Federal Reserve Outlook Changes Slightly: What’s Next?

Summary of the Federal Reserve Decision (Kobeissi Letter):

1. Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged for 7th straight meeting 

2. Officials raise 2024 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.6% 

3. Median forecasts shows just 1 rate cut in 2024

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4. Median forecast shows 100 bps of rate cuts in 2025 

5. Fed says inflation has eased “but remains elevated” 

6. Median 2024 Core PCE inflation estimate up from 2.6% to 2.8% 

The bottom line:

  1. The market remains divided with small caps versus growth stocks
  2. Gold and silver sold off some from their highs, but closed higher
  3. We saw more calls for a market top coming soon
  4. The long bonds (chart) above continue to hold the key on risk off/on

On June 3rd, the Daily covered the long bonds.

Here are the thoughts/answers from June 3rd in bold, answers today in red bold:

Monetary Policy: June FED meeting- When the Fed signals a shift toward lower interest rates, bond prices tend to rise- are they getting ready to do a June cut? They did not cut and may not cut until after the election-that is a good thing for confidence in the economy

Economic Conditions: A moderating economy, dovish central bank discourse, and forecasts for milder GDP growth can all contribute to bond rallies. At the end of this week, we will see the updated non farms payroll number-is unemployment increasing? Jobs number was strong, but nuanced-Fed says economy strong

Inflation Expectations: If inflation remains subdued, bond markets anticipate progress, leading to rallies-PCE last week came in with some areas of inflation subdued. CPI comes in flat-not enough for the Fed to cheer-as not near their target, but they hinted they could lower if inflation falls further

Supply and Demand: When demand for bonds exceeds supply (more buyers than sellers), bond prices rally. China has been selling US bonds-are they done? Seems like China paused-and could go back to selling-yet the demand from recent auctions in the US are better

Hence, the Gordian Knot is yet to be untied (from Monday’s Daily market update).

Now let’s look at the chart:

tlt treasury bond etf breakout price resistance june federal reserve statement image

And the long bonds rallied right to the 50-week moving average and stopped.

If TLT clears, note the Leadership chart. We would be concerned if TLT begins to outperform SPY.

For a full dive into commodities and stagflation investing, please click here to join me at the Money Show June 13th at 12:25 PM ET.

Twitter: @marketminute

The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.