Posts From Andrew Kassen

Andrew Kassen
Andrew has traded privately for over 10 years. Well-studied in technical and quantitative analysis, as a trader he employs a combination of systematic and discretionary processes to day and short-term position trading of the futures and foreign exchange markets. As a technician and writer his primary interests lie in the ongoing analysis of markets and at the intersection of philosophy, cognitive psychology and finance.
Follow On: Twitter | Google Plus

Will Russia’s Market Woes Cause Decoupled US Stocks to Crater?

Most traders speak today of the bull run of the mid-to-late 1990s (place Greenspan’s 1996 “Irrational Exuberance” comment right at the epicenter and you’ll know the period I’m talking about) with a far-off look of nostalgic bliss (those who were there) or a kind of wonderment and hushed veneration (from those who weren’t). The period’s mythos is entirely grounded in fact, leading right up to the full complement of outlying

S&P 500 Fibonacci Pullback Sequence Strikes Again! What’s Next?

A month ago I pointed out in a note about the S&P 500‘s (Select SPDR ETF: SPY – Quote) fibonacci pullback sequence that the modest and viciously negated corrections that equities continue to have are anything but random in a larger context  – all building out as separate, strikingly similar leaves on the same up-trending branch of pullback and advance. Here’s what we noted then, following in the wake off

Chart of the Day: S&P 500 Defensive Sectors Trouncing Cyclical Peers

Check out the S&P 500 (SPX – Quote) on almost any timeframe and you’ll notice one all-pervasive theme about recent market activity: defensive sectors have effortlessly outperformed their pro-cyclical brethren. So just how handily have defensive sectors outclassed the rest of the S&P? Year-to-date, Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Healthcare (XLV) and Telecoms (IYZ) are up nearly +17% on average. In contrast, Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK),

Thanksgiving Day Massacre: Crude Oil Plummets

Those expecting an uneventful Thursday as the US celebrates the Thanksgiving holiday have been greeted by just that as S&P 500 equity futures (ES) listlessly trudge sideways. Elsewhere – in an asset class that’s highly uncorrelated, currently – conditions couldn’t be more different.  WTI Crude Oil (CL – Quote) dropped as much as -8.06% session-over-session early today, and is currently down -6.28% to just above $69/bbl, representing the largest single

Japanese Yen: The World’s Favorite Short Trade Is Ripe For Reversal

Amidst a market environment in which certain trades aren’t simply working well but are perceived to be without any risk whatsoever, the short Japanese Yen trade is arguably perceived to be the surest thing around. According to CFTC’s Commitments of Traders, speculative shorts continue to amble along with negative volume around record levels: After a year-long consolidation of the massive drop that began in late 2012 with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo

All Time Highs Are Bullish For Stocks. So Why Are These Screaming Caution?

All time highs are bullish almost all the time; and with 41 of them in the 221 trading days year-to-date (18.6% of the time), 2014 has had a lot of them.  In fact, though it might not feel like it amidst a considerably choppier year than 2013, 2014 is tracking to tie or just exceed the 45 all-time highs installed then (h/t to my buddy Ryan Detrick).  According to Sam Stoval

ISEE Put/Call Ratio: Stocks Sideways, Lower Just Ahead

The S&P 500 (SPX) is now up 1.2% over the last 9 sessions (effectively unchanged for the last 3), compared to a gain of +10.26% in the previous 12. This short-term trend regime switch from the “indisputably up” of late October to the “gap-ridden sideways muddle of sessions that add up to a rounding error” that has characterized November begs the question: are stocks merely “correcting by time” (a euphemism

S&P 500 Fibonacci Pullback Sequence: About To Play Out Again?

The structure of the S&P 500‘s (SPX) uptrend continues to follow a script that has become even more consistent in 2014 than it was in 2013.  The following sequence has pegged each trend regime – up, neutral, and down – this year as the index completed major oscillations in January-March, March-June, July-September; and is now about to finish another. Price moves sideways in a tight (1-2%) congestion zone for 2-5 weeks,

Non-Farm Payrolls: Is the Labor Cycle About to Roll Over?

Later this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it’s monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report (what it refers to as “The Employment Situation”). The benchmark U-3 Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 5.9%, which maintains a level just below the mean developed over the last several cycles: In case that seems skewed by 2008-2009’s elevated levels, here’s the distribution of U-3 data from 1939-Present.  As you can see, a 5-handle

Trading Journal: Long-Term Insights on Crude Oil’s Slippery Slope

Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) continues to struggle at finding a solid footing beneath $80 as Wednesday’s move up from $76.50 to around $79 after the EIA’s 1000ET report of lower-than-expected inventories has mostly faded throughout early trading Thursday. Shorter-term, Crude Oil and Energy plowing through a massive disconnect that will inevitably resolve when the instruments re-converge (more on that in Monday’s piece over here). It seems intuitive in theory that