Tag: federal reserve

Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think

In 2019, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates and restarted QE despite a healthy economy. Today, inflation is higher than the Fed’s target,...

What Would Make the Federal Reserve Raise or Lower Interest Rates?

Currently, there is no real reason for the Federal Reserve to either hike or lower the interest rates. The overall market has absorbed these rates...

Did Inflation Really Fall to the Federal Reserve’s Target?

Friday the market woke up to great news. Mission accomplished on inflation. Yahoo Finance reported: “The Fed's preferred inflation measure — a "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures...

Today’s Inflation versus The 1970’s RollerCoaster (Part II)

Part One of this series highlights how the government’s fixation with full employment and the Fed’s belief in the faulty Phillips Curve model from 1965...

The Goldilocks Narrative Reigns For Now

Market narratives have been around for ages. However, the internet and, more recently, social media allow narratives to spread much quicker. Accordingly, they have...

Commodities, Inflation: Super Cycles Do Not Just Fade Away

On inflation I like this quote- “Goods deflation likely transitory as downward pressure on goods demand and input costs are fading. 1H24 global core inflation likely...

The Federal Reserve Pauses: What Comes Next?

After hiking rates by 5.25% since March 2022, the Fed is in a wait-and-see period, commonly deemed a pause. Since the Fed started hiking...

3 Things To Watch This Week: Earnings, Inflation Data, and Small/Mid...

After a smoking hot week for the stock market, we sifted through the data and present you with 3 key takeaways and data points: Earnings...

Real Rates Drive Stock Prices

My firm's Daily Market Commentary provides market insight, analyzes economic and financial news, and highlights a few graphs worthy of discussion. Occasionally, I stumble upon a...

Bond Market Noise Hides Tremendous Opportunity

Treasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plethora of influences can explain deviations between yields and...

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