Investing Research

Top Trading Links: Market Seasonality, Analogs, and Breakout Levels To Watch

Wow, it’s already time to turn the page to March. February will go down as the month the bears threw it at the one yard line. The selling pressure has just evaporated. With the market going up nearly every day, it’s easy to get lackadaisical. But as active investors, we’ve

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Top Trading Links: Market Seasonality, Analogs, and Breakout Levels To Watch

Wow, it’s already time to turn the page to March. February will go down as the month the bears threw it at the one yard line. The selling pressure has just evaporated. With the market going up nearly every day, it’s easy to get lackadaisical. But as active investors, we’ve got to do everything possible to avoid that. The best traders know they need to focus on their process even

Gasoline ETF (UGA) Surges Higher, Outperforming Stocks Like Apple!

After months of falling Gasoline prices, February saw a bounce higher in the Gasoline ETF (UGA). And it has been a big one. I wrote about gasoline’s biggest 3 day rally in early February and how the power of the pattern continued to suggest higher prices… and a rally for the Gasoline ETF. The pattern showed Gasoline was bouncing off a major long-term channel support. Well, it’s now the end of

4th Quarter GDP Report Shows Growth Slowing

Earlier today, the markets received word that 4th quarter GDP had been revised down from 2.6% to 2.2%. The 4th quarter GDP report was previously thought to be much higher (due to a strong 3rd quarter) before coming down over the past 2 months. The revised 4th quarter GDP number continues to show a stagnant economy, with slowing growth. The politicians like to take a single number for a quarter and

5 Reasons Value Investors Should Avoid ‘Sum Of The Parts’

Value investors are always on the search for clues. Seeking out undervalued securities involves relentless digging, scratching, and a myriad of valuation techniques to derive conclusions. In frothy markets, value managers are also notorious for spotting red flags and smoke signals urging caution. I’d like to share one of those signals with you. As a value manager, there is no phrase that makes me shudder more than “sum of the

10 Reasons Bull Markets SteamRoll Bears

Sure all bull markets have pullbacks. And it’s not uncommon for bull markets to have a few corrections. But each one breeds more bears with reasons and explanations for why the market shouldn’t go higher. And as bears build up short positions in bull markets, they often get steam rolled… adding steam to the bull market. Here are 10 reasons why bull markets often steam roll the bears: 1.  At all-time-highs

Bonds Catch A Bid As U.S. Economic Data Remains Soft

Last week, my weekly commentary on the financial markets started with this paragraph: “The last two weeks the markets have rallied to new all-time highs. At the same time we have seen the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increase from a low of 1.6% to 2.15% yesterday. That is a meaningful loss in the bond positions that have been working for the last 3-4 months. “ At that time,

Is It Time To Buy Gold Again?

Gold has been a major topic of discussion thus far in 2015. We saw Gold prices make a violent move up at the beginning of the year only to fall just as quickly in February. It feels like Gold has been in a bear market for years and years, but amazingly, it’s been fairly stable for the last year and a half. To get a better idea of what is

Trading In The Information Age: Adjusting To “Quick Fix” Markets

Our society seemingly has given way to shorter time frames. We simply revel in looking at the next minute rather than “tomorrow”. In this fast-paced Information Age, we all want a little bit of instant gratification… and we want it sooner than now. I could digress into other areas of life as we know it, but that’s a broader societal question. What I want to write about is how our behavioral need for a

NASDAQ Trend Line Converging With 2000 High: Breakout Coming?

As the major stock market indices march higher, all eyes are on the NASDAQ Composite. This popular tech index is getting a ton of press lately because it’s approaching its former all-time “bubble” highs from 2000. Yep, it took 15 years to get back to these levels. I’m also seeing a lot of “buzz” about how it’s different this time. Well folks, since TIME really doesn’t exist I’m not sure what

Mutual Fund Investing: Not All Behavior Gaps Are Created Equal

I spend a lot of my time writing about the common mistakes made by investors because I operate under the assumption that cutting down on unforced errors could drastically improve portfolio performance for a majority of investors. The behavior gap between reported fund returns and actual investor returns that results from poorly timed purchases and sales is probably the most pervasive problem facing investors today. Well-known funds such as the Fairholme Fund