S&P 500 futures outlook for March 21 sees the charts are holding a bullish trending formation, testing new near term highs but drifting back into support currently – momentum is mixed. Support to defend is at the region between 2025-2027 on S&P 500 futures. Buyers remain in control as long as we hold 2022.5. Resistance above 2042.5-2047.25. Tests of these ranges are likely to fail and retest, before continuing in the direction of either break – deep support is still likely to be defended. I suspect buyers will aggressively attempt to defend 2032-2034.
Momentum on the four hour chart is positive, and holding steady –slope of trend suggests buyers will still show up at key support levels. Continue to watch for higher lows to continue, if buyers hold momentum and bounce price off support.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sloping up; momentum is still positive, but weakening somewhat -this makes buying breakouts somewhat suspect.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
As oil rose into the 200 simple moving average on the composite chart, sellers were in wait and have driven the price down into Thursday’s levels, before trying to hold a bounce in the premarket today. The level for buyers to hold is 40.4 for bullish action to hold.
Today, the trading ranges are between 40.01 and 42.82. Breaks of these levels are likely retrace before moving again in the direction of strength.
Moving averages in oil show mixed signals and slightly dampening momentum is showing on longer time frames. Resistance sits near 42.48-42.8 – it seems buyers have their eyes on that range.
Intraday long trading setups on crude oil suggest a long off 40.40 positive retest (check momentum here), or 41.28 recapture and positive retest into 40.94, 41.24, 41.6, 42.25, 42.41, 42.78, 43.01, and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 43.12 to potentially 43.46.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 41.2 failed retest with negative divergence, or the failed retest of 40.36 sends us back through targets at 40.87, 40.42, 40.04, 39.6, and 38.67, if sellers hang on.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES_F)
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
The S&P 500 futures outlook continues to be bullish, though we may have gotten a little ahead of ourselves. The S&P 500 futures tested and breached resistance regions before being forced back into congestion near 2037. The levels between 2047.25-2044.5 serve as front line resistance, with 2022.5-2025 as support. Stretches north see 2054.5 as final targets north in this move, and deep support could be as far south at 2014.
Upside motion on S&P 500 futures has the best setup on the positive retest of 2034.5 or a recapture of 2039.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2037.25 are 2040.5, 2044.5, 2047.5, 2050.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2054.75 and 2057.5. The higher lows will keep you on the right side of the long trade.
Downside motion on S&P 500 futures opens below the failed retest of 2032 or at the failed retest of 2036 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2032 gives us the targets 2028.75, 2025.5, 2021.25, 2019.5, 2015.5, 2012.25, 2010.25, 2005.5, 2001.75, and perhaps 1997.5 if selling really takes hold (unlikely in this formation, but clearly possible if buyers lose their footing).
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
