Economic Spotlight: Rising Oil Prices & Treasury Yields Concerning

Sean Emory
price change crude oil treasury yields_us recessions history chart

CONSUMER WATCH: Below I present a chart showing a potentially deadly duo for the economy and consumers…

At least if the current trend doesn’t slow.

The chart below looks at the average rise in Crude Oil prices and 10 Year Treasury Yields plotted against US recessions.

A combined average rise of 63% for crude oil prices and the 10 year treasury yield. One is a “tax” on future consumption and other an input on liabilities. Not a great combo for consumers. I think this is dangerous for back half of 2018 if this trend continues.

The economy is humming along pretty good right now. But what will it look like later this year?  Keep an eye on this trend.

Thanks for reading.

price change crude oil treasury yields_us recessions history chart

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