Stock Market Futures Trading Update (July 1)

Traders are making the bet that news of trade talks between the US and China will mean higher stock prices.

The S&P e-Mini futures contract (ES_F) are making new all time highs while the mini Nasdaq futures (NQ_F) and mini Dow futures (YM_F) sit below all time highs.

Price resistance levels outside these highs are estimated with either Fibonacci’s or measured moves. Bullish behavior suggests that we will bounce off the support tests but caution with size is recommended here as divergences exist across the board.

Gold continues its retrace into my second target of 1387 (see prior posts) before bouncing early this morning – suggesting the retrace is solidly in play. That said, a bounce into 1397 that holds will likely push us back into 1412 before another fade so the path is messy.

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The US dollar is creating a bottoming formation for now near 96-95.6- and bounced nicely after the news. Remember that the goal is for the dollar to remain weak so that exports can gain traction against other currencies so we’ll need to keep our eyes on the FOMC as they come out in July. 

If the Fed slashes the rate by 50 basis points it will no doubt propel the markets higher with the relaxation news of the trade wars easing. This double punch could easily provide the inoculation that the markets need to avoid continued slowing. That, however, will be a band-aid on a much bigger situation brewing (more at another date on that).

THE BIG PICTURE – Daily momentum is positive and near critical support. Lots of premarket movement could fade then resume the bounce.

s&p 500 futures trading chart price july 1 market news

INTRADAY RECAP – Bullish but cautious. Selling ES will be tricky without intraday exhaustion but the Fibonacci level to watch is near 2984.5 with stops a bit tighter- or buying near 2970 – with tighter stops also. Getting chopped up would be likely so watch your size. Whipsaw is likely between these two levels. Holding 2960.5 is a critical zone. Pullbacks into shallow supports will find buyers waiting intraday at the first pass and traders have a positive to neutral slant overall.

POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL SLANT – Manage your risk by waiting to the edges and playing the range with a slight bullish slant intraday. 

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.