The following chart and data highlight non-commercial commodity futures trading positions as of April 3, 2017.
This data was released with the April 6 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). Note that these charts also appeared on my blog.
The chart below looks at non-commercial futures trading positions for crude oil. For the week, crude oil traded lower by -4.4%.
Crude Oil Futures
April 6 COT Report Spec positioning: Currently net long 734.5k, down 35.7k.
Nine sessions ago crude oil failed to make new highs, reversing lower off high marked on January 25. This was a bearish signal. This week, Spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil tested the 50-day moving average, and lost. Crude oil took a big hit on Friday when it lost 2.3 percent – now it is testing its uptrend line.
A failure here raises the likelihood that crude oil tests support at $60, which in all likelihood takes place next week. This support also approximates the daily lower Bollinger band.
Non-commercial traders are still heavily net long. A loss of $60 on the cash can lead them to continue to cut back. In this scenario, $55 is the next support, which is where the 200-day moving average rests.
The EIA report for the week of March 30 showed crude production continued its uptrend – up 27,000 barrels per day to 10.46 million b/d.
Distillate stocks rose too, by 537,000 barrels to 129.5 million barrels.
Crude oil and gasoline stocks, however, fell – down 4.6 million barrels and 1.1 million barrels to 425.3 million barrels and 238.5 million barrels, respectively.
As did crude oil imports, which dropped 250,000 b/d to 7.9 mb/d.
Refinery utilization inched up seven-tenths of a percentage point to 93 percent.
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Author may hold a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Â Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
