The S&P 500 Futures ($ES_F) chart begins a third day of range bound activity between 2075 and 2092.
We should have a week of thin volume, which normally creates a mildly bullish slant (typical holiday time trading). That said, we are still showing a little bit of a bias towards the sellers as the chart drifts into support.
I suspect a sideways trading day, but the edges -2081 for a drift into the deeper support areas of 2075, and 2092.75 for a rise into higher resistance areas of 2099 – should be watched. Formations are mildly bearish but weak, hence my commentary on range bound activity.
Near-term S&P 500 Futures support now lies beneath near 2075 region and near term resistance near 2092 region. Breaches are likely to retest before continuing due to damp momentum readings.
Short time frame momentum indicators are bearish, and lower than Friday. Longer cycles are still bullish, but momentum is tepid at best. All indicators on longer time frames at this point show buyers still in charge, but their strength is not aggressive.
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RANGE OF MONDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil ($CL_F) –A deeper drift lower into 40.41 brought buyers back this morning. Then the chart completely retraced Friday’s motion. Odd action in oil but feels like buyers are making a play for the bottom here. The critical region that needs to holds for buyers is near 41.4. Lots of bearish sentiment with the rising dollar and overhead supply.
The breakout region for Crude Oil is now 42.1 for the upside and 40.8 for the downside today. Retest of 42.1 sends us near 42.8, then 43.3, and perhaps into 44. Breakdown below 41.4 sends us near 40.79 to 40.14, and perhaps into 39.9. Momentum on short time frames is still mixed.
S&P 500 Futures ($ES_F)
Chart With Levels For The Week
Upside motion is best set up on the bounce off the support line near 2081.75. If the buyers have limited power, the chart will fail to breach and hold 2092.75. This is similar to the setup on Friday due to the channel formation. Momentum is neutral. A hold of 2082 should deliver 2087.25, then 2089.5, 2092.5, 2094.25, and potentially 2097.25, and 2100.25 as S&P 500 futures targets.
Downside motion below the failed retest of 2081, or at the failure to hold 2087.25 (watch momentum- that would be aggressive) opens a short opportunity. Short trades should be staged into support and then cautiously watched after some profit is taken, until we fail 2045 on a retest- that level represents a very strong buying support zone and will keep the chart essentially bullish on larger time frames. Buyers are still in charge, though patterns look very tired. Retracement into lower levels from 2080 give us the S&P 500 futures targets at 2077.5, then 2075.75, 2071.5, 2067.75.
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