S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook for June 24, 2016 (ES_F)
The EU Referendum (Brexit) surprised the market with a Britain vote to exit the EU. The currency markets are roiling as the British Pound falls in the wake of the news. And global stock markets are trading lower.
S&P 500 futures spiked ahead of the vote into big resistance above 2115, but fell 120 points before beginning a bounce that holds as tenuous. Markets are likely to bounce from these levels with a key level to breach and hold above 2022 (note we sit above that level at the time of this writing – early morning).
Failure to hold 2019 will bring sellers back into the market. That would likely put 1995 in focus, which is a very big support level. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty, and the financial markets like that the least. With this in mind, I do not expect a big recovery. Buyers will try to exercise strength above 2033. Bounces are likely to be sold, but for now, I surmise we are going to hold the lows.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P Futures
S&P 500 Futures Outlook for June 24, 2016 –
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2033.25, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2001.5 with positive momentum. Be very careful watching for sellers showing up near 2007, as that could signal that we will return to lower levels. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2001.5 are 2004.5, 2007, 2012, 2017.25, 2019.5, 2025, 2027.5, 2031.25, 2033.25, 2038.5, 2042.5, 2046.5, 2051.5, 2053.5, 2057.75, 2061.5, 2065.75, 2071.25, 2074.75 (big resistance), 2078, and perhaps 2081.25 to 2084.5, if buyers shift into gear.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2019.25 or at the failed retest of 2031.75 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2031.75 entry, as the chart may be attempting recovery. Remember to watch the behavior around 2033 – this will be critical. Retracement into lower levels from 2031.75 gives us the targets 2029.75, 2027.25, 2025.5, 2022.5, 2019.5, 2017.25, 2014.25, 2012.5 (support to watch), 2007.5, 2005.75, 2001.25, 1999.5, and perhaps back to a very big test of 1995.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
Nasdaq Futures
Nasdaq futures outlook for June 24, 2016 (NQ_F) – Nasdaq futures moved down close to 260 points from its highs, but is bouncing well off the lows this morning. Significant resistance sits near 4330 and support sits near 4260. Below 4260, we could revisit morning lows of 4234. Below that, a deep support level sits below that near 4179.25.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4309.5, or a positive retest of 4280.25 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Big resistance sits between 4330 -4335. Watch for the lower high to develop in the long opening at 4280.25, and for resistance to show up at 4306.25, as momentum may shift to sellers with the dip lower. Targets from 4280.25 are 4298, 4306.25, 4311.25, 4320.25, 4322.75, 4330.25, 4335.25, 4337.75, 4342, and 4352.5. Range expansions above 4352.5 could push us into 4364.5-4368.75.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4293.5 or at the failed retest of 4301.5 with negative divergence. If range expands positively, we will watch for another shorting event up near 4332. Buyers continue to successfully stage bounces off higher lows to keep the move upward going. Retracement into lower levels from 4301.5 gives us the targets 4297.25, 4294.5, 4286.5, 4277.75, 4274.5, 4266.75, 4256.75, 4238.5, 4234.5, 4227.5, and perhaps 4184.5 to 4179.5, if sellers accelerate the process.
Crude Oil
Crude Oil Trading Outlook for June 24, 2016 (CL_F) – Another news driven day in oil this morning, and oil dipped well into deep support levels. Bounces should still be sold, but it does seem likely that, at least today, that we hold support lows set in the early morning.
The trading range on crude oil suggests support action near 46.7, and resistance behavior near 50.53.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 48.23, or at a bounce off 47.45 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 47.45 are 47.75, 48.12, 48.43, 48.64, 48.8, 49.04, 49.4, 49.62, 49.9, 50.03, 50.14, 50.34, 50.53 (big resistance), 50.74, 50.91, and possibly 51.12 to 51.47. Momentum is damp, but holding slightly positive.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 47.7, or at the failed retest of 48.63 with negative divergence. These setups give us targets from 48.63 into 48.46, 48.34, 48.09, 47.97, 47.74, 47.48, 47.13, 46.89, 46.7, 46.44, and perhaps 46.27 to 45.94.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
