Is the September Stock Market Correction Over?

nasdaq price performance versus stock market indices september investing image

Although a 10-15% stock market correction is normal, the bigger question is whether the bounce we just saw from recent lows is a sell rather than buy opportunity?

Both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Indices are trading into resistance.

For the S&P 500, that number is 342. For the Nasdaq 100, we are looking at 282. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has to hold 28,000.

Interestingly, volatility also closed green today which tells me, investors are nervous in spite of the slew of good news with the Nvidia (NVDA) merger, vaccine hopes, and a China rebound.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released Wednesday.

The expectations are for a dovish stance.

What interests me is what they say about their plan for getting inflation up, which has yet to be defined.

Is there a possibility of another severe market correction this year?

Without a stimulus plan from the government, although I believe it will happen in the final hours before the election, the stock market will get hurt.

Plus, the election and rising protests could hurt if the violence increases.

Moreover, a second wave of COVID is the most frightening possibility.

So, what should investors watch for now?

The outliers are still the best “tell.”

Junk Bonds (JNK etf) have to hold around 104.80.  High grade corporate bonds (LQD etf) should hold 135.50.

Perhaps the most important outlier is what happens to the dollar. A move in DXY or the dollar continuous contract under 92.80 could spark more buying in the commodities, but also more fear about the recent rally in the Chinese Yuan.

Volatility is yet another key as the index held the 50-DMA and over 26.00 could be an early warning sign.

For now, I am still very bullish in gold, silver, and miners.

I am also watching, with no position, a bullish bias in uranium and natural gas.

If the market holds, I still like some of the small cap growth stocks.

For example, I am watching Fastly (FSLY) for a move back over 84.00.

Otherwise, please watch the indices carefully here and if they start to rollover, I would raise stops and take profits on the winners.

Trading Levels for Key Stock Market ETFs:

S&P 500 (SPY) 342 key resistance to clear 338 support then 333

Russell 2000 (IWM) 153 pivotal 150.75 key support

Dow (DIA) 280 pivotal 274 key

Nasdaq (QQQ) 282 resistance 275 support 272 must hold

KRE (Regional Banks) Could not confirm a recuperation phase so back to bearish

SMH (Semiconductors) 171.50 support 175 resistance 

IYT (Transportation) Strong relative to the other sectors. Must hold 200

IBB (Biotechnology) Sitting right on the 50-DMA at 135.90

XRT (Retail) 49.00 the 50-DMA

Volatility Index (VXX) Eyes here tomorrow especially if VIX clears 26.00

Junk Bonds (JNK) 104.80 support 

LQD (iShs iBoxx High yield Bonds) 135.50 support

Check out this video I did with The Dollar Diva (Debbie) from September 14:

Twitter: @marketminute

The author may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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