- After a slow start, ticket sales are tracking above year-ago levels
- July and August boast a gaudy movie-release lineup
- Amid corporate actions and shake-ups in the entertainment industry, there’s a new top dog on the film count
Looking to beat the heat? After a scorcher from that pesky heat dome last week across the Midwest and Northeast, movie theaters yearn for your arrival. The second half of the year is filled with potential blockbusters, but the big screen remains a show-me story, and the weather plays a leading role.
Recall that the Memorial Day weekend was a record-setter, due in part to unusually cold and rainy conditions along the I-95 corridor. Ticket revenue tallied an estimated $326 million.1
The numbers were so impressive that shares of AMC (AMC), Marcus Corporation (MCS), and Cinemark (CNK) were given a standing ovation from Wall Street the following Tuesday. Moviegoer volume has not been all that stirring since that weekend, however.
The 2025 Hollywood box office has indeed been a rollercoaster ride. There have been smashes and flops, but all told, the first half tracks about on par with what we’ve seen in the post-pandemic era.
At $3.9 billion through June 26, it’s a solid showing, a modest bust from “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” notwithstanding.2
2025 Tracking 16% Above Last Year’s US Box Office Gross Ahead of the Fourth of July Weekend
The industry continues to search for its next “Barbenheimer” moment—two summers ago, ticket sales soared upon the simultaneous release of two studio juggernauts, Warner Bros. Pictures’ (WBD) “Barbie” and Universal Pictures’ (CMCSA) “Oppenheimer.” The showdown between Greta Gerwig’s and Christopher Nolan’s hits began on July 21, in the deep heart of summer.
By the fall, “Barbie” had grossed $1.445 billion worldwide, while “Oppenheimer” produced $976 million in ticket sales, both far above their budgets of $145 million and $100 million, respectively.3
By contrast, “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” from Paramount Pictures (PARAA) wasn’t Tom Cruise’s best financial showing. The 2025 action movie has notched $180 million at the box office in its first five weeks.4 Not abysmal, but it tracks well below what “Oppenheimer” produced.
2025’s Stars and Themes
This year’s domestic stars include the April 4 release of Warner Bros. Pictures’ “A Minecraft Movie” at $424 million and the Memorial Day weekend debut of Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures’ “Lilo & Stitch” with $390 million, according to Box Office Mojo by IMDbPro data.5
Universal’s “How to Train Your Dragon” is off to a fast start, registering $172 million in ticket sales in less than two weeks on screen. Holidays can be crucial—Disney’s “Captain America: Brave New World,” Marvel’s first major release of the year, is No. 4 in 2025 with $200 million US gross after it hit the big screen over the Presidents’ Day weekend.
What can we glean from the first six months of the calendar? Well, it seems nostalgia remains in vogue as audiences crave familiar brands. But horror and even some low-budget titles continue to thrive. What’s more, there may be box office momentum considering that January and February ticket sales were unusually low. Finally, we profiled the success of “Ne Zha 2” last time, and what’s happening internationally can’t be ignored.
Grab Your Popcorn: Upcoming Featured Attractions
With a domestic box office poised to print $4 billion by the Fourth of July weekend—likely up 15% or more over the same period last year—it’s been a solid first half, and a spate of potential blockbusters is in the queue. “F1 The Movie” was the first major summer test upon its full US release on June 27, and it was just the beginning. Here are some of the heavyweights on tap:
July 2: Jurassic World Rebirth (CMCSA)
July 11: Superman (WBD)
July 18: I Know What You Did Last Summer (SONY)
July 25: The Fantastic Four: First Steps (DIS)
July 25: Happy Gilmore 2 (NFLX)
August 1: The Bad Guys 2 (CMCSA)
August 1: The Naked Gun (PARAA)
August 8: Freakier Friday (DIS)
August 8: Weapons (WBD)
We noticed an interesting shift compared to our early-quarter review of upcoming films. In mid-April, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) led the pack with 11 scheduled releases through the middle of the third quarter. In May, it separated into two companies, one for its Studio operations and the other dedicated to its STARZ business.
Today, Comcast steals the show with 12 titles under its Universal Studios banner. Netflix remains a star, with 11 at-home movies on tap, while Sony Pictures Studios and the Disney labels are expected to have a high Q3 volume.
Comcast, Netflix, Sony, and Disney Are the Summer’s Highest-Volume Studios
The Bottom Line
2025 has been a decent showing so far, pleasing Hollywood producers, but even with a star-studded movie-release list on tap, there are risks. Namely, the health of the consumer. With a weakening jobs market and recession fears lingering, what happens at the macro level shouldn’t be discounted. Moreover, so-called “superhero fatigue” has set in to an extent, prompting Hollywood to step up its creative game. Still, if these summer films deliver, 2025 could end as the strongest post-pandemic year yet.
Sources:
1 Movie theater stocks soar after record-breaking Memorial Day box office, CNBC, Sarah Whitten, May 27, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com
2 Domestic Box Office For 2025, Box Office Mojo, June 26, 2025, https://www.boxofficemojo.com
3 Barbenheimer, wikipedia, June 26, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org
4 Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Box Office Mojo, Jun 26, 2025, https://www.boxofficemojo.com
5 Domestic Box Office For 2025, Box Office Mojo, June 26, 2025, https://www.boxofficemojo.com
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
