Investing Research

Is the Light of Positive Employment Data Pointing to a Safe Harbor for Stocks?

Ahead of today’s Employment Report (NFP), we took a look yesterday at the S&P 500′s (SPX) performance on Fridays over the last year in general, and NFP Days in particular. With the S&P off 0.75% at mid-day, it looks as though stocks may buck the prevailing trends of the last

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Is the Light of Positive Employment Data Pointing to a Safe Harbor for Stocks?

Ahead of today’s Employment Report (NFP), we took a look yesterday at the S&P 500′s (SPX) performance on Fridays over the last year in general, and NFP Days in particular. With the S&P off 0.75% at mid-day, it looks as though stocks may buck the prevailing trends of the last 12 months – 28/52 Fridays up, including the last 10/11; and 10 of 12 NFPs up – to start August

August Seasonality: Strong And Weak Trending Stocks

A new month is here. So it’s time to take a look at some stocks and ETFs that show strong and weak seasonality trends for the month of August. Let’s look at the data tables below and provide some august seasonality stats and insights. Strong August Seasonality A couple of items worth noting: Stocks/etfs like Eldorado Gold (EGO) and iShares 20+Year Bond Fund (TLT) have shown strong August seasonality trends

A Field Guide to Unemployment Friday Stock Performance

Despite (or because of) the punishment stocks sustained Thursday, many traders, active investors and market observers seem relatively well-assured equity markets won’t sustain anything more than a mild pullback. Bolstering this view is the near-universal recognition that Friday has (once again this year) assumed the mantle from Tuesday for the latter half of the year as the session for equity outperformance. Courtesy of our friends at J. Lyons Fund Management,

S&P 500 Study: Bounces Follow Drops In Market Breadth

Today’s stock market plunge raises the prospect of buying when the crowd is panicking. I’m not ready to make any broader comments about the current market outlook. But here are some numbers for swing traders to consider if the market and market breadth figures stay down as we near the close this afternoon. I did a market breadth & timing study based on the following strategy: buy the S&P 500 Depository

Is Margin Debt Flashing A Major Warning Sign For Stocks?

NYSE margin debt for June just came out and it surged 5.9% from May and is now just 0.3% away from the March peak. Let’s dig into the data and see if this is reason for investor concern. Margin Debt Since 1995   Margin debt has long been used as a contrarian indicator over the years,  with the thinking being once everyone is on margin this is a sign of

The US Dollar Index Is Nearing A Major Resistance Level

Today I’d like to break down some key Fibonacci levels on the US Dollar Index. Let’s start with a longer-term view of the US Dollar. Measuring the move from the September 2013 high to the May 2014 low creates resistance levels of 81.028 and 81.499. As noted on the chart, price was rejected at these levels in January, February and June 2014. A close on a daily candle above 81.499

Fed Agenda? Why The Reaction To Q2 GDP Is Worth Watching

On Wednesday morning, Investors will be greeted by 2nd quarter GDP data. As of right now, it is not a matter of whether there was Q2 GDP growth, but how much. And this has put the Fed (and economists and investors) in a bit of a pickle.  Perhaps this is why the capital markets are acting up of late… Yesterday, fellow contributor Andrew Kassen and I talked about the upcoming

Melting Up: How Will A Positive 2nd Quarter GDP Print Impact Stocks?

Are Q1′s Frigid Economic Performance And Resulting Fears of Recession About to Thaw in Light of a Sunny 2nd Quarter GDP Print? Will the Market Warm to a Positive Report; or Could July’s Gains Melt Away Instead? At 8:30 a.m. ET this Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release it’s Advance GDP reading for April-June 2014, the first of three monthly reports covering 2nd Quarter GDP. Despite Q1′s

U.S. Stock Market Overview and Economic Update

We continue to see the financial markets make slight adjustments to a slowing US economy. Here’s a quick stock market performance update from last week: The S&P 500 virtually ended the week where it began while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.82% and the Russell 2000 0.65%. Additionally, here’s what my trending indicators are saying: US Stock Market                     Trending Down Canadian Stock Market         Trending Up US Bond Yields                        Yields Trending Down For

Potential Warning Signs For Investors

There have been some interesting developments in the markets during the past few weeks.  They could be signaling some warning signs, so I’d like to bring these developments to your attention with some charts I’ve been watching. Let’s get right into it. The first set of charts takes a look at the retailers via the Retail Index ETF (XRT).  As you can see from the chart below, the XRT found