The S&P 500 futures outlook for March 7 is somewhat mixed. As I suspected, range expansion was met with rejection and charts are currently testing support levels near 1987.
A rally above 1997.75 on S&P 500 futures may hold but it is likely to produce a lower high than Friday’s high. Charts currently do not point to any range expansion today that will hold.
It should be noted that S&P 500 futures will become vulnerable to sellers below 1986.5 and will accelerate below 1981.
Momentum on the four hour chart is negative. Daily charts continue to show momentum as trending positive, though somewhat flattening, and in positive territory.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sloping down but still in positive territory. 1981.25 – 1984.5 is the support region to watch for sellers to test and for buyers to hold if this chart fails to move forward.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Looking at the outlook for crude oil futures, we can see that oil continues to rise as it stretches into major resistance and congestion between 36.54 and 37.07.
Today, the trading ranges on crude oil futures are between 36.15 and 36.78. Expansions outside those zones will retest, and if held will advance in the direction of the break. Use the 1hr chart to assist there.
Moving averages in oil show us at a decision zone with drifting momentum on longer time frames. This generally gives rise to buyers showing up when it seems like the chart will roll. Support holds tightly at 33.5
Intraday long trade setup suggests a long off 36.18 positive retest, or 36.74 expansion into 37.05, 37.29 and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 37.56, and 37.7 to potentially 38.2.
Intraday short trade setup suggests a short below a 36.15 failed retest with negative divergence, or the failed retest of 37.35 sends us back through targets at 37.12, 36.8, 36.59, 36.27, 36.18, and back into familiar regions seen near 35.3 if sellers hang on.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked on my blog for more targets.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES_F)
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
S&P 500 futures charts on March 7 are receding from Friday’s highs and have stalled near support levels of 1988.
If the chart fails to recapture and hold 1991.5, the region of 1981-1984 remains a congested zone and lower targets, else we have those levels near 1968 to look toward as targets. The S&P 500 futures chart will be vulnerable to selling below 1987, if it does not quickly recover after losing the level.
Upside motion has the best setup on the retest of 1987.75 or a breach of 1993 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 1987.75 are 1991, 1993, 1995.25, 1997.25, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand back into 2001.25 and beyond. The next big resistance for S&P 500 futures test sits at the region between 2011-2015, then 2021-2025. Watch the higher lows to keep you on the right side of the long trade. Charts are firming up, but expect pullbacks into higher support.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 1984 or at the failed retest of 1997.5 with negative divergence – but really watch for the higher lows there to tell you the short is ill positioned. Retracement into lower levels from 1984 gives us the targets 1981.5, 1974.75, 1971.25, 1968.75 and perhaps 1964.5 if selling really takes hold.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
