On August 15th, I wrote a post for See It Market about waiting for a bounce in WTI Crude Oil Futures (or related exchange traded products) before going short. If you happened to sell into the 8/21 – 8/29 rally, I believe the timing is right to consider taking a partial or full profit here. Perhaps there is more downside, but being generally conservative myself, I’d probably step out of this market for the time being.
After falling for nearly 3 months, WTI Crude Oil prices appear to be nearing a potential bottom of sorts. The Crude Oil daily chart shows lower shadows on Thursday and today confirming aggressive buying around chart support at 91.88. This floor is based on multiple turning points going back to May 2013. And no doubt, traders are watching this area closely.
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart
As I mentioned, it’s certainly possible that crude has further to go before the downtrend from the June peak runs its course. But I don’t think it’s worth pressing here, especially with geopolitical tensions simmering. Sell rallies and buy back when intraday price weakness starts attracting buyers, particularly at technical support.
If you’re a Soros type with the wisdom and savvy to capture the larger moves in these markets, more power to you – I defer to you in knowing when the fundamental picture has changed. I know my limits – I’m better at capturing decent position and swing trades and usually (I do have my moments) less good at identifying larger tectonic shifts. My intuition is telling me this isn’t the time to push your luck in this market. Trade accordingly.
No position in any of the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.