- With 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting for the Q1 reporting season, EPS growth currently stands at 13.4%
- Three companies reporting this week have delayed their earnings dates: Fox Corp DaVita Inc. and NRG Energy
- This marks the final week of Q1 peak earnings season with 2,300 companies expected to report
The Q1 2025 earnings season heads into its final peak week with mostly positive results from S&P 500 companies thus far.
With 90% of companies from the index now reporting, 78% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, slightly better than what we’ve seen historically.
Furthermore, the average percentage by which companies are beating stands at 8.5%, better than the 10 year average of 6.9%, but slightly below the 5 year average of 8.8%. These better-than-expected results have pushed S&P 500 blended EPS growth to 13.4%, nearly double the expectation at the beginning of the season, and making it the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.1
Last week saw impressive results from some highly anticipated names. Two of the standouts were Palantir and Disney. Palantir beat on the top and bottom-line and increased full-year revenue guidance to $3.89B – $3.90B from a prior outlook of $3.74B – $3.76B due to robust adoption of its AI software.2 Disney also beat on the top and bottom-line when they reported Q1 results on Tuesday, thanks to better-than-expected subscriber growth for its Disney+ streaming platform.3
On the flipside, results from Wynn4, Clorox5 and Restaurant Brands International6 came in weaker than anticipated on profits and revenues, which could possibly serve as commentary on how consumers are willing to spend their money in the current environment. Headwinds mentioned on earnings calls ranged from the impact of tariffs to the cautious consumer, providing a good set up for the kick-off of the retail earnings parade this week.
On Deck This Week
In this final peak week of the first quarter earnings season, all eyes will be on the retailers. The world’s biggest retailer, Walmart, is set to release results on Thursday. Walmart has been firing on all cylinders as of late by stealing market share from competitors like Target and luring higher-income shoppers. In a recent note, Wells Fargo pegged Walmart as a winner in nearly any macroeconomic backdrop.7
Other consumer-facing names to watch this week include department store Dillards, fast casual chain Cava Group, footwear maker Birkenstock and Chinese e-commerce giants JD.com and Alibaba.
Outlier Earnings Dates This Week
Academic research shows that when a company confirms a quarterly earnings date that is later than when they have historically reported, it’s typically a sign that the company will share negative news on their upcoming call, while moving a release date earlier suggests the opposite.8
This week, we get results from a handful of large companies on major indexes that have pushed their Q1 2025 earnings dates outside of their historical norms. Three companies within the S&P 500 confirmed outlier earnings dates for this week, all of which are later than usual and therefore have negative DateBreaks Factors*. Those names are Fox Corp (FOXA), DaVita Inc. (DVA) and NRG Energy (NRG).
* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company’s 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.
Q1 Earnings Wave
The third and final week of peak earnings season takes place this week, with 2,300 names expected to report. Thus far, 87% of companies have confirmed their earnings date (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names), and 63% have reported results.
Sources:
1 Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, May 9, 2025, https://advantage.factset.com
2 Palantir Reports Q1 2025 Results, May 5, 2025, https://investors.palantir.com
3 The Walt Disney Company Reports Second Quarter and Six Months Earnings for Fiscal 2025, May 7, 2025 https://thewaltdisneycompany.com
4 Wynn Resorts, Limited Reports First Quarter 2025 Results, May 6, 2025 https://investors.wynnresorts.com
5 Clorox Reports Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Results, Updates Outlook, May 5, 2025
https://investors.thecloroxcompany.com
6 Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 Results, May 8, 2025
https://www.rbi.com
7 “This retailer wins no matter the economic backdrop, says Wells Fargo,” CNBC, Brian Evans, May 6, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com
8 Time Will Tell: Information in the Timing of Scheduled Earnings News, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Eric C. So, Travis L. Johnson, Dec, 2018, https://papers.ssrn.com
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
