Investing Research

Melting Up: How Will A Positive 2nd Quarter GDP Print Impact Stocks?

Are Q1′s Frigid Economic Performance And Resulting Fears of Recession About to Thaw in Light of a Sunny 2nd Quarter GDP Print? Will the Market Warm to a Positive Report; or Could July’s Gains Melt Away Instead? At 8:30 a.m. ET this Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will

Recent Posts

The US Dollar Index Is Nearing A Major Resistance Level

Today I’d like to break down some key Fibonacci levels on the US Dollar Index. Let’s start with a longer-term view of the US Dollar. Measuring the move from the September 2013 high to the May 2014 low creates resistance levels of 81.028 and 81.499. As noted on the chart, price was rejected at these levels in January, February and June 2014. A close on a daily candle above 81.499

Fed Agenda? Why The Reaction To Q2 GDP Is Worth Watching

On Wednesday morning, Investors will be greeted by 2nd quarter GDP data. As of right now, it is not a matter of whether there was Q2 GDP growth, but how much. And this has put the Fed (and economists and investors) in a bit of a pickle.  Perhaps this is why the capital markets are acting up of late… Yesterday, fellow contributor Andrew Kassen and I talked about the upcoming

Melting Up: How Will A Positive 2nd Quarter GDP Print Impact Stocks?

Are Q1′s Frigid Economic Performance And Resulting Fears of Recession About to Thaw in Light of a Sunny 2nd Quarter GDP Print? Will the Market Warm to a Positive Report; or Could July’s Gains Melt Away Instead? At 8:30 a.m. ET this Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release it’s Advance GDP reading for April-June 2014, the first of three monthly reports covering 2nd Quarter GDP. Despite Q1′s

U.S. Stock Market Overview and Economic Update

We continue to see the financial markets make slight adjustments to a slowing US economy. Here’s a quick stock market performance update from last week: The S&P 500 virtually ended the week where it began while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.82% and the Russell 2000 0.65%. Additionally, here’s what my trending indicators are saying: US Stock Market                     Trending Down Canadian Stock Market         Trending Up US Bond Yields                        Yields Trending Down For

Potential Warning Signs For Investors

There have been some interesting developments in the markets during the past few weeks.  They could be signaling some warning signs, so I’d like to bring these developments to your attention with some charts I’ve been watching. Let’s get right into it. The first set of charts takes a look at the retailers via the Retail Index ETF (XRT).  As you can see from the chart below, the XRT found

Gold Analysis Without The Noise, Just The Fibs Ma’am

No COT reports, no China or India demand, no consideration of  so called “manipulation, ” just good old fashioned technical analysis using a very simple Fibonacci method. Let’s work our way through some charts and see if we can highlight some key Gold Fibonacci levels. Let’s start with a 5 year weekly chart of Gold Futures, noting some key Gold Fibonacci levels (price support and resistance).   As you can

Semiconductors: Is the Charge About to Die?

In striking contrast to 2014′s dominant theme of “record low volatility” and the numbingly granular tedium with which it has been analyzed, some US equity sectors and industries have never stopped partying following 2013′s outlying bullish performance. A few have left pundits perplexed (e.g. Utilities continues to outperform it’s sector peers year-to-date), but others are held up as an affirmation that the post-crisis cyclical bull market – now well into

Why Higher Stock Market Highs Matter

One of the most important traits of successful traders and investors is they think in probabilities. Markets have many moving parts and thus take on various shades of grey; set-ups are never binary or black and white. Why Do We Care About Higher Stock Market Highs? Higher highs remove the possibility of a lower high. A lower high increases the probability of bad things happening. The chart below of the

Follow The Leader: What’s Next For The Nasdaq 100?

If you haven’t noticed, large cap tech stocks have been on fire of late. And there’s no better measure for this sector than the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Check this out:  Since mid-April, the Nasdaq 100 is outperforming the S&P 500 by almost 2 to 1 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by almost 3 to 1. And since the equity markets typically only go as far as its leaders take

Why The VIX Could Stay Low For Years

Ah, the VIX.  Everyone’s favorite fear/greed instrument, but in reality it is probably one of the most misunderstood things in all of finance. So many have incorrectly (for years now) said a low VIX is bearish, because it shows everyone is complacent.  This just isn’t true.  The Volatility Index (VIX) is simply a measure of how much traders are willing to pay for various S&P 500 options over the next