Investing Research

Is The Options Market Signaling More Upside For Stocks?

One of my favorite indicators could be flashing a major buy signal here.  I’ve used the 21-day moving average of the CBOE options equity put call ratio a lot the past few months and it has done a good job of predicting things.  Here’s why it could now be sending

Recent Posts

Parsing The FOMC Minutes: Why A Rate Hike May Be Coming In 1H 2015

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from their last meeting, sending the market into its typical tizzy. Initially the market was down on rate hike concerns, but moments later it was up on an expanding economy and improving labor market. Yep, Mr. Market is going to do what he’s going to do and let everyone else spin it for what they think is going on. But behind the speculation,

Is The Options Market Signaling More Upside For Stocks?

One of my favorite indicators could be flashing a major buy signal here.  I’ve used the 21-day moving average of the CBOE options equity put call ratio a lot the past few months and it has done a good job of predicting things.  Here’s why it could now be sending a bullish signal. First off, to keep this simple, when this equity put call ratio trends lower – it has

Nasdaq 100 Breaks Out: Follow The Leader Part 2

There have been two important stock market lows this year and both came early on.  The first low came in February and ultimately could mark the low for 2014. The second one came in April and I would argue that it was the more important of the two.  Let me explain:  The April low saw a full retest of the February lows for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and Russell 2000 (RUT).

Why August Volatility Is Normal And Bulls Are Still In Charge

While in New York last week for a Yahoo Finance Contributor’s party, I dropped by the Wall Street Journal and shot a video with Paul Vigna for MoneyBeat. You can find the video at the bottom of this post, but one of the themes was August volatility and what to expect from this bull market. Here’s a summary of what we discussed: Seasonality is a big worry here. August and

Did Corn Prices Just Bottom?

Lots of interesting dynamics at play for grain commodities right now. In short, the past 3 months haven’t been kind to Corn, Wheat, and to a lesser extent, Soybeans. But each of them is trying to put in a bottom.  Corn in particular has struggled to gain traction, but perhaps the sideways price movement that forms a rounded bottom is part of the frustration that wears out investors and sparks

Why European Stocks Demand Your Attention

As European stocks began to crack in early July, U.S. equities continued to climb higher. Although this divergence seemed minor at first, it would turn out to be a near-term warning for global investors. Indices like the S&P 500 would eventually follow European stocks lower. And when coupled with the recent stealth drop in the Euro, it’s apparent that concerns around the Russian-Ukraine conflict (and correlated markets) need to be on our collective

Traders: Wait For Crude Oil Bounce Before Going Short

It looks pretty clear at this point that WTI Crude Oil futures have broken down from a substantial topping formation. A head and shoulders top could be drawn a few different ways. I prefer not to get hung up on every detail of a chart pattern or the measuring implications. The bottom line here is that crude oil has broken below a threshold that leaves it without any meaningful technical

Insights From Oil and Elliott Wave: Where Will The S&P 500 Travel Next?

The market is under pressure and traders are eager to answer the question: will the S&P 500 (SPX) once again bounce off the channel it has neatly traded in since 2012 or endure a deeper pullback? The following three charts derive insights from Oil and Elliott Wave Theory to offer further perspective about where the market is trading and the support levels that traders will be keying in on in

S&P 500: More Rally Ahead? Watch This Level

This is the question.  Is there more rally ahead for stocks over the near-term?  As a technical analyst, I prefer to follow price. So let’s see what investors are looking at today and in the days ahead. The bounce from 1900 wasn’t entirely unexpected; myself and other technicians had been eyeing that level for several days leading up to the overnight puncture of 1900 on the e-mini futures heading into

Let’s Go Streaking! Insights Into A Maturing Bull Market

There are some amazing streaks happening right now that have many concerned the bull market has gone on for too long. Well, over at Yahoo Finance I asked the question how old is the bull market? You might be surprised, but my findings suggested this bull market might be mature, but I wouldn’t call it old when looking at past bull cycles. We’ve gone 34 months with a 10% correction,