Stock Market Outlook for November 1, 2016 –
The S&P 500 futures chart closed the month above the critical level of support at 2120. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) remains plagued by active sellers trying to force price down. The latest bounce was weak and did not penetrate 2131 on S&P 500 futures. Buyers may try to do that today, but momentum says it will be a tough road. The key area of price support is still between 2112.25 and 2118. Shorting will continue to be a risky bet, however, until it shows proper breakdown form. Tight congestion patterns are still holding between 2123 and 2137. Lower price support comes in near 2113-2107, and upper price resistance sits at 2141-2147.5.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Trading Chart – November 1
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2131.75, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2120.5 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2120.50 are 2126.5, 2130.75, 2136.5, 2140.5, 2142.5, 2144.75, and 2149.5.
Downside trades – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2118.5, or at the failed retest of 2129(watch for the higher low if this is attempted) with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2129 give us the targets of 2124.5, 2121.75, 2118.75, 2112.5, and 2107.25.
Nasdaq Futures
The NQ_F faded deeply once more and is presenting a lower high, but holding its lows from yesterday. The level to breach in the $NQ_F will be 4820 and as long as we stay below that level, we remain prone to selling pressure. Resistance areas are 4824 to 4838. Support sits in the region between 4754 and 4784.
Upside trades Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4820, or a positive retest of 4800.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Bounces might be big, but are likely to give way to selling in the current pattern. Targets from 4800.75 are 4805.75, 4816.25, 4820.75, 4824.25, 4829.5, 4834.25, 4840.5, and 4849.5.
Downside trades – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4800 (needs negative momentum here for continuation), or at the failed retest of 4816.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4816.5 are 4813.75, 4806.5, 4801.75, 4797.75, 4790.5, and 4776.25.
Crude Oil
Oil continues its cascade downward with the API report after the close. The formation of the monthly candle is an inverted hammer, but its location says little about whether price action can truly hold its location. We are now headed to deeper support near 46.4 but we could see 46.17 as well. The chart holds negative momentum for now.
Trading ranges for crude oil this week are 46.04 to 50.88 in the current pattern.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 47.3, or at a positive retest off 46.76 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.76 are 46.94, 47.15, 47.28, 47.54, and 47.72.
Downside trades can be staged on the failed retest of 46.55, or at the failed retest of 47.54 with negative divergence. Targets from 47.54 are 47.26, 47.04, 46.9, 46.72, 46.57, 46.4, and 46.18. See the blog for additional targets.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
