Stock Market Futures Outlook for August 15, 2016 – S&P 500 Futures Push Higher, But In The Face Of Slowing Momentum.
Traders have pushed the price action higher once more, as S&P 500 futures trading August 15 works on a breakout over 2184.5. Momentum continues to be unimpressive, but holding. So we continue to watch the price action closely and stay long on the pullbacks. New price support sits near 2178.5 and heavy congestion lies between 2174-2177.5 region. Price resistance has shifted up slightly into 2187.25, but could stretch into 2189.75.
Buyers are still in charge, and pullbacks on the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) are still likely to be bought. That said, they could be deeper support levels, as momentum is not aggressive, and continues to dampen.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Trading August 15 – ES_F Chart
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2184.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2178.5 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2178.5 are 2180.5, 2183.5, 2185.5, 2187.5 and if we expand, we may stretch above into 2189.75 and 2191.5. Trading remains timid.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2180, or at the failed retest of 2183 with negative divergence. Keep your eyes on the lookout for higher lows developing intraday. Retracement into lower levels from 2183 gives us the targets 2180.75, 2177.75, 2175.75, 2172.5, 2169.5, 2164.5, 2161.5, 2157.5, and 2153.5, if sellers take over.
If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.
Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F)
The NQ_F broke to new highs again in premarket – the base of the upper targets near 4818.5. The chart is holding the breakout levels above 4811. Big expansions upside should still fade, as momentum remains indecisive. Support sits at 4802. Below that, we see congestion near 4796.5 -4792.25 that will serve as lower support. Resistance is higher, between 4818.75-4825.5, with a breach that could stretch into 4836, if buyers continue their press forward. Retests of support action for long entries have worked nicely, and should continue to do so. Pay attention to lower highs or lower lows developing, as this could signal a rollover event.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4817, or a positive retest of 4811.25 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4811.25 are 4814.25, 4816.25, 4818.25, 4821.5, 4825.75, and 4829 to 4836, if buyers continue the rally north.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4811, or at the failed retest of 4826.5 with negative divergence (particularly important here). Retracement into lower levels from 4826.5 gives us the targets 4821.5, 4818.25, 4814.5, 4811.5, 4806.25, 4802.25, 4797.5, 4793.75, 4790.25, 4786.5, 4781.5, 4776.75, and 4772.5 to 4766.5, if sellers resume control.
Crude Oil
Oil continued a rally into resistance levels near 45.3, but did not test an important level near 45.39. Rejecting a lower level near 45.15 has propelled the traders into a bit of selling that leaves us sitting at a prior resistance level near 44.4. This would be a test to see if old resistance is now capable of being support. Support holds at 43.4, but we are holding well above those levels at this time. Resistance sits near 45.43, with 45.57 above that.
Trading ranges for crude oil should hover between 43.4 and 45.57.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 44.4, or at a bounce off 43.84 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 43.84 are 44.02, 44.14, 44.43, 44.74, 45.014, 45.39, 45.57, and the outside chance that we see 46.04, if buyers power forward.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 44.15, or at the failed retest of 44.86 with negative divergence. There is also a short sitting at range expansion into 46.08, but that would be an unusual stretch and need quite a bit of divergent action. Targets from 44.86 are 45.94, 45.64, 45.54, 45.39, 45.15, 44.97, 44.74, 44.47, 44.2, 43.86, 43.54, 43.32, and 43.04, if sellers really resume control.
If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.
Visit TheTradingBook.com for more information.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
