Posts From Andrew Kassen

Andrew Kassen
Andrew has traded privately for over 10 years. Well-studied in technical and quantitative analysis, as a trader he employs a rigorous price-based process for short-term trading of futures (with specialization in the Russell 2000 mini contract, TF) and spot Forex. As a writer his primary interests lie in the ongoing technical analysis of markets and at the intersection of philosophy, cognitive psychology and finance.
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Melting Up: How Will A Positive 2nd Quarter GDP Print Impact Stocks?

Are Q1′s Frigid Economic Performance And Resulting Fears of Recession About to Thaw in Light of a Sunny 2nd Quarter GDP Print? Will the Market Warm to a Positive Report; or Could July’s Gains Melt Away Instead? At 8:30 a.m. ET this Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release it’s Advance GDP reading for April-June 2014, the first of three monthly reports covering 2nd Quarter GDP. Despite Q1′s

Semiconductors: Is the Charge About to Die?

In striking contrast to 2014′s dominant theme of “record low volatility” and the numbingly granular tedium with which it has been analyzed, some US equity sectors and industries have never stopped partying following 2013′s outlying bullish performance. A few have left pundits perplexed (e.g. Utilities continues to outperform it’s sector peers year-to-date), but others are held up as an affirmation that the post-crisis cyclical bull market – now well into

Breakdown: Why EUR/USD Volatility Is Ready to Resume

Single-day paroxysms brought about by geopolitical unrest and local black swan events aside, stocks continue to calmly shuffle through a dream-like state of imploded volatility as the “bubble in certainty” persists.  While many active investors are focused primary on equities, however, it’s important to recall this condition of zombie volatility is global in scope, sweeping in nearly every asset class across most developed and emerging markets. One of the most

The Reach For Yield: A Monster of the Fed’s Own Design

“The Committee recognizes that low interest rates may provide incentives for some investors to “reach for yield,” and those actions could increase vulnerabilities in the financial system to adverse events. While prices of real estate, equities, and corporate bonds have risen appreciably and valuation metrics have increased, they remain generally in line with historical norms. In some sectors, such as lower-rated corporate debt, valuations appear stretched and issuance has been

Biotech Sell Off: Bearish Harmonic Bat, H&S Top Patterns Point Lower

The closely-followed iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) continues to show technical deterioration following it’s mini-blowoff in late June/early July to complete a 4-month Bearish Bat harmonic pattern near $266. Over the last 4 weeks, IBB – amidst a broader environment justifiably referred to as “manic” or “bubbly” – has built out a Head & Shoulders Top pattern from which it has broken down during Wednesday’s session in trade below its neckline

Take A Long, Hard Look at the Russell 2000

In the wake of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s allusions during her Senate testimony today to a “reach for yield” and “isolated pockets” of valuations stretched “beyond historical norms” in Biotech and other industries, the small cap benchmark Russell 2000 is significantly under-performing it’s broad US equity index peers – as it has throughout most of 2014. The reasons for this persistent small cap under-performance are many, including their susceptibility to the

Biotech Takes Ill In Worst Selloff Since April

In the category of market defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, the super-heated Biotech industry is showing early signs of relapsing into the technically challenged behavior it briefly displayed back in the Spring.  One of the “Charts to Watch During the Summer Doldrums“, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB) is proving to be anything but dull, shedding over -5% in this week’s first two days of trading. IBB’s 6

Risk Off? Stocks, FX Carry Falter As USTs, Gold Find Bid

Following broadly-shared but contained losses across Asian bourses overnight, major asset classes assumed a cautious tone after European market centers opened earlier this morning, trading sideways to slightly down. Then ater the NY open at 0800ET, risk aversion kicked in more aggressively, escalating around 0930ET with the 10-Year Note and Gold bid as stocks tumbled and in-flows picked for the Japanese Yen. Here’s a snapshot of how things are evolving/devolving

Universal Collapse: Charts To Watch During The Summer Doldrums

With another 4th of July past, stocks now formally enter that wretchedly inert season known as “The Summer Doldrums”.  Ordinarily, this is the most uneventful passage of the annual cycle in major financial markets, and thus far Summer 2014 has epitomized this axiom of the trader’s almanac with a long list of straight-jacketed ranges across asset classes and record low volatility according to a host of measures. But is there

Could Q1′s Terrible GDP Actually Mean More Upside For Stocks?

Following last week’s Final Q1 2014 GDP Print at a staggering – but by many accounts, transitory – -2.96%, the gentlemen at J. Lyons Fund Management (JLFMI) took up the task of checking the number against the 25 Worst Quarterly U.S. GDP Prints In History. A couple interesting datapoints emerged: Q1 2014′s GDP was the 17th worst (in 2009 dollars) since quarterly records began in 1947. Q1 2014′s GDP is the