Tag: economic data

U.S. Economy: Soft Landing or Recession This Year?

The stock market is betting on a Goldilocks scenario. Jerome Powell doesn’t foresee a recession, instead he forecasts a soft landing. Apollo is bettering...

Capital Neglect Is Killing Capitalism

Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services. “Ism” is a system. Capitalism is an economic system based on the private ownership of...

The Fed’s Soft Landing, FedEx’s distress signal, and the Threat of...

According to the last week’s economic data inflation continues to surprise upside whereas the economy continues to surprise downside. Nevertheless, the recession hasn’t come yet, but the...

Yields Are Defying Yesterday’s Logic

Many astute bond investors are baffled by rising bond yields. Economic activity is slowing, inflation expectations are falling, the Fed is aggressively fighting inflation,...

Deglobalization and Central Banking

There are primarily two opinions on the future path for inflation. The widely held view thinks inflation will resort back to pre-pandemic levels as...

Post PCE: What is the Pre-PCE Market Saying?

Stocks are primarily unchanged or trading slightly higher as pressures from rising food and energy prices persist.  As I reiterate, among the war's immediate external...

Market Cycle Indicators Weaken, Can U.S. Hold Off A Recession?

From a markets’ perspective, in normal times, good news is good and bad news is bad. Who doesn’t like getting some surprisingly good news?...

Shifting Economic Winds… From Inflation To Recession

As you probably notice in financial media and in your real life, everyone is talking about inflation. This should not be viewed as the...

2022 Investment Outlook For Stocks and Bonds

Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong? As fiscal and monetary support for the...

2022 Financial Markets Outlook Faces Several Headwinds

The first part of our 2022 outlook looks through the front windshield and contrasts 2021s tailwinds with 2022s growing headwinds. While no one knows...

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