The Index Futures Market – Big Picture
I find it helpful to go back to the prior week of trading action and review the setups and what happened. Sometimes taking a step back allows traders to see the market from 50,000 feet and better understand where stocks may be headed (and stock market futures).
I think this also allows for higher probability setups because we have a better idea of the overall market structure and trend. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such practice.
Okay, let’s start the review what happened and finish with a look ahead on key stock market futures indices…
Futures: Looking at the week behind…
Let’s focus on the Nasdaq futures (NQ). It was a volatile week of trading the NQ this week – and the other stock market futures indices, for that matter. The first week of February saw low volume Monday as the market action came down from the Friday “Bank of Japan” rally.
But it was quickly back into sell mode closing out the open gaps left from the week prior. Thursday’s price action was no doubt the toughest of the week with prices all over the place. It ended up being an inside day but set the stage for a trend day on Friday.
With all it’s volatility this past week, I had the best week ever on the NQ as implementing a modification as to how far I would let 2 contracts run before taking 1 off while using the 50/144ema to keep me in the TREND. The use of the fib projection and 96% projection levels have been welcome to the room as 4/5 days this week (TF 5/5 days) the levels were hit.
Crude Futures moved sideways this last week pushing both extremes after fading off the 61.8% fib retracement. Crude Oil has yet to find its way back upside to close out open gaps. All this amidst continued calls for price to come down as low as $7 by Deutsche bank! The end of January had price regaining some traction upside but quickly fell back into the downward demise. The technical bias remains BEARISH on ALL time frames.
Equities: Market Cap Leaders
Starting Next week
Utilizing the same T3 strategy for stock market futures, I will look at the top 6 Market Cap Leaders and assess current market TREND opportunities for NFLX, FB, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL and SBUX. Whether you trade the options, swing or intraday position, the big picture will allow you to assess potential greater probability entries based on market momentum.
As a follower of @Jasonkelly for some long term strategies, I will begin in March every month to review some of the holdings that can be easily managed 4 times per year without concerning yourself over the intraday volatility of the market.
Looking at the week ahead…
Stock market futures indices are now fading back downside, in tow with key equities. The market is now back in a confirmed BEARISH TREND. Bulls will look to build value and point of control at Fridays lows. With a bearish stance going into Superbowl Sunday’s stock market futures open, it will take the overnight session to move us back upside on the Globex charts (50-100 tick and 4 hour T3 moving averages) to regain some Bullish positioning. Bullish momentum could continue if we break the 4 hour chart on a 50/144ema which we gave up this last week. Once we break that 144ema upside, open gaps above will be the short term targets for the market.
For the long term picture, markets clearly remain in a downtrend. The short-term pic is now in a bearish position on the 4 hour charts. We continue to close out previous days open gaps below with numerous open points of control on the NQ volume profile above the rest of the stock market futures indices. Crude oil now under the 50ema which can easily turn on a dime with news that production will be cut.
Technical Bias & Charts leading into the second week of February
continue to the next page for more futures charts and analysis…