Investing Research

Why Thursday’s ECB May Spark a Major Euro Rally

Andy Nyquist’s excellent multi-timeframe review of the US Dollar Index’s (DX) now-historic run (currently working on 12 consecutive weeks higher) notes the seasonal challenges this advance confronts as we enter the month of October. For the Euro – 56% of the US Dollar Index by weight – this couldn’t come

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Emerging Markets Fall Sharply In September to Un-Remember

September wasn’t kind to the Emerging Markets (EEM). After ripping higher throughout much of the summer, EEM has been punished by what appears to be a shift in capital flows, as the US Dollar has risen smartly while US Equities have held up pretty well. All told, investors watched the Emerging Markets fall 7.77 percent in September. That’s pretty unreal considering that was the performance for a single month. And although

Why Thursday’s ECB May Spark a Major Euro Rally

Andy Nyquist’s excellent multi-timeframe review of the US Dollar Index’s (DX) now-historic run (currently working on 12 consecutive weeks higher) notes the seasonal challenges this advance confronts as we enter the month of October. For the Euro – 56% of the US Dollar Index by weight – this couldn’t come at a more opportune time with a pivotal ECB policy meeting two days away.  Likewise for those itching for a

Why The US Dollar Rally May Stall Out In October

The US Dollar has been on a tear lately. It’s set to close higher for the third month in a row. And not just marginally higher: the past three months have seen the US Dollar Index surge from sub-80 to nearly 86. No doubt this is strong action, and may very well be the beginnings of a longer-term trend change. But October has been a tough month for the Dollar

Why October May Be RollerCoaster Ride For Stock Market

We’re almost to October and that could mean better things for the bulls. As I noted here on See It Market on September 18, the next few weeks were very bearish for the stock market based purely on seasonality. This played out well last week, but I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. Most of my studies have shown bottoms occurring the second half of October. The average

Will Palladium’s Price Drop Pull The NASDAQ Down?

There is something very broken with Palladium. The drop in price has accelerated into September and created one scary chart for traders. This shouldn’t be entirely shocking, though… at least, if you have been following my thoughts and analysis on this subject. The continuous liquidation comes on the heels of my late August post on BartsCharts.com, wherein I highlighted the completion of Palladium’s pattern higher. Since that time, it’s been

Is The Russell 2000 Top In? Or Do Higher Targets Loom?

The Russell 2000 (RUT) has been consolidating for the past several weeks in a wide range. And since the other major US equity indices have been headed higher, you could also say that it has been underperforming. Needless to say, this has several investors concerned, as the Russell 2000 is made up of small cap stocks and often is indicative of investors risk tolerance. Currently the Russell 2000 is sitting on

5 Warning Signs For Stocks

First off, let me start by saying that no one can predict major market tops and bottoms. All we can do as participants is to put together the pieces of puzzle to get a clearer picture of what’s happening and whether there are any warning signs. With this in mind, I thought I’d try to collect some of the puzzle pieces and lay them out in a post. In my

Death Crosses and the Limits of Market Rationality

Michael Harris of Price Action Lab penned a very thought-provoking post yesterday that slices through the noise on the Russell 2000’s recent Death Cross. In spite – and because – of it’s balance and evidentiary modesty Mike’s piece will not get the wide reading it deserves as financial news media ominously wails about the pattern to demagogue the morbid fascination and easily-stimulated anxieties of casual market observers who will wonder

SP 500, EURUSD Square Outs: When Time And Price Align

In some of my past posts I have discussed how we can move the decimal point on something like the low of the S&P 500 on March 06, 2009 at 666 and find time and price value. It goes something like this: move the decimal point to 66.6 and on Monday we hit 66.6 months since the low in 2009. This is called a square out, and reflects where/when PRICE

Why Apple (AAPL) Flatlined After iPhone 6 Announcement

If you’re an active investor, you likely understand that participants are constantly attempting to price in what they know or believe they know about the market or a given security. The latter often leads to speculation – see Yahoo (YHOO) or Alibaba (BABA) – but the larger point here is that markets are forward looking. This logic was on display with the recent Apple (AAPL) product launch. Please note that this example has more to do