US Markets

U.S. Corn Market Outlook: How Much Bad News Is Priced In?

U.S. March corn futures closed down 5 ¼ cents per bushel week on week, finishing at $3.47 ½. Corn bulls are on the ropes as the fundamental backdrop continues to look weak. But how much is already priced in? Let’s discuss what’s happening in the corn market and review the…

Will The Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates In 2018?

Much as I expected, the Federal Reserve hiked again in its December meeting. In the background, the Fed continues to wind down its balance sheet by reducing principal reinvestment at a progressive pace… i.e. passive Quantitative Tightening or QT. Not much major changed in the statement and you can take the SEP with a grain…

Inflation Indicator Highlights Uncertainty For Bond Traders

Well rounded investors and traders need to understand what’s happening across asset classes. If money is coming out of one asset class, it’s likely to flow into another one. Right now, equities are red hot as the stock market is making new all time highs… almost daily it seems. At…

Research Update: Stocks Bullish For Now, But 2018 Awaits…

The world does not always come at you the way you expect. In lieu of a “Market Update” this week, I would like to direct your attention to two pieces that we (Baird) published last week. The first piece is our 2018 Economic & Stock Market Outlook (Clouds Could Test Investor…

Tax Cut Rally Has Investors Drinking From The Punch Bowl

The term “priced in” is a phrase used frequently by Wall Street and the financial media. This expression is used to describe how much the price of stock or a market has accounted for an anticipated event. For example, consider a pharmaceutical stock that has risen 50% over the last…

Natural Gas Sees Lowest Close Since February

Prompt-month Natural Gas prices recorded its lowest close since February today. This comes amid milder weather forecasts as holidays approach. It could be tough sledding for Natural gas futures in the weeks ahead, as seasonality trends show the month of December to be neutral, and January bearish. The technicals aren’t…

Corn Futures Weekly Trading Outlook: Relief Rally

U.S. March corn futures are showing some signs of life… but is this simply a relief bounce from oversold conditions? Prices rose last week, giving bulls some breathing room. But they will need to change the fundamental picture for an rally to have staying power. Let’s discuss what’s happening in…

Corporate Tax Cuts: The Seen… and the Unseen

Since Donald Trump was elected President, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX,) has rallied over 21% or nearly 500 points. In our opinion, a good portion of the gain is attributable to his promise, as well as congressional efforts, to reform the tax code. In particular, the proposed sharp reduction in the…

Market Commentary: Tax Reform Bill Inches Forward But Still In Limbo

The house passed its version of the tax reform bill, and it appears likely that some version will also pass the Senate, giving Republicans a much-needed victory. Under the Senate’s version, a majority of low-income and many middle-income taxpayers will see their taxes increase over the next 10-years (some would…