Posts From Andrew Kassen

Andrew Kassen
Andrew has traded privately for over 10 years. Well-studied in technical and quantitative analysis, as a trader he employs a combination of systematic and discretionary processes to day and short-term position trading of the futures and foreign exchange markets. As a technician and writer his primary interests lie in the ongoing analysis of markets and at the intersection of philosophy, cognitive psychology and finance.
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Japanese Yen: The World’s Favorite Short Trade Is Ripe For Reversal

Amidst a market environment in which certain trades aren’t simply working well but are perceived to be without any risk whatsoever, the short Japanese Yen trade is arguably perceived to be the surest thing around. According to CFTC’s Commitments of Traders, speculative shorts continue to amble along with negative volume around record levels: After a year-long consolidation of the massive drop that began in late 2012 with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo

All Time Highs Are Bullish For Stocks. So Why Are These Screaming Caution?

All time highs are bullish almost all the time; and with 41 of them in the 221 trading days year-to-date (18.6% of the time), 2014 has had a lot of them.  In fact, though it might not feel like it amidst a considerably choppier year than 2013, 2014 is tracking to tie or just exceed the 45 all-time highs installed then (h/t to my buddy Ryan Detrick).  According to Sam Stoval

ISEE Put/Call Ratio: Stocks Sideways, Lower Just Ahead

The S&P 500 (SPX) is now up 1.2% over the last 9 sessions (effectively unchanged for the last 3), compared to a gain of +10.26% in the previous 12. This short-term trend regime switch from the “indisputably up” of late October to the “gap-ridden sideways muddle of sessions that add up to a rounding error” that has characterized November begs the question: are stocks merely “correcting by time” (a euphemism

S&P 500 Fibonacci Pullback Sequence: About To Play Out Again?

The structure of the S&P 500‘s (SPX) uptrend continues to follow a script that has become even more consistent in 2014 than it was in 2013.  The following sequence has pegged each trend regime – up, neutral, and down – this year as the index completed major oscillations in January-March, March-June, July-September; and is now about to finish another. Price moves sideways in a tight (1-2%) congestion zone for 2-5 weeks,

Non-Farm Payrolls: Is the Labor Cycle About to Roll Over?

Later this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it’s monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report (what it refers to as “The Employment Situation”). The benchmark U-3 Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 5.9%, which maintains a level just below the mean developed over the last several cycles: In case that seems skewed by 2008-2009’s elevated levels, here’s the distribution of U-3 data from 1939-Present.  As you can see, a 5-handle

Trading Journal: Long-Term Insights on Crude Oil’s Slippery Slope

Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) continues to struggle at finding a solid footing beneath $80 as Wednesday’s move up from $76.50 to around $79 after the EIA’s 1000ET report of lower-than-expected inventories has mostly faded throughout early trading Thursday. Shorter-term, Crude Oil and Energy plowing through a massive disconnect that will inevitably resolve when the instruments re-converge (more on that in Monday’s piece over here). It seems intuitive in theory that

ECB Preview: Will Draghi Unveil Euro Area QE; or Set Off a Euro Rally?

Ahead of the ECB’s November policy decision later today, the air is rife with speculation over whether President Mario Draghi will unveil yet further accommodative measures (read: QE), particularly after the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement they are Doubling Down (Again) on QQE last week (also see here for the critical point this places Japanese stocks at and here for how BoJ measures will impact US stocks).  Any additional stimulus would follow a raft

Is Individual Stock Participation Confirming New Stock Market Highs?

Amidst the larger context of an equity market that seems to be way out on the teetering limb of a reflexive rally so full of its own bullish virtue that it might’ve finally jumped the V-Bottom shark, small cap benchmark index Russell 2000 (RUT)  – broadly shunned in favor of larger companies all year – has actually registered an expansion in upside individual stock participation over the past several sessions.

How Will the Bank of Japan and GPIF Decisions Impact US Stocks?

Markets rejoiced last week over the joint announcements by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that QQE (and it’s penchant for buying ETFs/stocks) will expand considerably along with a massive reallocation favoring equities in Japan’s largest pension fund (GPIF). But what’s actually going to happen? Here’s how the GPIF breaks down the changes that will begin occurring in their $1.12 Trillion portfolio beginning in April 2015: Let’s put a finer point

Japanese Stocks Trek Higher, But Not Out of the Woods

Pundits, analysts and traders – contentedly oblivious any other time – have fallen under the spell of Japanese equities, rates and monetary policy after the Nikkei 225 (NKY) exploded higher Friday following the tandem release of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest monetary policy statement promising still more Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) and the GPIF’s statement presenting yet another new target allocation for their $1.1 trillion portfolio that will