Tag "us dollar"

U.S. Equities Short-Term Technical Outlook – March 20

Most of the world stock market indexes are fractionally today, including the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX). German and Italian bond yields are slightly higher, while the US Dollar (CURRENCY:USD) is largely unchanged vs most of the Majors. Equities have failed to show the kind of upside continuation that was thought to…

3 COT Report Charts For Commodities Traders (Feb 3)

The following is a recap of the February 3 Commitment of Traders Report (COT) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at Commitment of Traders data and futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of January 31. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this…

US Equities Resilient: Health Care Strong; Dollar Bottoming

Overall, prices fell down to key make-or-break support and held up miraculously well yet again. Tuesday’s breadth was far better than that seen on Monday, even when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) was down 180 with hardly any more Declining issues than Advancing.  Momentum dipped on hourly charts, but…

Are Investors Pulling Too Much “Awesome” Forward?

  U.S. markets have “celebrated” the Trump election, with the S&P 500 () rising ~8% after a quick ~4% drop pre-election (and much deeper drop in futures the night of the election). There are quite a number of themes, positive and negative, continuing into the new year. The “positives” –…

The COT Report: 3 Charts For Commodities Traders

The following is a recap of the January 6 COT Report (Commitment Of Traders Report) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at COT data and futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of January 3. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this blog…

S&P 500 Update: Upside Potential Into Mid-January

S&P 500 Futures (2-3 Days) – Bullish – Pullbacks ended up being minor by end of day yesterday, and prices retraced nearly all the weakness to close near highs. This is a short-term positive development. Movement up to near 2285 looks likely into January 12 before any peak. A move under…

US Dollar Update: These Two Charts Point To Further Upside

When the US Dollar (CURRENCY:USD) rallied 25%across 2014/2015 it triggered a series of ripple effects that reverberated across global markets and economies, weighing heavily on commodities and forcing tightening of financial conditions in the US and emerging markets. As an investor having good handle on the outlook for the US…

December 23 COT Report (Commodities): Watch That Dollar!

The following is a recap of the December 23 COT Report (Commitment Of Traders Report) released by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) looking at COT data and futures positions of non-commercial holdings as of December 20. Note that the change in COT report data is week-over-week. Excerpts of this blog…

Stock Market Update: Positioning For Potential Year-End Rally

The market got a bit overextended and needed a breather. Although the broader construct of the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is bullish, I am bearish over the very near-term (until highs are exceeded on a closing basis). I expect lower prices in the very short run (2-3 days), perhaps down to…