Tag: u.s. economy
We Are Not On The 1970s Inflation Rollercoaster
We wrote this four-part inflation series in response to the graph below, implying that prices are on the same inflation roller coaster ride as...
The Federal Reserve Pauses: What Comes Next?
After hiking rates by 5.25% since March 2022, the Fed is in a wait-and-see period, commonly deemed a pause. Since the Fed started hiking...
Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?
In February 2023, we wrote Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE. The article walks through Michael Kantrowitz’s HOPE model. HOPE, or Housing, New Orders (ISM), Corporate Profits, and Employment,...
2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?
The following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning: Here’s why economists don’t expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create inflation.
In...
Janet Yellen Suggests Much Lower For Much Longer
On October 5, 2023, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a very telling statement about the future course of interest rates.
YELLEN SAYS DEBT SERVICE COSTS...
A Market Crisis Is Coming: Who Will Be Swimming Naked?
We recently wrote The Lag Effect Unveiled to appreciate why it takes time for higher interest rates to inflict economic damage. We follow that up with...
Wage Inflation: The Stats and Underlying Implications
While the UAW strike continues, and the debate on how much it matters in the scheme of things rages on, other wage trends are...
Interest Rate Hike Plateaus and Recessions: The Lag Effect Unveiled
Despite surging interest rates, there are few signs they are impeding economic activity or causing distress amongst borrowers. It may seem strange that higher...
Risk Free Government Debt: Fact Or Fiction?
Most investors believe that U.S. government debt is risk free. Why shouldn’t they, every economic and financial textbook, media outlet, and bond guru say...
Stimulus and Consumption Are Fueling Economic Resilience
The economy has marched forward, ignoring higher interest rates and consistent calls for a recession. Credit goes to “We The People,” the citizens of...
