S&P 500 Futures Trading In Jagged Range: Decision Time

S&P 500 futures trading in a jagged range. On Monday, S&P 500 futures drifted into deeper support again before bouncing off a key level near 1838. We hold this level as of this print but charts remain vulnerable to sellers continuing the downward march as long as we sit below 1865.

S&P 500 futures price support levels have been weakly defended. The big test here is to see whether the sellers have enough power to keep the charts below 1857 (our first “tell”). This is the line in the sand to watch. A breach and hold there sends us to 1865, and potentially higher –else, we’ll see lower levels.

The Morning Report: Decision Time

The charts nearing a decision zone this morning. Bounces are likely to be sold – but look for higher lows to see if buyers gain confidence in any advance higher.

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Intraday resistance for S&P 500 futures sits near 1859.5. Intraday support for S&P 500 futures sits at 1832. We still sit in jagged trading ranges- all the while underlying momentum holds a slightly positive drift as we test these old support levels. Pressure is trying to build upward, but the selling has been stronger in spite of divergent momentum.

Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sitting in negative territory but lifting. Longer cycles are downward trending and holding steady in negative territory.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.



Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)

Crude oil futures continue to trade like it is trying to base. Buyers are still stationed between 29.54- 29.96

Today, the trading ranges for crude oil futures are between 29.8 and 30.68, with breaches leading to continuation in either direction. Failure to breach the 30.68 region suggests that momentum brings us near the test of 29.9 again and perhaps another dip lower if buyers fail to come in at key support levels.

Moving averages in oil are mixed but still lifting from a bigger picture across time frames – daily charts still show higher lows in general but the charts are clearly in a wait state. These moving averages are decidedly negative today but motion is divergent beneath. This also gives rise to our current and prolonged jagged price action.

Intraday long trading setups for crude oil futures suggest a long off 30.15 retest or 29.9 (with momentum showing positive, else that brings a lower high) into 30.35, 30.57, (30.65 resistance) 30.74, 30.94, 31.38, 31.67, 31.85, 32.05, and perhaps 32.47 if range expands

Intraday short trading setups for crude oil futures suggest a short below a 30.6 failed retest or a failed retest of 29.9 with negative divergence showing sends us to 30.35, 30.16, 29.94, 29.75, 29.59, 29.27 and perhaps 28.58. Aggressive selling could arise at any time below 29.96, so be careful trying to catch bottoms.


E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F)  

Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.

sp 500 futures chart stock market february 9

The S&P 500 futures chart holding steady near deeper support levels -1850- just like yesterday at this time. A region of important support to maintain remains near 1845-1847.  Building support there will give buyers confidence to advance their agenda.

Upside motion has the best setup on the positive retest of 1847.5 – or a retest after expansion above 1859.5. S&P 500 futures targets from 1847.5 are 1850.5, 1857.5, 1860.5, 1861.25, 1864, 1866, 1868, 1871 and if we can catch a bid there, we could recapture 1880 -1886. Big resistance test sits at the region between 1884-1889. Be careful- watch the higher lows to keep you on the right side of the long trade. Expansions upside over the longer term could see 1942 to 1960.

Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 1844 or at the failure to hold 1860 bounce. Retracement into lower levels from 1860 gives us the targets at 1854.5, 1851.25, 1847.75, 1842, 1838, 1834.5 and perhaps 1826.5.  Below there, we have significant drops likely. 1804.75, 1794, 1763, 1721, and 1614 lie below as longer term potential target zones for S&P 500 futures if buyers do not provide support. We’ll keep our eyes on these expansion zones if the charts fail to bounce

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.


Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.