The German DAX Composite began its decline well before the Greek crisis found its way back to the forefront of our trading screens. The Euro also began to firm up well before the drama in Greece. That simply means that some of the fallout in Greece is likely priced into the markets. Now this doesn’t mean that there isn’t risk to fall further, it just means that capital often begins to reposition before “events”.
The German DAX Composite began its decline well before the Greek crisis found its way back to the forefront of our trading screens. The Euro also began to firm up well before the drama in Greece. That simply means that some of the fallout in Greece is likely priced into the
The Uptick In Crude Inventories Is Leading To A Breakdown In Nabors Stock (NBR) The $4.5B oil driller earned more than $1 in EPS last year and is now projected to lose $0.22 and $0.12 this year and in 2016, respectively. The collapse in oil and gas prices is expected to cut sales in half from 2014 to 2016 ($3.4B-$3.5B). These projections may actually be too optimistic if this week’s
Back in March, I issued a long research report on the state of the Gold bear market. In that report, I shared how a number of reasons why Gold was out of favor (and remain out of favor). But I also looked at sentiment, seasonality, and technicals to make a point that Gold had an opportunity to rally. Here’s an excerpt from that post: Headwinds included: US Dollar strength, slowing
As a primary trend trader with a focused strategy of looking for higher probability setups, I often find myself sharing my two sense on charts and market trends. Today I will focus on the S&P 500 and its current trend. Earlier on StockTwits, I viewed a 20 year monthly chart of the S&P 500 posted by a fellow member of the community. I couldn’t help but appreciate the technical presence
Just last week, I wrote about 13 percent correction that occurred over one week on the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC). Well it’s now been a little over two weeks since the selling began and the Chinese stock exchange is currently down 21.7 percent off its highs (and from intraday peak to its current trough it’s been 25.7 percent). That’s quite a haircut for any stock market. Meanwhile, the S&P 500
The energy sector is struggling and it’s pretty clear the whole industry needs more time to recover from and (more importantly?) adjust to last year’s massive price shock. And this shows up on the chart for the Energy Sector ETF (XLE) Looking at the chart below, there are a few takeaways that are important to note. Underlying breadth leads price to new lows. Momentum divergences failed to lead to a rally.
Welcome to July, the month that has seen the highest average VIX return out of the entire year. Honestly, I first noticed this last year and was surprised by it. You’d think the dog days of summer are boring, but July is anything but that. Here is what the Volatility Index (VIX) has done the past 25 years. As you can see, July is up just over 10% on average
It is easy to point the finger at Greece as the culprit behind Monday’s mega sell-off, but it is impossible to deny that there has been an ongoing distribution among select US stock sectors for several months. Viewed from this perspective, yesterday’s price action among the major indices could simply mean the underlying weakness finally made it to the market’s surface. Regardless of what happens with Greece, the US market
If there is one bonds chart that has signaled trouble in the past its the Pimco High Yield mutual fund (PHDAX). The chart below looks back over the past 25 years and highlights a couple notable bond divergences: 1999 and 2007. Those divergences became market “problems” when the high yield fund broke down below intermediate support. Once the high yield bond market broke support, the broad markets turned weak together.
Regardless of your investing or trading strategy, prowess or experience, there will be times when everything (and I mean “everything”) goes wrong. I share this experience more as an educational piece on the realities of trading than anything else. For me personally, last week was one of those weeks where nothing worked. While the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 had fairly mild pullbacks of around -0.4%, my Tactical Alpha portfolio