Posts From Brad Tompkins

Brad Tompkins
Brad Tompkins has been actively investing for over 20 years. He has an Economics degree and a professional background in accounting, business management, and computer programming. Brad currently trades futures markets concentrating on equity indices, the energy complex and treasury bonds. He also heavily trades in the option markets to generate short term income and manage long term risk. Brad is a technical trader with an eye towards big picture macro fundamentals. He enjoys reading and discussing all things related to markets, financial history and economics.
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Why Interest Rates Are Going Nowhere Fast

There has been a great deal of discussion regarding whether the Fed is going to continue down the path of ZIRP [Zero Interest Rate Policy] or if we will begin to see interest rates begin to tick higher.  It is an important topic and most writings are attempting to predict…

4 Key Indicators To Watch For Market Divergence

Last month I wrote a short article about why I thought stock market returns are going to be muted over the next 10 years. A prediction of low returns is not a crash prediction nor is it a prediction of a top in the stock market. Typically an intermediate top…

3 Reasons The Aging Bull Market Is Running Out Of Steam

When you are managing your retirement portfolio, it makes sense to keep tabs on the economic factors that have reliable correlation to long term investment performance. Future stock market returns looking out 10 years or more are inversely related to market valuations. A low valuation implies higher long term returns…

Apple Options Trading Idea into Earnings

By Brad Tompkins Since we’ve now entered another earnings reporting season, I thought I’d take the time to layout a nice options cash flow trade. The basic strategy is a Put Spread Collar which pairs a covered call with a protective put spread. For this exercise, we’ll look at an Apple options…

Nasdaq 100 Symmetry: Potential for Several More Weeks Consolidation

By Brad Tompkins Back in September, I wrote a piece detailing the difficult trading period we experienced following the sharp drop last summer (Read: Technical Patterning Like Trying to Hit a Change Up).  Well, it’s déjà vu!  The current Nasdaq 100 index chart is forming an eerily similar pattern with the…

EEM Chart Note: Emerging Markets Breaking Out

By Brad Tompkins It has been a month since we last visited the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) chart (previous article) just as it broke lower to retest the 200 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). As it turned out, it was a short-lived breakdown that coiled enough energy to propel the…

IWM Chart Note: Nearing Important Price Zone

By Brad Tompkins I was running through some charts late yesterday and noticed that IWM (Russell 2000 iShares) is nearing an important support/resistance confluence zone. The reaction over the next week or two will tell us more about whether or not we’ll see a year-end rally. So keep an eye on the…

Emerging Markets (EEM) At Key Price Level

By Brad Tompkins The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) closed at a pivotal price level yesterday,  just below its 2 month range and between the 50 and 200 Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This area around 40.50 is an important confluence of support. With this in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me to…

Forecasting the S&P 500 from GDP Data and What It’s Telling Us Now

By Brad Tompkins Last week the commerce department released their estimate of 2012 third quarter’s GDP growth rate. The preliminary 2.0% growth was better than 1.3% the previous quarter (revised down from 1.7%), but not much to celebrate. We’ve also now heard a little over half of the earnings announcements for…