Investing Research

Short-term Forex Forecasts And Analysis

Good morning traders.  We finally got a little bit of action overnight – some of the action was discussed on my site yesterday.  Below are my latest updates and forex forecasts. Note:  the Short-Term Forex Forecasts highlight price direction and likely price targets/stops over the next several hours. So this is

Recent Posts

Short-term Forex Forecasts And Analysis

Good morning traders.  We finally got a little bit of action overnight – some of the action was discussed on my site yesterday.  Below are my latest updates and forex forecasts. Note:  the Short-Term Forex Forecasts highlight price direction and likely price targets/stops over the next several hours. So this is very short-term in nature. These are not official trade recommendations, merely guidelines and forecasts that I am looking at. North

10 Reasons Investor Confusion Reigns Supreme In 2014

Considering the way the markets behaved during the first half of the year, it should come as no surprise that there are high levels of investor confusion surrounding the near-term direction (and theme) of the markets. On a day-to-day basis, investor sentiment ranges from a head scratch to a high five to you gotta be kidding me.  Several technical and fundamental indicators have flashed caution to no avail. And this has given way to an

Managing Risk Through Unforeseen Events

The theory of “black swan events” was originally developed by Nassim Taleb to profile unexpected occurrences or rare events that few were able to predict or prepare for.  The recent tragedy of the plane crash along the Ukraine-Russian border that led to a swift global sell off is one such occurrence that caught nearly everyone off guard. And events like these add another element to managing risk. From a regional

Is The Stock Market Starting To Show Some Cracks?

Last week saw a spike in stock market volatility. The S&P 500 finally had a move +/- 1%, ending the run of 62 days of below average volatility.  What looked like the beginning of a correction on Thursday quickly reversed itself on Friday when it closed less than one half of a percent below its all-time-high of 1,985. Still, the trending indicator that I use to determine the intermediate trend

Selling Into Strength: The EUR/CAD Short Setup

Based on recent wave structure, the EUR/CAD has likely completed 5-waves to the downside and should be set for a corrective rally back towards 1.4565 at which point I will be on the lookout to establish a short position. However, traders will want to make sure that EUR/USD does not gather too much upside strength, as that may offset any CAD strength relative to EUR/USD.  For instance, a push above 1.3540

What Does The Huge VIX Spike Mean For Stocks?

On Thursday, the S&P 500 dropped 1.18%, ending its streak of days without a 1% move (up or down) at 62 days in a row.  While this streak was significant and worthy of my attention (check out my Tumblr blog), something else occurred that day that caught my eye: the Volatility Index (VIX) spiked. In this piece I want to take a closer look at the VIX and market performance post VIX spikes.

Why The Russell 2000 May Outperform In The Days Ahead

Over the past few days, I’ve been watching the Russell 2000. And more specifically, the Russell 2000 (RUT) to S&P 500 (SPX) performance ratio. It’s no secret that the Russell 2000 and the small caps have been severely underperforming their large cap buddies in the S&P 500 this year. In fact, as of yesterday’s close the S&P 500 was +5.94% vs the Russell 2000 -2.58% YTD. But perhaps the Small Caps were

Breakdown: Why EUR/USD Volatility Is Ready to Resume

Single-day paroxysms brought about by geopolitical unrest and local black swan events aside, stocks continue to calmly shuffle through a dream-like state of imploded volatility as the “bubble in certainty” persists.  While many active investors are focused primary on equities, however, it’s important to recall this condition of zombie volatility is global in scope, sweeping in nearly every asset class across most developed and emerging markets. One of the most

Will China Be Joining The Great Rotation Anytime Soon?

Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev identified long-term growth cycles (50+ years) in market economies almost a century ago.  And I believe the economic turbulence over the past several years is part of a global shift into the next Kondratiev Cycle.  For developed nations, this has been a drawn out and painful transition.  One byproduct of the current Kondratiev wave transition is the Great Rotation, a phrase highlighting the transition from long-term bonds

The Reach For Yield: A Monster of the Fed’s Own Design

“The Committee recognizes that low interest rates may provide incentives for some investors to “reach for yield,” and those actions could increase vulnerabilities in the financial system to adverse events. While prices of real estate, equities, and corporate bonds have risen appreciably and valuation metrics have increased, they remain generally in line with historical norms. In some sectors, such as lower-rated corporate debt, valuations appear stretched and issuance has been