On April 28th, I sat down with Maggie Lake on her show, Maggie Lake Talking Markets.
While we covered a lot of topics on my mind lately, the consumer is the ultimate test on the next market and economic direction.
Remember, we look forward, not backwards.
The consumer, as seen through the eyes of the Retail Sector ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT), is positive but not decisive.
This daily chart of the Retail Sector ETF (XRT) shows why.
While holding critical support levels, the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) in blue eludes the price.
XRT on leadership underperforms, which is critical. We must have the consumers on board.
Real Motion is encouraging but has not yet shown impressive momentum. The red dots are close but need to clear the 50-DMA.
As for the rest of the conversation, you can hear it here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4h-awQ6VCh8&t=211s
Some of my notes for the segment:
Last time the gold to silver ratio peaked like it did on April 22 was October 2022.
From then on
- Silver prices rallied
- The yields relaxed and TLTs rallied (after a long rate hike cycle and pause)
- SPY bottomed but took months to start rallying (big chop until Spring 2023
- Dollar topped
Now in 2025
Gold to silver ratio peaks on 4/22-since then
- Silver prices rallying
- Long bonds bottoming (after a pause this year, will Fed lower)
- SPY may have bottomed but could chop around for months considering uncertainty
- Dollar broke a 6–8-year business cycle low and could trend lower
Twitter: @marketminute
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