and earnings distended with the bloat of aggressive buyback programs, shares of major US banks continue to stagger through

Is the Light of Positive Employment Data Pointing to a Safe Harbor for Stocks?

Ahead of today’s Employment Report (NFP), we took a look yesterday at the S&P 500′s (SPX) performance on Fridays over the last year in general, and NFP Days in particular. With the S&P off 0.75% at mid-day, it looks as though stocks may buck the prevailing trends of the last 12 months – 28/52 Fridays up, including the last 10/11; and 10 of 12 NFPs up – to start August