Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week of March 11)

David Katz

THE BIG PICTURE

The stock market up-trend has been resilient. While the short-term trend was disrupted last week for a quick pullback, the broader trend is still up.

From the jobs report to the Boeing (BA) news, there is sa lot of “noise” out there. Note as well that the recent negative news hasn’t helped the bears much (yet).

As traders, it is smart to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and tune out the noise and opinions.

Below is my monthly, weekly and daily trading charts with an updated stock market trends outlook. Let’s begin today’s update by looking at chart of a broad stock market index, the S&P 500.

Current Technical Trends – Week of March 11, 2019

S&P 500 (SPY) Daily / Weekly

s&p 500 index long term stock market analysis trends bullish forecast month march year 2019

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

SPY Daily (up close)

s&p 500 stock market trading trends short term anlaysis bullish week march 11

Insights and Data Highlights:

$SPY pullback is within short-term MML range.

Short-term daily range from $281 MML resistance down to $273 support holds.

60 day MML range at Major S/R – 50% pullback – Uptrend

90 day MML range holding above midway Major S/R – Uptrend

Long Term bounce off support at 234 holding breaks 277 reversal down to 273.

Price action remains above key moving averages.

10ema>200sma>PRICE>50ema>100sma; looking for all in sync for push higher.

10 day EMA support since January 4th broke on 3/06.

5/10ema crossover to downside.

RSI working down to Oversold zone.

VIX Volatility Index continues to vacillate around 13-17; Closes at low 16’s.

Key Events in the market this week

  • USA:January Retail, Quad Witch, CPI
  • Earnings:
    • Dollar General
  • Chip giants reports
  • Futures contract expires end of the week

The Bottom Line

Last week: Technically, the momentum remains upside above the 10ema. Watch the 5ema for even shorter support and look for any crossover of the two for pullback opportunities back upside off the MML.

Seems market played well off the MML resistance down to the 200ma and MML support on the short term. With three out of the 4 MML ranges remaining in an uptrend, no change in overall market direction mid to long term.

Moving averages continue to be out of sync as the 5 crosses 10ema downside and we are back at the 200ma.

Upside Probability: Watch for price action to break and hold above the 200 as the 5 crosses back upside over the 10ema. Key here is whether we hold above MML support/200ma. Halfway 277 is the next level up.

Downside Probability: With the 5/10ema cross downside and supporting market internals downside, market may test the 50ma and short term overbought/reversal levels. Deeper selling will test the 269-265 range if market internals continue to drop to oversold conditions.

Monitoring the 4hr charts for either direction and splicing in on a 60m chart cuts out the noise.

For the intraday trader, both directions offer opportunity. Swing traders, be ready for pullbacks of MML major support off 4 hour charts. Long term, sit quietly and wait to re-balance at lower price at the end of Q3.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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