Investing Research

The COT Report: Investors Weigh Economy As Commodities Sink

The following is a recap of The COT Report (Commitment Of Traders) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of July 28, 2015. Note that the change is week-over-week. 10-Year Treasury Note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of

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The COT Report: Investors Weigh Economy As Commodities Sink

The following is a recap of The COT Report (Commitment Of Traders) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of July 28, 2015. Note that the change is week-over-week. 10-Year Treasury Note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of attention: “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when

The Rotation Report: Patience Leads To Market Opportunities

After Facebook (FB) reported earnings, 22 analysts raised price targets.  22!  That is a helluva clear sign the bull’s boat is getting full. That also shows a clear lack of diversity in opinion, which is a key characteristics of market reversal points. Remember the monster earnings pop for Amazon (AMZN) that lasted 10-15 minutes in the open market before fading? This week, LinkedIn (LNKD) and Twitter (TWTR) enjoyed similar earnings

The Greatest Risk Of A Market Top Since 2007

I realize with a title like this there will likely be great skepticism that this article is just click bait. However, that’s not the case and I’ve chosen my words very carefully. You see I am not saying we have reached a market top – we can’t know that until after the fact. I’m not calling for a future market top, because while we can judge the probabilities of an outcome,

Top Trading Links: Markets Keep Grinding

Things just aren’t as they seem, particularly in the markets. Joe Granville once said ‘if it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong’. Short term and intermediate term price action always leads to narratives and baseless assumptions in the media that become obvious. They mostly just distract investors. Luckily, the financial blogosphere is filled with insightful folks who demystify a lot of the noise. Let’s get after it with this week’s “Top Trading

U.S. Corn Weekly Review: Comparing 2015 To 2009 And 2014

The corn market really never had a chance this week (Thursday’s 5 ¼-cent higher close notwithstanding). The downward spiraling price action was initially set in motion by last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, which was released after the market closed on 7/24. In my opinion this report was the key contributing factor to the gap lower opening and close in December corn futures on Monday afternoon, which resulted in CZ5

Gold Oversold: Will Mini-Capitulation Lead To A Rally?

The SPDR Gold Trust Shares ETF (GLD) has stabilized over the past week. This might not sound like much, but could be very important as prior to this calmness, GLD was in a mini-free fall. Whether this is just a pause in the downtrend or a market that is ready to put in at least a counter trend rally is difficult to answer. However, I am betting on a rally from here

Why The Australian Dollar Is Nearing A Countertrend Move

The continued advance in the U.S. Dollar since 2011 has made short positions with several paired currencies attractive for investors with a multi-year perspective. However, the Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) appears poised for bounce soon. This sets up the possibility of a countertrend trade for a few months, as well as a lower-risk attempt at downward continuation later in summer or autumn. Here we present a big-picture analysis of the futures

Gold As A Safe Haven Through History

Estimating the value of gold through history is an inherently challenging pursuit. Nevertheless, Chartered Financial Analyst, Stephen D. Simpson has attempted to glean some insight into how ancient societies valued gold. An 829 troy ounce Greek talent valued near $1.0 million today was valued at $13.5 million in ancient Greece when used to purchase labor presumed to be valued at $20 per hour. A worker in the 5th century earned

Unusual Options Activity: 5 Stock To Watch (TWTR, BKS, NFX, MDLZ, VMEM)

Unusual Options Activity Report Here’s a quick look at 5 stocks showing unusual options activity with some color around the trading setups and recent news about the companies. Barnes & Noble (BKS) – The Sep $24/$26/$30 bull call spread risk reversal was put on 1,840 times for a $0.55 debit. A trade like this one involves buying the Sep $26/$30 bull call spread and selling the Sep $24 puts for

5 ETFs That Could Find A Home For PayPal Stock (PYPL)

Investors were treated to the news this month that PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) would be spun off from Ebay Inc (EBAY) to create a massive $45 billion stand alone company. The fervor surrounding the successful IPO of PayPal stock, alongside a valuation surpassing its parent company, makes for an interesting investment case. While some may choose to own PayPal stock directly, others may be seeking to integrate this theme in