Stock Market Outlook: Will Clouds Rain On Bulls Parade?

The S&P 500 Index barely budged by the end of the Thursday (-0.04%), but we actually saw the daily range in excess of the Average True Range on all four of our key equity indices.

The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Russell 2000 continue to have strongly bullish intermediate postures; meanwhile, the Dow Jones transitioned to strongly bearish.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off by 0.62% and is currently trading below its falling 30 day moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a “3 Red Arrows” signal.

The NASDAQ Composite was Thursday’s clear winner (+0.87%), partially due to growth stocks benefitting from falling interest rates. The NASDAQ Composite has a “3 Green Arrows” signal.

Elsewhere, the Russell 2000 fell for the fourth straight day (-1.18%), but finished well off the session’s lows where it bounced at its rising 30 day moving average.

Friday is a June expiration day; the only concern of the 7 trades we have expiring tomorrow is the IWM bear call spread, which could go either way.

The big macro story of the last two days has been the U.S. Dollar surge. The Dollar is now trading above its rising 30 day moving average for the first time in over 2 months. The strong Dollar pressured commodities; gold was hammered by 3% and now has a weakly bearish posture (oil finished 1.46% lower but still has a bullish posture)

Interest rates have whipsawed since yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting; today the 10 year Treasury Yield fell to 1.51% and government bonds hit multi-month highs.

Defensive and interest rate sensitive areas were today’s sector leaders(Real Estate, Technology); cyclical and Dollar-sensitive areas were the losers (Materials, Energy, Financials).

Our trade application example featured a bullish swing trade on TrueCar (TRUE) due to recent bullish Near-Term divergence signals and because the stock seems to be finding support in the vicinity of prior horizontal resistance and is still just above its rising 30 day moving average

Get market insights, stock trading ideas, and educational instruction over at the Market Scholars website.

Stock Market Outlook Video – News, Analysis, & Insights for June 18

Twitter:  @BrandonVanZee and @MarketScholars

The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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