Investing Research

Dow Theory Non Confirmation Signal: Spring 2012 Repeat?

Dow theory can be a valuable tool to have in your toolkit. Especially if you keep the confirmation and non-confirmation signals in perspective of their given timeframe. On March 2nd, when the markets were near peak levels, I posted a research note on Dow Theory highlighting the weakness in the

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Dow Theory Non Confirmation Signal: Spring 2012 Repeat?

Dow theory can be a valuable tool to have in your toolkit. Especially if you keep the confirmation and non-confirmation signals in perspective of their given timeframe. On March 2nd, when the markets were near peak levels, I posted a research note on Dow Theory highlighting the weakness in the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJT). That wasn’t a call for a market top, but rather a call for some caution

Caution: These Two Key Market Leaders May Be Topping

I am a big believer in following market leaders for both investment prospects and indicators. As investments, they can bring big profits. And as indicators, they can help us protect against losses. For example, when market leaders start to lag, they can have a big effect on the performance of the broader markets. Recently, we’ve seen this show up in the Biotech sector (U.S. equities leader) and are on watch

Yahoo Stock Rallies Off Key Support: Next Move Important

On a day to day basis I truly have NO IDEA what the fundamentals are doing. That’s because my specialty is advanced charting patterns. In short, I focus solely on the price action. One stock that I have been tracking closely (and has continued to follow price expectations) is Yahoo (YHOO). If you’ve been following my writing, then you know I’ve been covering Yahoo stock as a technical pure play. The

Corn Prices Rallying On Dollar Weakness, Wheat Still Sinks

Wednesday was a tough day for the grains, with Corn prices falling over 1 percent and Wheat prices lower by over 4 percent. But this is the tale of two stories. As we have highlighted several times since last fall, Corn has been showing strength, while Wheat and Soybeans have been struggling. And this shows up on the charts. As you can see in the chart below, Corn prices (May ’15)

Volatility Hits Financial Markets As Stocks “Chop”

The market had a rough day yesterday, with recent leadership sectors getting hit hard. The small caps (Russell 2000) was down 2.34%, while the Biotech Index was down 4.14% and the Semiconductors Index down 4.47%. Needless to say, market volatility emerged a winner again. Considering that type of punishment, it will likely take some time to heal the internal damage (i.e. breadth). But there have been visible warning signs that active

Why Best Buy Stock (BBY) May Be Running Out Of Steam

Best Buy stock (BBY) has been on an amazing run rallying over 65% since the start of 2014. Is it time to take to a breather? The evidence is pretty convincing that it is. Here’s a list of indicators and occurrences that are concerning me. Use the Best Buy stock chart below for reference. Price is testing resistance from the mid 2000’s high Simultaneously, relative strength is testing declining trend

Is The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Poised To Roll Over?

On the stock exchanges in the United States and globally, many of the equity indices we monitor are displaying potential topping patterns and signals. Some have reached significant upward targets and resistance levels. Others appear ready to create lower highs this month. Among the U.S stock market indices, the Russell 2000 (RUT) offers one of the clearest examples of an index that may be on the verge of a major

Biotech Sector (IBB): The Anatomy Of A “Blow Off” Top

Recent price action in the Biotech Sector ETF (IBB) and select biotech stocks has attracted a lot of attention and with good reason: it is not often that we see such a powerful and sustained move spanning multiple years. Many articles have been written lately (including by yours truly) about the potential top in the Biotech sector and my intention is not to rehash any of those fundamental or technical

Secular Bull Market Study: How Long Before A Bear Market?

Could the S&P 500 continue to advance to 3615 – 3944 before a cyclical bear market? Yes, that’s possible based on historical precedent. To better understand the current secular bull market, it’s a good idea to revisit past ones for size, scope, and quantitative comparison. Let’s start with the 1950’s secular bull market. 1949 – 1956 In June 1949 the S&P 500 launched a new secular bull market that rallied

S&P 500 Update: Cloudy With A Chance Of Meat-Bulls

Although the S&P 500 is just 1.5% off its all time highs, it’s fair to say that 2015 has been a chop-fest for active investors. And this doesn’t solely apply to the equity markets – it has been choppy for bonds, currencies, and commodities as well. Without regurgitating all the details, it’s also fair to say that investors have had A LOT of noise to deal with. This is the primary