Posts From Brad Tompkins

Brad Tompkins
Brad Tompkins has been actively investing for over 20 years. He has an Economics degree and a professional background in accounting, business management, and computer programming. Brad currently trades futures markets concentrating on equity indices, the energy complex and treasury bonds. He also heavily trades in the option markets to generate short term income and manage long term risk. Brad is a technical trader with an eye towards big picture macro fundamentals. He enjoys reading and discussing all things related to markets, financial history and economics.
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S&P 500 Valuations Still Lofty Per Sales, Earnings, And PE Multiples

A while back I wrote an article to make a case for lowering expectations on long term stock market returns over the coming 10 year horizon. I’ve continued watching macro statistics to see if there are any new indications for economic direction. Market prices march on reflecting staying power to support the case for the sustained bull market run. However, I want to take a more focused study into the

4 Key Indicators To Watch For Market Divergence

Last month I wrote a short article about why I thought stock market returns are going to be muted over the next 10 years. A prediction of low returns is not a crash prediction nor is it a prediction of a top in the stock market. Typically an intermediate top is preceded by signs of market divergence – warning signs of cracks under the surface exposed by market new highs

3 Reasons The Aging Bull Market Is Running Out Of Steam

When you are managing your retirement portfolio, it makes sense to keep tabs on the economic factors that have reliable correlation to long term investment performance. Future stock market returns looking out 10 years or more are inversely related to market valuations. A low valuation implies higher long term returns and a high valuation historically leads to diminished portfolio returns. Peek into Warren Buffet’s investment playbook. He has an extremely

Apple Options Trading Idea into Earnings

By Brad Tompkins Since we’ve now entered another earnings reporting season, I thought I’d take the time to layout a nice options cash flow trade. The basic strategy is a Put Spread Collar which pairs a covered call with a protective put spread. For this exercise, we’ll look at an Apple options trading idea. The goal is to take advantage of the extremely high volatility leading into the earnings announcements by selling

Nasdaq 100 Symmetry: Potential for Several More Weeks Consolidation

By Brad Tompkins Back in September, I wrote a piece detailing the difficult trading period we experienced following the sharp drop last summer (Read: Technical Patterning Like Trying to Hit a Change Up).  Well, it’s déjà vu!  The current Nasdaq 100 index chart is forming an eerily similar pattern with the mirror image drop, then consolidation while the 20 day moving average curls back up to retake the 100 day moving

EEM Chart Note: Emerging Markets Breaking Out

By Brad Tompkins It has been a month since we last visited the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) chart (previous article) just as it broke lower to retest the 200 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). As it turned out, it was a short-lived breakdown that coiled enough energy to propel the index on an impressive jump higher. In fact, the momentum from the move has pushed the index above the top

IWM Chart Note: Nearing Important Price Zone

By Brad Tompkins I was running through some charts late yesterday and noticed that IWM (Russell 2000 iShares) is nearing an important support/resistance confluence zone. The reaction over the next week or two will tell us more about whether or not we’ll see a year-end rally. So keep an eye on the small caps. See chart below. ————————————— Twitter:  @BBTompkins and @seeitmarket     Facebook:  See It Market No position in any of the securities mentioned at

Emerging Markets (EEM) At Key Price Level

By Brad Tompkins The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) closed at a pivotal price level yesterday,  just below its 2 month range and between the 50 and 200 Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This area around 40.50 is an important confluence of support. With this in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a fake out jab lower (to fill the early September gap at $39.75) followed by a very important attempt

Forecasting the S&P 500 from GDP Data and What It’s Telling Us Now

By Brad Tompkins Last week the commerce department released their estimate of 2012 third quarter’s GDP growth rate. The preliminary 2.0% growth was better than 1.3% the previous quarter (revised down from 1.7%), but not much to celebrate. We’ve also now heard a little over half of the earnings announcements for the quarter. Ongoing projected GAAP earnings for the S&P500 is still on track for $90 per share for the year

Media Market Forecast: Positively Sunny with Chance of Torrential Downpour

By Brad Tompkins If you are trying to determine the current market disposition through popular financial media, you are hearing a great deal of contradiction. For instance, if twitter streams were able to produce a market weather forecast it would be something along the lines of “Positively Sunny with a Chance of Torrential Downpour.” The voices coming from the news and opinion feeds are definitely not in synchronized harmony and volume